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BY THE NUMBERS: Davidson’s offense ranks near the top, but these stats may be deceptive

Published

3 years ago

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They say that you can predict who is going to win a basketball game by focusing on the ‘Four Factors’ — shooting (effective field goal percentage), rebounding (offensive and defensive rebounding rates), turnovers (turnover rate), and getting to the free-throw line (free throw rate) — and generates how many points a team scores, and gives up, per 100 possessions.

We wanted to put this to the test and see where NC State and Davidson rank when put up against each other. Take a look.

Offensive Four Factors

Effective FG%
NC State – 52.7% (63rd)
Davidson – 55.5% (17th) •

Off Rebound%
NC State – 29.9% (107th) •
Davidson – 28.3% (157th)

FTA/FGA
NC State – 32.1 (161st) •
Davidson – 27.1 (283rd)

Turnover%
NC State – 18.6% (158th)
Davidson – 17.3% (88th) •


Defensive Four Factors

Effective FG%
NC State – 51.5% (232nd)
Davidson – 49.3% (136th) •

Off Rebound%
NC State – 32.6% (321st)
Davidson – 22.2% (12th) •

FTA/FGA
NC State – 29.3 (118th)
Davidson – 28.9 (111th) •

Turnover%
NC State – 22% (37th) •
Davidson – 16.2% (315th)

Now you’re probably wondering why it looks like the numbers are saying that Davidson is going to run away with this game, however, there is some deception going on.

When we break down these numbers in the regular season, you are comparing apples to apples. NC State and their opponents are playing the same level of talent night in and night out. That isn’t the case here.

The numbers you are seeing from NC State are with them going up against ACC-level talent on a nightly basis. Meanwhile, Davidson is playing in the A-10. But how much will that affect anything?

We think it will have a big effect.

There is no doubt that Davidson is one of the best offensive teams in the nation when you look at statistics, but when you watch them on film, you see a team that is big, poised, and can shoot it. However, they aren’t very athletic, and they seem to be susceptible to longer teams that apply pressure (ala NC State).  That, however, is for another article. This is the numbers article and when you look at them side by side, it looks like Davidson has the advantage.

The Wildcats are very efficient. They are very patient and they don’t turn the ball over. They have shooters at every spot and they work hard to get them open looks. On defense they do a great job of limiting second-chance points, however, they are not going to turn you over. I know this might sound weird, but Davidson is the team you get if you mixed Notre Dame and Virginia together.

With all of that said, it’s hard to use these numbers as much of an indicator of what will happen on Thursday. They are teams that have played very different competitions all year long. Davidson has spent the entire year being the biggest team on the court, however, against NC State, that won’t be the case.

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Afterglow
Afterglow
3 years ago

I never like playing Davidson.

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NC State Basketball

USC Transfer Power Forward Brandon Gardner Includes NC State In Top 6

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7 hours ago

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April 30, 2024

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USC Power Forward Brandon Gardner (6’8″/215) listed NC State in his Top-6 along with Jacksonville, San Francisco, Arizona St., Texas A&M and Arizona.

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Gardner was a 4-star prospect in the 2023 recruiting class, with Rivals ranking him as the #74 overall player nationally, and ESPN ranking him as the #2 player in the state of New York (Christ the King, New York City). He is originally from Waynesboro, Georgia. Prior to playing for Christ the King, Gardner played for Word of God Academy, so Raleigh is familiar to him.

Kevin Keatts and his NC State Coaching Staff offered Gardner when he was in high school.

Prior to committing to USC, Gardner was committed to St. John’s.

This past season Gardner only played in 4 minutes in 1 game for the Trojans, making it a redshirt season.

Gardner will have 4 years of eligibility wherever he lands.

 

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NC State Basketball

ECU PF Ezra Ausar is Taking an Official Visit to NC State Today

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12 hours ago

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April 30, 2024

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East Carolina Power Forward Transfer Ezra Ausar (6’9″/240) will be taking an Official Visit to NC State starting today.

Ausar just wrapped up his Sophomore season in Greenville, averaging 11.4 points and 4.7 rebounds, shooting 51.4% from the field. As a Freshman, he was named to the AAC All-Freshman Team, averaging 9.8 points and 5.3 rebounds.

Ausar is a consensus 4-Star prospect in the Transfer Portal, and ON3 ranks him as the #57 overall player in the Portal and the #9 Power Forward.

Originally from Atlanta, Ausar played his Senior Season of High School at Liberty Heights Athletic Institute in Charlotte, North Carolina. ON3 ranked Ausar as a 4-Star prospect coming out of high school, the #94 overall player nationally, and the #2 player in the state of North Carolina.

Ausar has visited Seton Hall, Georgia Tech, met over Zoom with Georgetown, and had an in-home visit with Utah. John Calipari and his staff at Arkansas have been in touch with Ausar, as well as Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Arizona State, West Virginia, Iowa State and St. John’s. (Link)

Ausar has 2 years of eligibility remaining, and NC State currently has 1 scholarship remaining.

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NC State Basketball

PI EXCLUSIVE: Bowling Green Transfer Guard Marcus Hill Explains Why He Chose NC State

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15 hours ago

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April 30, 2024

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Last week, Bowling Green Transfer Guard Marcus Hill (6’4″/185) committed to NC State. I caught up with Hill to get his take on why he chose to run with the Wolfpack.

What were the reasons that ultimately led you to commit to NC State? What other schools were recruiting you besides the Wolfpack?

The coaching staff was very professional and straight to the point. They had a detailed plan of my role on the team and how it transitions to the next level. The campus was beautiful, and everyone was super nice. There were several schools from each of the Power 5 conferences that we talked to. The list was very long, and I would like to thank every coach that showed interest in me.

Break down your Official Visit. What did you do? What impression did it make on you and your family?

After entering the campus and meeting the entire coaching staff, we also met with academic advisors. School staff was super nice and acted like we were already family. We had lunch and dinner with staff, the restaurants were prepared, and the food was awesome. We toured the campus with staff, and were treated with a lot of respect. My family enjoyed the coaches and the campus environment.

How did Coach Keatts say you would fit within his offensive system?

Coach Keatts had prepared film on how I would fit into the offense, so after watching the video it was clearly understandable what my role would be.

What impression did NC State’s Final Four run have on you? How did it influence your decision?

NC State’s Final Four run impressed me due to the guys on the team being overlooked and undervalued. They played together and were really enjoying the moment. Basketball can be stressful, however they made it look exciting and fun.

What type of player is NC State getting in Marcus Hill?

Marcus Hill Jr., I’m a great person with a great attitude. I love to win and compete in everything I do. I take pride in defense, but can score from anywhere on the court. I’m unselfish and love to see my teammates succeed. I’ve been overlooked and underestimated, but My God has the ultimate say so!

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This past season, Hill averaged 20.5 points and 5.0 rebounds per game for the Falcons. He earned 1st Team All-MAC honors. Even though he was only at Bowling Green one season, he had one of the best seasons in school history, scoring 698 points, which ranks 5th all-time in program history for a single season.

For his first two years of collegiate ball, Hill played for Southern Union State College (JUCO) in Alabama. In 2022-23, Hill earned 3rd Team NJCAA All-American honors, and ranked as the #32 overall Junior College prospect.

247Sports ranks Hill as a 4-Star Transfer Prospect, and the #87 overall player in the Transfer Portal, and the #12 Shooting Guard.

Even though 247Sports and ON3 consider Hill a Shooting Guard, NC State is recruited him as a Point Guard.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRh1suQzx08

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NC State Basketball

Guard Jayden Taylor will Return to NC State for his Final Year

Published

1 day ago

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April 29, 2024

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Guard Jayden Taylor will be returning to NC State for his final season of eligibility.

At this point, I was expecting him to return, but now it is official.

This past season, Taylor averaged 11.2 points and 3.6 rebounds per game, shooting 46.5% from the field and 36.4% from three, which was a new career high by almost 4%.

Taylor started the first 24 games of the season, but after struggling in January, he became the Wolfpack’s 6th man. Taylor excelled as the 6th man, playing some of his best basketball of the season in that role, giving his team a much needed boost whenever he entered the game.

The return of Taylor was essential to NC State’s success next season. In a world where everyone seemingly hits the Portal, seeing Taylor, Pass, Middlebrooks, O’Connell and Rice not do so is a good sign (I know they still could).

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