NC State Wolfpack vs. Dayton Flyers
Time: 4:00 PM
Location: Bahamas (Battle 4 Atlantis)
TV: ESPN News

As we just explained, this is a big game for NC State. The nation is watching after a very impressive showing vs. the reigning national champions and 3rd ranked Jayhawks yesterday. So what can you expect from Dayton in today’s matchup? Let’s dive in.

Dayton is 3-2 this season. They have losses to UNLV and Wisconsin (yesterday). The Wisconsin game was super sloppy and low scoring, but that’s kind of what the Badgers are going for. Dayton hates to be slowed down, they want to get out and run, which makes the NC State matchup a little more appealing to them.

Dayton doesn’t really have elite-level guards. Kobe Elvis, the sophomore, is 6’2, 170lbs. He’s long, but not super quick and he’s averaging 12 points per game, but he’s shooting just 23% from long range. He’s going to want to get to the rim to do his damage, but he’s not strong enough to consistently do that vs. the Pack’s guards. So where do they turn?

Their second-best guard, 6’6 Koby Brea didn’t travel to the Bahamas because of injury, so they’re left having to trust 6’0 sophomore Malekai Smith as their only other true guard. He’s just coming back from injury himself, but averaged 9 points last season, shooting 40% from 3pt range. However, he struggled vs. Wisconsin in his second game back, scoring just 2 points in 30 minutes, however, he did have 9 rebounds, 2 assist,s and 3 steals.

Again, these are the only two true guards that they played vs. Wisconsin and that’s going to be a problem with the Wolfpack’s relentless pressure from the backcourt. These guards are both too small and too weak to shut down the NC State backcourt.

That said, the Dayton front court is nothing to sneeze at.

6’10 sophomore DaRon Holmes is going to be a matchup problem. He’s one of these big, athletic forwards who is pretty physical and mobile. He’s not super coordinated, as in, he’s not going to take you out top and beat you off the dribble, or get you on the block and use some impressive footwork to get a back to the basket bucket. However, he runs the floor well, he’s a good shot blocker and he tries to dunk everything. Most of his points come on drop-offs from guards or from the break. He’s not great when you force him to play a set defense, but NC State’s bigs aren’t exactly that athletic. Mahorcic and Burns actually did a pretty good job on Adams for Kansas, but he’s just 6’7. Holmes is 6’10, so it will be interesting to see how they fare against this type of big (since they’ll see a lot of these types in the ACC).  Does their physicality and strength drown out the athleticism of Holmes or does Keatts need to use Dowuona a little more to match the length and athleticism?

Then there is his frontcourt mate, Mustapha Amzil, who is 6’9, 225lbs. Amzil is more agile and will attack off the dribble. He’s like a poor man’s version of Jalen Wilson (Kansas). He’s got the same type of game but he’s less athletic, not quite the shooter and not as polished. In fact, I think this is a great matchup for Jack Clark. Clark did a good job on Wilson yesterday, but as he tired down the stretch, Wilson was able to out-athlete him and get more physical with him. Amzil won’t be able to do that, so I think Clark can minimize the damage Amzil could do.

Then there is another 6’8, 220lb guy they throw out there. Toumani Camara. Camara is an athlete. This guy is just big, thick, and bouncy. He really can’t shoot, but he’s crafty on the drive and can elevate to finish. He is averaging 7 points and 12 boards. Morsell is going to have to match up with one of these 6’8 guys, and he’ll be giving up 5 inches, but he’s the Pack’s best defender, so if anyone is up for the challenge it’s him.

Keys for NC State

– Dayton is big and physical. They aren’t fast or quick , but they love to play uptempo. Kind of an interesting mix. NC State needs to keep them out of transition and that means, make shots. When you don’t, get back and stop the ball. Their guards aren’t dynamic, so staying in front of them and bottling them up shouldn’t be a huge concern if they can stay focused.

– Dayton is going to test NC State’s ability to rebound. The Pack matched an undersized Kansas front line in rebounding, but Dayton is going to cause problems. Their guards are great rebounders, and their front line is big, thick rebounders as well. They’re going to need Mahorci, Clark and Morsell to really get active on the boards if they want to limit second-chance points.

– Make Dayton shoot. This team is shooting just 26% from 3point range. They have only 2 real guards on the team right now. So it’s going to be a lopsided matchup. Does NC State exploit their lack of guards or does Dayton exploit NC State’s lack of athletic size? Usually the better guards win college basketball games, but NC State needs their guards to play at a high level and make up for the size disadvantage up front.

This game is at 4 pm on ESPN News.