NC State Basketball
Why do the NET Rankings Hate NC State?
NC State is currently ranked 77th in the NET Rankings. At this point, I think it’s a valid question to ask: Why do the NET Rankings hate NC State?
The Wolfpack have a 14-7 record overall, and a 7-4 record in the ACC. For comparison, Wake Forest has a 14-7 record, and a 6-4 conference record.
NC State is ranked 77th in the NET Rankings and the Demon Deacons are ranked 41st. What gives?
Let’s look at Team Value Index. While we don’t have the formula for exactly how this is calculated, the NCAA says that it “rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home.”
Neither NC State or Wake Forest have a Quad 1 win. The Wolfpack are 0-5 in Quad 1 games, and the Deacs are 0-3. When it comes to Quad 2 wins, Wake Forest (5-4) has one more than NC State (4-2).
When it comes to Quad 4 games, neither team has lost one, but NC State has played 2 more than Wake Forest.
So, the Wolfpack have played 2 more easy games (Quad 4), but also played 2 more difficult games (Quad 1).
They are both 3-0 in Quad 3 games, so lets take a look at Quad 2 games. Wake Forest does have 1 more Quad 2 win, and have played 3 more Quad 2 games.
Here is the average NET Ranking of Wake Forest’s 5 Quad 2 wins: 57.2
Here is the average NET Ranking of NC State’s 4 Quad 2 wins: 58.75
Something that I also think needs to be looked at is the fact that the average ranking of the Demon Deacons opponents in their 4 Quad 2 losses is 88th, while the average ranking of NC State’s opponents in their 2 Quad 2 losses is 68.5.
Four of Wake Forest’s Quad 2 wins were at home. Three of NC State’s Quad 2 wins were at home.
There’s no denying that NC State’s non-conference strength of schedule is hurting them, but Wake Forest’s isn’t that much better: 324th vs. 256th.
In summary, neither Wake Forest or NC State has a bad loss (Quad 3 or 4), but Wake Forest has one more Quad 2 win.
Also, according to the NCAA, the Team Value Index is supposed to reward teams for winning on the road. NC State is 3-3 on the road, and Wake Forest is 1-5. Two of those road wins are Quad 3 games for the Wolfpack (Notre Dame and Louisville), with Boston College being a Quad 2 win, but nonetheless…3 road wins.
While I don’t know the exact formula being used for Team Value Index score (no one does), I don’t see Wake having a significant edge here. In fact, I’d say they are close to even.
Where Wake Forest does have an edge is in NET Efficiency. Wake Forest ranks 32nd in Offensive Efficiency Rating and NC State ranks 132nd. The Deacs rank 70th in Defensive Efficiency and the Wolfpack ranks 72nd.
While I am a stat junkie, I’m not sure I think a teams efficiency rating should impact their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament. As NC State’s record has shown, you can put W’s in the win column while not playing “efficient.”
So in a nutshell, as best I understand it, when it comes to wins and losses, quality of wins, where the wins took place, bad losses, and where the losses took place, NC State is neck and neck with Wake Forest. Ultimately, your ranking should primarily be based off of wins and losses, in my opinion.
Unfortunately, due to how efficiency rankings factor into the NET Rankings, Wake Forest ranks 36 spots higher than NC State.
Silly.
According to reports, NC State is adding UMASS’ Brett Nelson as an Assistant Coach.
Sources: Brett Nelson is leaving UMass to join Kevin Keatts’ staff at NC State as an assistant.
Matt Figger — who worked for Frank Martin at both South Carolina and Kansas State — will replace Nelson in Amherst.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) May 15, 2024
Nelson was only at UMASS for 1 season under Frank Martin. Prior to that, Nelson was the Head Coach at Holy Cross for 4 seasons, posting a 27-84 record.
Prior to taking the Head Coaching mantle at Holy Cross, Nelson was at Marquette for 5 seasons, spending the first 3 as an Assistant Coach, and the final two as an Associate Head Coach. Prior to Marquette, Nelson also served as an Assistant Coach at Ball St., Drake, Arkansas and Marshall.
Before coaching basketball, Nelson played for the University of Florida from 1999-2003. He was All-SEC twice, and earned Third Team All-American honors. When he left Gainesville, he was the Gators’ all-time leader in three pointers made, and ranked 2nd in steals.
As a Senior in High School, Nelson was a McDonald’s All-American.
Power Forward Ernest Ross announced this morning that he is returning to NC State for his final year of eligibility.
View this post on Instagram
Last Friday, Ross committed to UTSA after entering the Transfer Portal on April 17th, but it looks like he had a change of heart over the past couple of days.
NC State has been in desperate need to add a Big out of the Portal. They have hosted ECU’s Ezra Ausar and Georgia’s Frank Anselem-Ibe, but neither of them have found a home yet. With the addition of Ross, NC State has added depth in the Frontcourt, and unless something changes, their roster is full with 13 scholarship players.
Ross played in 14 games this past season, averaging 3.4 minutes per contest. After playing in 34 games last season, averaging 11.4 minutes per contest, Ross saw his participation dip to a career low this season, but that didn’t for a second break his infectious personality. On the sideline, you could count on Ross every single game to be the heart and soul of the Wolfpack on the bench. To watch a player who played as little as he did, care as much as he did, makes me super proud that this young man represented NC State so well.
Ross was a consensus 4-star player in NC State’s 2021 recruiting class, with 247Sports ranking him as the #60 overall player nationally. ESPN ranked him as the #5 overall player in the state of Florida.
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And the latest reason is that we suck when we play tournament caliber teams.
It is probably payback for making the tournament last year when clearly Clemson was a much better team than State. It could be also be that most of our losses have been near or more than double digit losses whereas Wake only has one double digit loss at UNC.
The formula is the formula and I can’t say why State isn’t ranked higher but I’m fairly sure it has nothing do with any hate directed towards our program. However, if you want to get into the tournament selection committee and how they treat us, that’s another matter. Back in 2019, we didn’t make the tournament despite a NET of 33, which was criminal. All of the people moaning about how few NCAA tourney appearances we have under Keatts need to realize that we would have gotten a birth in 2020 if Covid didn’t hit and we deserved one the… Read more »
Gonzaga is another head scratcherfor me. Lost to St. Mary’s at home and fell from 26 to 27. They’re 15-6, so one more overall win than NCSU, but also zero quad 1 wins.
If you look at Lunardi’s brackets, there is no Gonzaga listed. Even St. Marys with a 2 game lead over Gonzaga is only an eighth seed.
In the first year of the NET, NC State was beating cupcakes by 30 points and was rewarded with something like a #34 ranking. So the NET formula was adjusted the next year to cap the scoring margin factor at 10 points. But I think offensive efficiency still factors in scoring margin so it’s being counted twice, right? This weekend, Virginia beat #33 Clemson by 1 point on the road and went from #44 to #42 while Wake Forest beat #76 Syracuse by 29 points at home and went from #50 to #41. It’s weird that a higher ranked Q1… Read more »
Going up or down is also based on what other teams are doing during the week. So if teams below you have great wins then they may move above you or advance more quickly.