More than Rivalry on the Line for Pack, Heels Today at 1pm

NC State Wolfpack vs. UNC Tar Heels
1PM | Chapel Hill, NC | ESPN2

The Wolfpack heads across town to face-off with their hated rivals today at 1pm. But today’s game is a little different. Over the past 20 years, very rarely has NC State has been looking down at Carolina in the standings. State will enter today’s game at 4-4 in the conference, with UNC a game behind at 3-4. Let’s take a look at our game notes:

Might Carolina be figuring it out?
NC State is on the rise after 3 straight ‘grind it out’ wins, but so is Carolina. The Heels have won 3 of their last 4 after losing their first 3 in league play. They beat BC, lost by 15 to UVA, crushed Clemson by 19 and then took out GT by 13. Now, it’s not surprising anyone that UNC beat BC or GT, but taking out Clemson by 19 is pretty impressive. The Tigers are currently sitting at 4-3 in the conference and already have a win against Duke. But does this really mean UNC has turned a corner or something? It’s hard to say, but it does show you that when they ‘re on they can be somewhat dangerous. On the other hand, I still think they are what they are, and that’s a team that State can beat handily if they play their game and stay focused.

McAdoo matchup will likely decide the game…
Probably the biggest challenge NC State faces in this game is James Michael McAdoo. He’s coming off two huge games where he’s scored 22 and 17 respectively. He’s starting to get more physical and he’s becoming effective both in the post and facing up. State will have to make a choice on him. I think Vandy is simply too slow to guard him and will be relegated to guarding Meeks on the block. That leaves a freshmen Kyle Washington or Lennard Freeman to try to stop him. I think Freeman would be more effective. He only give up and inch and is 15 pounds heavier than McAdoo. Freeman has done a good job on guys that like to face up, and is athletic enough to stop him off the face-up. Washington will also get his chance. He’s the same height as JMM but gives up 5 pounds. Either way these two guys will be very important to the outcome of this game.

Dez Lee will (or at least should ) guard Marcus Paige…
Marcus Paige can really be credited for keeping UNC in contention at all this season. The kid has become a true scoring threat this season. He’s averaging 17 PPG and is scoring from all over the court. He’s their motor and they only go as far as he’s going to take them, which is why I think putting Dez Lee on him makes the most sense. Lee has been a defensive monster so far this season. His shut down defense was directly responsible for a number of wins this season and I think it’s going to be huge in this one. Paige is quick and can score in a variety of ways, but he’s not all that strong. Lee on the other hand is strong and can get physical with Paige, throwing him off his game (or at least frustrating him). If State can slow down Paige and McAdoo, they’ll blow UNC out of the water. If not, then the Heels could walk away with the win. One other thing to think about it how this might effect Gottfried’s lineup. Going with Lee on Paige, means Barber or Lewis on Leslie McDonald. Barber would be able to handle that, but I’m not sure Lewis would have much success against him. If Lewis continues to have the hot hand, then State might need to go zone and really cheat towards whatever side Paige drifts to.

No answer for TJ Warren
Carolina is likely going to guard Warren with JP Tokoto, and while Tokoto is a decent defender, he’s not the type that can shut down Warren. Tokoto gives up 3 inches and 15 pounds to Warren, who will have a huge advantage inside. That’s really the only guy they can trust to try to stop TJ. If Tokoto were to get in foul trouble (which is an issue Warren should certainly press) then UNC would simply have to go zone, because at that point they would have no one capable of even slowing down TJ.

Lewis and Barber need to be ready….
Roy Williams is at least going to try to play this game man to man. If he realizes Warren is too much of a matchup problem for his team,  he’ll go zone. This will likely dictate who sees more time in this game. Right now Lewis has the hot hand. He’s playing smarter and controlling most aspects of the game, but Barber plays much better defense and is more of a threat when State gets going in transition. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lewis start this game, but even if he doesn’t, I don’t think it will be long before we see him off the bench. I do think Barber will be vital if Marcus Paige gets going. I’d like to see Lee on Paige, making it hard for him to get comfortable. If Dez is there, then that means Barber would move over onto McDonald, who he can easily matchup with. The same doesn’t go with Lewis who likely wouldn’t have success against he taller, stronger McDonald. I just think it’s a mistake to put Lewis on Paige right now. Paige is scoring a great clip and would salivate at the chance to attack Lewis.

First time at Carolina for most…
This will be the first time playing UNC for most of these Wolfpack players. Barber, Washington, Freeman, Anya, Lee and Turner have never faced UNC. How will they react? Will they come out too hyped, or will they come out focused? They do need to be warned about the whistles, though. Don’t hang your head if calls start getting a little questionable…it’s UNC, it’s going to happen.

Anya a gametime decision…
I think Anya is going to suit up, but I’m not doctor. Gottfried said he’s not sure about his status and that it will be known around game time.

A win goes a long way…
For UNC a win would mean moving back into contention at 4-4, but a win for State would be even bigger. If they knock off Carolina today, all of the sudden State moves into sole possession of 5th place and is in the conversation for a NCAA tournament bid. A lot is on the line in this one. Add in the fact that these two teams hate each other, and you’re going to have yourself a really fun game to watch.