How will NC State match up against Arizona’s massive frontcourt?

Yesterday, we highlighted Arizona’s elite scoring guard, Allonzo Trier. Today, we’ll be focusing on an area that may be even more important to the Wildcats success. Their frontcourt.

Not many teams can roll out two 7-footers and back them up with a talented 6’7 big.  Arizona can.

They will start with Dusan Ristic, a 7-foot senior who is averaging 13 points, 7 boards and a block per game. At his side will be the new-comer, Deandre Ayton. A freshman big whose versatility is truly unique. He is averaging 19 points, 12 boards, 2 assists and nearly 2 blocks per game. Backing them up is 6’7 freshman Ira Lee.

How will NC State match-up?
Matching up with Dusan Ristic isn’t going to be too tricky. Omer Yurtseven will finally get to play someone his size and someone who will play a style that he is much more used to guarding. State will not be giving any height up here, and Ristic isn’t exactly the most physical of bigs. Actually, he and Yurtseven are a great comp. He is a senior, so he’s been through the gauntlet, but Yurtseven might be a little more skilled away from the hoop. Either way, I don’t think NC State’s going to game plan around figuring out a way to stop Ristic.

Dandre Ayton is a different story. Watching the tape on this kid, it’s easy to see why pro scoutslove him. He’s 7’1 and is skilled both away from the basket and with his back to it He is athletic for his size, but also very strong for a freshman. To be honest, NC State doesn’t have anyone that can match up with him man for man. The closest they’ll come is if Abu comes back from his injury, but even then, even if Abu is close to 100%, Ayton still has 4 inches on him.

Watching the video below, you can see how he’d be a problem, but what you also see a huge kid picking on some smaller guys. How will he do against a physical presence like Freeman or Abu? He doesn’t seem to love contact. He also likes to bring the ball down, which is always blood in the water for scrappy guards. We can see Ayton being a huge matchup problem for NC State, but with it being only his 4th college game and his first against a strong, mature frontcourt, it may end up being more interesting that Arizona would hope.

Ira Lee is is another freshman forward. He measures in at 6’7 and comes off the bench for the Wildcats. He’s versatile, but still finding his way. He’s only playing about 16 minutes per game, but when he’s in there he’s been decently productive (6pts, 4 boards, 67% from the field, but very foul prone).

Playing to their weakness
Man to man, Arizona is going to simply much bigger than NC State. If this game slows down and Arizona is able to get into sets, they are going to try to pound it down NC State’s throat. They’ll win the rebounding battle and they’ll make it tough for the Pack to score inside.

The only way NC State wins this game is to speed the Wildcats up and neutralize their frontcourt. Both Ristic and Ayton seem to thrive in sets, where they can get deep in the paint and use their height to their advantage. Ristic isn’t really going to hurt you on the break if you beat him down the floor. Ayton, however, is a different story.

You can see that at some point Ayton going to be a monster in transition. At this point, he’s a little loose with the ball and can fall in love with the jumper. He’s only 3 games into his college career, so it wasn’t long ago that he was allowed a lot more leash handing the ball in the open court. At this level, he’s not quite there yet, especially with a defense that swarms like NC State’s does. The Pack needs to invite him to beat them on the perimeter and speed him up a little bit to take him out of his rhythm.

Can the Pack score on that type of size?
As we noted above, probably not if they go head to head. This type of size is going to really bother NC State if they’re forced to set up and in the half court. Ristic and Ayton can clog the middle and dare the Wolfpack to shoot it. If they’re not hitting their jumpers (and they haven’t been much this season), then you have to hope Dorn, Freeman, and Yurtseven can get it going. This type of size is going to bother both Dorn and Freeman. Yurtseven, however, may have a more favorable matchup. He can step out and pull Ristic out of his comfort zone, however if that’s the only mismatch you’re trying to exploit, it’s going to be a long night.

The honest truth is, none of that sounds like a winning plan for the Wolfpack. If they want to compete in the middle they’ll need Abu to play. His muscle in the paint and ability to pull a guy like Ayton off the block will be vital. Ayton isn’t exactly fluid moving laterally, so a few 15 footers from Abu could have him closing out a little more than he’d like, giving Abu the ability to attack the hoop and see if he can draw a few fouls.

Even with Abu, we’re looking at an uphill climb if NC State is going to get into a frontcourt showdown with Arizona. The key to this game is going to be speed and turnovers. NC State needs transition buckets. They need to make it very uncomfortable for the Wildcats bigs and get the game at a pace so fast that Arizona is not able to play to their strengths.

________

We will take a closer look at how NC State can come away with the win in our  ‘Keys to the Game’ preview.