NC State vs #2 Arizona: By the (advanced) Numbers

NC State takes on #2 Arizona tonight at 7pm. A quick look at the surface numbers says that it should be a lopsided win for the Wildcats. But, look a little deeper at the advanced stats and you’ll see that NC State may have an opportunity to exploit a weakness in Arizona’s game. Take a look for yourself.  (*TLDR: Skip to the bottom for  summary)

Points Per Game
NC State- 90
Arizona- 98

Rebounds Per Game
NC State- 36
Arizona- 40

Assists Per Game
NC State- 16
Arizona- 20

Steals Per Game
NC State- 12
Arizona- 7

Blocks Per Game
NC State- 4
Arizona- 5

FG %
NC State- 49.4
Arizona- 58.8

3-point %
NC State- 26.4
Arizona- 50.9

Free Throw %
NC State- 71.4
Arizona- 58.8

FG %
NC State- 49.4
Arizona- 80.5

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Advanced Stats

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Adjusted Tempo
An estimate of the tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) a team would have against the team that wants to play at an average D-I tempo.
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Arizona- 71.0 (218th)
NC State- 74.0 (49th)

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
An estimate of the offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I defense.
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Arizona- 119.2 (2nd)
NC State- 107 (83rd)

Committed Turnover %
Arizona- 16.9 (81st)
NC State- 12.9 (11th)

Forced Turnover %
Arizona- 17.9 (236th)
NC State- 31.1 (1st)

Offensive rebounding %
Arizona- 38.9 (24th)
NC State- 35.8 (52nd)

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Summary
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When you look at the numbers, at this point in the season, Arizona is better than NC State in mostly every phase of the game. However, the data does points to one area that the Wolfpack has a real advantage.

The tempo stat above shows you that NC State likes to play fast. They are also the nation’s leader in creating turnovers (percentage wise). At the same time, the Wolfpack isn’t committing many turnovers at all. This is saying that NC State plays extremely fast, but they also are able to do so under control. Meanwhile,  opponents are seeming to be bothered by the pace of play.

Arizona ranks pretty low in temp, meaning all of those great stats above are coming from a slower, more methodical pace of play. What happens when you speed them up? What happens to their TO%? What happens to their FG%. They are a great rebounding team, but what happens when the game is being played in transition and rebounders are out of position?

This could get interesting if NC State is able to control the pace and keep the tempo up. All of the sudden, you are forcing Arizona into unchartered waters. How will they respond?

The answer to that question, may tell you who walks away with the win.