Putting NC State’s 8-2 start into perspective

Now that we’re about a third of the way through season 1 of the Kevin Keatts era, we felt like it was a good time to step back and see where this team really is.

When the Wolfpack knocked off Arizona, they were the #2 team in the nation. Immediately after that victory, there was a lot of celebration, but also a lot of questions.

Is NC State really this good? Is Kevin Keatts some kind of sorcerer who in only a few months turned a group, picked to finish near the bottom of the ACC, into a national contender?

Two consecutive losses, one to Tennessee and one to Northern Iowa, pumped the breaks on those thoughts pretty fast.

After the ‘Battle 4 Atlantis’ Wolfpack fans needed to process what just happened. Is this team going to be one of those State teams who beats some great teams, but loses to some awful teams? Did they just catch Arizona on an off night? Or is this just a really good team who is still learning to master this system?

A win over a very good Penn State team, in a grind it out sort of fashion, really amplified these questions and gave people a little more hope that ‘maybe this team is a little better than we thought after all.’

They have since won 2 games against weaker teams and have 3 more before ACC play. So where does this team stand? Maybe taking a look at where some of their opponents are now will give us a better idea.

The Quality Wins:

#2 Arizona Wildcats: The win over Arizona went from outstanding, to just good in a matter of a few days. The Wildcats were #2 when NC State beat them, but after that loss they went on to drop 2 more, leaving the Bahamas 0-3.

So what have they been up to since? Well, they’re back on track. They beat a good UNLV team, then knocked off #7 Texas A&M (#1 in RPI), and just last night they beat a quality Alabama team. Arizona, may not be the #2 team in the nation, but they will likely be a Top 15-20 team by season’s end and this will be a big-time non-conference win for the Wolfpack.

Penn State: The win over the Nittany Lions was nice on paper, but if you’ve watched Wolfpack basketball for a long time, you’ll know that this type of game is one that usually ends up in the ‘L’ column. It’s against a quality opponent that isn’t ranked but is playing well, State coming off two losses, they are physical and active, they play tough defense. Just to be blunt about it, NC State under Mark Gottfried (most likely) loses that game.

So what has Penn State done since their loss to the Pack? Well, hard to tell. They beat a so-so Iowa team and they lost at the buzzer to a Wisconsin team that has been up and down. Our guess is that Penn State finishes out the season in the RPI top 100, making this a good but not great victory.

The Losses:

UNI (Northern Iowa): Just because you’ve never really heard of UNI doesn’t mean that this was a bad loss. In fact, UNI is #19 in the RPI right now. NC State only lost by 4 to the Panthers and had they been fresh, we believe the Wolfpack would have pulled this one off.

So what has UNI been up to since their win over the Pack? Well, they lost to #5 Villanova, beat that good UNLV team and won a cupcake vs. UT Arlington. That means that UNI sits at 7-2 with their only losses to #9 UNC and #5 Villanova. This is a very good, very well-coached senior-led team and you’ll likely find them in or near the Top 25 by seasons end.

Tennessee: NC State fans usually would place themselves in a tier with Tennessee in most years, and would likely expect to beat them at home or on a neutral court. That’s why they weren’t really happy when the Pack went ice cold and ended up losing to the Vols by 9. But this Tennessee team isn’t really your typical group. This is a big, strong athletic group that has some leadership and currently sit 6-1 with their only loss coming to #5 Villanova.

So what have the Vols been up to since they beat State? Sure, they had two cupcake wins, but they also sprinkled in a 7 point victory over Georgia Tech in Atlanta. As of the writing of this article, Tennessee is actually sitting at #24 in the AP poll and is #7 in the RPI.

Where does that leave NC State?

Taking a closer look, you see that the Wolfpack really hasn’t lost a bad game. They are 8-2 with wins over #2 Arizona and Penn State. Their losses have been to two Top-20 RPI teams., both on a neutral court and both were 1-day turnaround games.

Look at it this way. This is a group that is still learning to play together, they are still conditioning their bodies to play at this pace, and they are still learning this system. Their only two losses were in a tournament situation (back to back games) that they’d only see again in the ACC Tournament.

Could the Pack be 10-0 right now? Sure. if they had proper rest for those two losses, maybe they have their legs and didn’t shoot so poorly. Maybe they grind out those wins, and maybe they don’t. Either way, both of their losses were close games and they’ve yet to find themselves an opponent they can’t compete with. If they can take care of the next 3 games, get rested, get healthy, then Wolfpack fans should be very happy with where their team is and where they could end up going.