NC State vs UNCG : By the (advanced) Numbers

NC State takes on UNCG today at 12 noon (on FSS or Watch ESPN app). This isn’t some cupcake game that the Pack can just sleepwalk through. This is a very talented and well-coached squad. In fact, these two teams are actually pretty similar on the surface, so it takes a little deeper digging to figure out where their differences really are.

We took a look at the 4-Factors statistics (which are based on Dean Oliver’s study of “What wins in basketball”) and found some interesting areas of focus that may end up being the deciding factors on today’s game.  Take a look.

Effective FG% Offense
UNCG- 50.2
NC State- 52.7

The takeaway: NC State shoots a very impressive 47.6% from the field this season and UNCG shoots a respectable 44%, but adjusted for 2s and 3s, (effective FG%) these two teams inch a little closer. UNCG has shot nearly 40 more 3s than the Wolfpack and is converting them better (36% to NC State’s 32%). NC State inches out UNCG here, but not by much.

Effective FG% Allowed
UNCG- 46.8 (57th in nation)
NC State- 47.7 (77th in nation)

The takeaway: UNCG beats NC State by less than 1% in opponents eFG%. That means both of these teams make it pretty tough on their opposition to score. Neither team really has a clear advantage here.

Turnover % on offense
UNCG- 19.9
NC State- 17.5 (87th in nation)

The takeaway: NC State is turning the ball over less than UNCG, but again, not by a whole lot. Every possession matters though, so 2% of all possessions end up being more than it looks like. Both of these teams are going to keep the pressure up and keep the pace quick, so whoever takes care of the basketball better will have a clear advantage.

Turnover % Forced
UNCG- 23.9 (21st in nation)
NC State- 23.7 (26th in nation)

The takeaway: Look at how close this is. Both of these teams are forcing a lot of turnovers. As much hype as NC State has gotten for their pressure defense and their ability to make their opponents cough it up, UNCG actually is doing a better job statistically. However . 02% is a super thin margin. You can basically call this one a tie.

Offensive rebounding % Offense
UNCG- 31
NC State- 37.4 (13th in nation)

The takeaway: NC State has a clear advantage here. They are a much better offensive rebounding team than UNCG and rank 13th in the nation. Yurtseven, Freeman, and Dorn are the reason the Pack is so good in this category, however, the next stat may balance out this advantage.

Offensive rebounding % Allowed
UNCG- 23.4 (25th in nation)
NC State- 32.5 

The takeaway: Huge UNCG advantage here UNCG is 25th in the nation for lowest offensive rebounding % for their opponents. What this means is that they do a good job of not allowing other teams to get 2nd chance points. This stat right here is likely the reason the Spartans have been so good this year. But something has to give. As we just pointed out, NC State is 13th in the nation getting offensive boards, while UNCG is 25th in the nation at NOT allowing teams to get offensive boards. Whoever wins this battle may very well win the game.

FT Rate Offense 
UNCG- 27
NC State- 41 (53rd in nation)

The takeaway: NC State has a clear advantage here and rightfully so. UNCG shoots a lot more 3s than the Wolfpack, meaning they aren’t attacking the rim and getting to the line. NC State is 53rd in getting to the line. If the game is close,  late, then the ability for the Pack to get it inside or attack the basket could pay dividends.

FT Rate Allowed
UNCG- 44
NC State- 37.8

The takeaway: Both of these teams play very tough, physical defense and both will pick you up past half court, but NC State does a better job of keeping their fouls down and keeping teams off the line. Actually, NC State’s 37.8% in FT Rate allowed is pretty bad, but UNCG’s is darn near worst in the NCAA. This stat, coupled with the the last stat, should equal UNCG fouling even MORE than usual based on the fact taht NC State gets to the line so well on average.