NC State vs Clemson: By the (advanced) Numbers

NC State takes on Clemson today at 4pm (on RSN). This is certainly going to be a tough matchup for the Pack because this isn’t your normal Clemson team. This is a group that is ranked 27th in the AP Poll and 26th in the coaches poll. They are 25th in the RPI and 22nd in the Power Index. They are 11-1, have beaten #22 Florida by 2, Ohio State by 14 and South Carolina by 16. Not to mention, this game is on their home court.

We took a look at the 4-Factors statistics (which are based on Dean Oliver’s study of “What wins in basketball”) and found some interesting areas of focus that may end up being the deciding factors on today’s game.  Take a look.

Effective FG% Offense
Clemson- 57.3 (21st in the nation)
NC State- 54

The takeaway: NC State shoots a very impressive 48.3% from the field this season but Clemson bests them by shooting over 50%. When adjusted to add in 3 pointers, Clemson’s eFG% shoots up to 57.3%, while the Pack comes in at 54%. Not a huge difference here, but enough that it could be a factor. Clemson shoots the 3 at about 37%, while NC State only shoots it at 34% (however they are coming off a game where they shot 50% from long range and set a school record for 19 3s made). If NC State shoots it well from outside, then you can throw this stat out the window since it’s taking into account a long stretch where the Pack couldn’t buy a 3.

Effective FG% Allowed
Clemson- 45.9 (36th in nation)
NC State- 48.2 

The takeaway: Clemson has a better defense than NC State, on paper anyways. They are making it really hard for opponents to score. They are allowing an eFG% (which gives extra value to 3 pointers) of 45.9% which is 36th in the nation. NC State is allowing 48.2% which is 90th overall. Not awful, but Clemson is doing a better job of making teams play in the halfcourt, and REALLY slowing the game down (they are 302nd in the nation in adjusted tempo). Their halfcourt defense is physical and disciplined, which is why they are posting such a good number.

Turnover % on offense
Clemson- 18.5
NC State- 16.8 (52nd in nation)

The takeaway: This is where the Pack has the edge. They turn the ball over less. Clemson isn’t going to be pressing them or trapping them much, so unless NC State is just sloppy in the halfcourt, they should actually improve this number. Clemson, on the other hand, has been giving it away a little more, and with the Pack’s full-court pressure, they might see this number jump.

Turnover % Forced
Clemson- 19.4 
NC State- 23.1 (26th in nation)

The takeaway: State is one of the best teams in the nation at turning you over. Their full-court pressure is creating turnovers at a really good rate. Couple that with the fact that Clemson does have a tendency to get loose with the ball, and you can see where the Pack would have an advantage.

Offensive rebounding % Offense
Clemson- 27.5
NC State- 37.7 (8th in nation)

The takeaway: NC State has a clear advantage here. They are the 8th best team in the nation when it comes to ORB%. With Yurtseven leading the way on the offensive glass and Lennard Freeman not too far behind, the NC State front line does a great job of creating extra possessions and getting 2nd chance points. On the other side, Clemson’s bigs haven’t been all that great on the offensive glass. In fact, this is probably the worst aspect of their game. Their 27.5 ORB% is 217th in the nation, which isn’t good.

Offensive rebounding % Allowed
Clemson- 24.1 (21st in nation)
NC State- 32.5 

The takeaway: What makes this interesting is the fact that while Clemson doesn’t get many offensive boads, they also don’t allow that many. They are 21st in the nation in allowing the lowest ORB%. This is a battle to watch. Clemson has done a great job of not allowing offensive boards, while the Wolfpack is one of the nation’s best in that category. If the Pack wasn’t to leave Clemson with a W, they need to win this battle on the offensive glass.

FT Rate Offense 
Clemson- 38.3
NC State- 42.8 (25th in nation)

The takeaway: NC State gets to the line at a good rate. This is thanks to Al Freeman’s ability to draw contact on his drives and their bigs dominance early in the season. If they can get to the line and convert against the Tigers, they can win this game. Meanwhile, Clemson hasn’t done a great job of getting to the line. They do have good shooters though, but NC State has done a pretty good job this season of forcing teams into tough shots. We’ll have to see how this plays out, but it seems as though if you play up on Clemson and close out on their shooters well, then they’d have a tough time scoring by attacking the hoop.

FT Rate Allowed
Clemson- 24.3 (20th in nation)
NC State- 34.6

The takeaway: Here is another stat that shows just how good Clemson is on defense. They don’t’ foul much. They are 20th in the nation in allowing the lowest FT Rate. The numbers basically are saying that Clemson plays strong, smart defense. They make it tough to score, but they aren’t overly aggressive to the point that they are foulding you and putting you on the line.