NC State vs Notre Dame: By the (advanced) Numbers

NC State takes on Notre Dame tonight at 9pm (WRAL and streaming on WatchESPN).

The Fighting Irish come into this game at 11-3 on the season and 1-0 in the ACC. They have impressive wins over #6 Witchita State, LSU and Georgia Tech. They are ranked 28th in the AP Poll and 28th in the USA Today Coaches Poll. They are also #21 in the College Basketball Power Index.

However, NC State is in a prime position right now. Just last night, news broke that All-American big man and ND’s leading scorer, Bonzie Colson (21 points, 10 rebounds) is out with a broken foot. This gives the Pack first dibs on an under-manned Irish squad.

We took a look at the 4-Factors statistics (which are based on Dean Oliver’s study of “What wins in basketball”) and found some interesting areas of focus that may end up being the deciding factors on today’s game.  Take a look. (explanation of these statistics at the bottom of page)

Effective FG% Offense
Notre Dame- 55.6 (16 in nation)
NC State- 52.9

The takeaway: Notre Dame has the advantage here, but the numbers for the Irish may not be reliable at this point. That’s because Bonzie Colson is out. He is their go-to guy and is shooting 53% from the floor. It’s tough to say how the Fighting Irish will compensate. It’s likely you’ll see more from their guards, however, they really rely a lot on Colson. Without him, NC State matches up pretty well with them. They really don’t have any lighting-quick guards, which have caused a problem for the Pack with Markell Johnson out. You can expect ND to be a bit out of sorts offensively, and shooting more 3s than usual (they do shoot 40% from beyond the arc).

Effective FG% Allowed
Notre Dame- 47 (62 in nation)
NC State- 48.2 (89 in nation)

The takeaway: Both teams make it relatively hard for their opponents to score. However, since Markell Johnson has been out, NC State has seen a decline in their eFG% allowed, mostly because they are allowing guards to get into the lane and make plays. Notre Dame doesn’t really have a guard with elite quickness, but senior Matt Ferrell is strong and crafty when it comes to making things happen.The Pack needs to make sure they defend the 3 tonight if they want to win. Without Colson, ND isn’t going to have that dominant force in the middle, so it will be up to their guards to make up for his absence. The Irish has done a pretty good job of making it tough on teams to get good shots. They haven’t been great at defending the 3, but then again, NC State struggles to shoot it from out there. They have been great at making it hard to score in the paint, but what happens when their strongest post guy isn’t out there? For the Pack, they need to stop ball watching. It was a huge problem against Clemson that led to easy buckets. The Irish love to run backdoor cuts, and are very good in high screen pick and roll set. State needs to make sure they are seeing man and ball at all times.

Turnover % on offense
Notre Dame- 13.4 (2 in  nation)
NC State- 17 (52 in nation)

The takeaway: Notre Dame is one of the best teams in the nation at taking care of the basketball. PG Matt Ferrell is their playmaker and PG. He’s got about a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio, which is ok, but he also handles the ball a ton for this team. NC State is going to try to speed him up and get the ball out of his hands with traps and full-court pressure. It will be interesting to see how they do against that with Colson out. He’s been a pretty good safety valve for them when teams press.

Turnover % Forced
Notre Dame- 18.4
NC State- 22.3 (34 in nation)

The takeaway: This is kind of tricky. NC State looks like they are one of the nation’s best in TO% forced, but lately they’ve struggled. With Markell Johnson out they haven’t really been able to speed teams up. This has decreased their ability to create turnovers and get out in transition. I think, at this point, this is probably more even than it looks. ND, like most slower paced teams, is more about sitting back and defending in the half court, and less about trying to turn you over. That works for them because they have done a pretty good job on the defensive boards this season. But again, take away their best defensive rebounder (Colson) and they may be in some trouble.

Offensive rebounding % Offense
Notre Dame- 28
NC State- 37.1 (13 in nation)

The takeaway: NC State has a clear advantage here. They are one of the best teams at getting offensive boards in the country. Yurtseven, Dorn, and Freeman all rank in the ACC’s top 20 in this category. Only big man Martinas Geben ranks highly for the Irish and he’s still below Dorn and Yurt in that category. If the Wolfpack win, this is an area you’ll see them flourish.

Offensive rebounding % Allowed
Notre Dame- 29.3
NC State- 31.7

The takeaway: Neither team is elite at controlling the defensive boards, but the Irish are better. However, this would seem to favor the Pack big time since they are so much better on the offensive glass and would seem in a much better position to take advantage of the Irish’s ‘decent at best’ work on the defensive boards. Add in the fact that their best rebounder (by far) is out for the game, and the Pack have a monster advantage on both sides of the glass.

FT Rate Offense 
Notre Dame- 35.2
NC State- 41.3 (36 in nation)

The takeaway: NC State gets to the line at a good rate, but really could be even better if they didn’t settle for so many 3s. Notre Dame on the other hand, hasn’t done a great job of getting to the line. Over a quarter of their team FTs have come from Colson, who again, is out for this game.

FT Rate Allowed
Notre Dame- 22.5 (5th in nation)
NC State- 33.6

The takeaway: The Irish have done a good job of keeping teams off the line. This is a testament to their discipline and high defensive IQ as a team. They play smart, strong, position defense and are good at contesting shots without fouling. NC State isn’t awful here, but they definitely put teams on the line a little more than they’d like. Part of this, however, is based on pace and style of play. NC State wants to turn you over, so they are taking more risks and playing a little more aggressively on the defensive end.

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Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.

Turnover percentage is a pace-independent measure of ball security.

Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.

Free throw rate captures a team’s ability to get to the free throw line.