NC State vs. #2 Duke: By the (advanced) Numbers

NC State takes on Duke at home tonight at 8 pm on ESPN. The Blue Devils come into this game ranked #2 at 13-1 on the season. Their only loss came against BC at their place. Their quality wins are over then #2 Michigan State, #7 Florida, and #24 FSU.

We took a look at the 4-Factors statistics (which are based on Dean Oliver’s study of “What wins in basketball”) and found some interesting areas of focus that may end up being the deciding factors on today’s game.  Take a look. (explanation of these statistics at the bottom of page)

Effective FG% Offense
Duke- 57.3 (20 in nation)
NC State- 52.1

The takeaway: As usual, Duke can shoot. Their eFG% is 20th in the nation thanks to guys like Marvin Bagley and Wendell Carter shooting over 60% from the floor. Grayson Allen is also checking in at 47.6% from the field, which is pretty elite for a guy who takes as many contested shots as he does. Meanwhile, NC State is trending downwards and fast. Their guards continue to be ice cold from long range and now their bigs aren’t looking quite as dominant as they did a few weeks ago. In ACC play so far, Abu is 3-9 (33%), Yurtseven is 8-20 (40%), and Freeman is 7-12 (58%).  As you can see, this is a big problem right out of the gate.

Effective FG% Allowed
Duke- 48.1 (84 in nation)
NC State- 49.1 (110 in nation)

The takeaway: These numbers are pretty close, but Duke barely edges out the Pack in eFG% defense. Honestly, the defense hasn’t been that great for either team and perimeter defense is certainly Duke’s weakest link. That said, Duke does have more athletes than State and actually has shown some zone. With the Pack’s 3pt shooting problem, Duke may opt to go that route.

Turnover % on offense
Duke- 15.4 (19 in  nation)
NC State- 17.3 (71 in nation)

The takeaway: Duke does a good job, as usual, at taking care of the basketball and State is just decent. However, State could be really good if Al Freeman and Torin Dorn would stop giving it away. Combined those two have turned it over 75 times. The entire rest of the team (not including Markell Johnson). If you’re looking for an area that killing the Wolfpack, this is one. Both Freeman and Dorn have negative assist-to-turnover ratios. At least Dorn is providing some rebounding and 55% shooting from the floor to attempt to balance that out. Freeman is turning it over like crazy, shooting 33%, and taking by far the most shots on this team.

Turnover % Forced
Duke- 16.6
NC State- 22 (39 in nation)

The takeaway: Sinc Markell Johnson went out, NC State hasn’t quite turned people over like Keatts would like. They are still doing a decent job, but teams are breaking the press easier and moving it around the perimeter with ease when before they were struggling to get it over half court, and getting anywhere on the court was a task for the guards. Duke isn’t really that good at creating turnovers either. They have young guards who don’t quite understand how to play pressure defense, and the vets they do have aren’t all that quick.

Offensive rebounding % Offense
Duke- 43 (1 in nation)
NC State- 36.4 (12 in nation)

The takeaway: NC State is a great offensive rebounding team, but Duke is better. This is going to be a problem area for the Pack. NC State gives up a lot of offensive boards as it is, and with Duke being the best in the nation, I think you might see Bagley have a hayday in the paint.

Offensive rebounding % Allowed
Duke- 27.3 
NC State- 31.9

The takeaway: As we stated, NC State gives up a lot of offensive boards, and Duke is the best at grabbing them. However, Duke isn’t really all that great at stopping them either. I’m not sure how it will play out, but Yurtseven, who is one of the better offensive rebounders in the nation, is going to have a tough time getting his numbers with the athleteic Bagley down there.

FT Rate Offense 
Duke- 34.4
NC State- 40.2 (47 in nation)

The takeaway: NC State gets to the line at a good rate, but really could be even better if they didn’t settle for so many 3s. Duke doesn’t, and its because they get a lot of their shots from the perimeter and off second-chance points. Allen is good at getting to the line, but after that, Duke doesn’t have many guards who like to attack and draw contact.

FT Rate Allowed
Duke- 23.3 (14th in nation)
NC State- 34.3 

The takeaway: Duke is great at not allowing teams to get to the line, statistically. However, looking at the rest of their numbers and their roster, I don’t get it. Maybe it’s because Bagley is erasing so many shots, but Duke is young and they aren’t that great defensively. So why don’t teams get to the line against them? Honestly, it probably has more to do with the reffing than it does with the personnel.

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Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.

Turnover percentage is a pace-independent measure of ball security.

Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.

Free throw rate captures a team’s ability to get to the free throw line.