NC State vs. #3 Virginia: By the (advanced) Numbers

NC State takes on Virginia on the road tonight at 6 pm on ESPNU. The Cavaliers come into this game ranked #3 at 15-1 on the season. Their only loss came against (then ranked) #18 West Virginia. However, their only true quality win so far is over (then ranked) #12 UNC.

We took a look at the 4-Factors statistics (which are based on Dean Oliver’s study of “What wins in basketball”) and found some interesting areas of focus that may end up being the deciding factors on today’s game. Take a look. (explanation of these statistics at the bottom of page)

Effective FG% Offense
Virginia- 54.2
NC State- 52.1

The takeaway: Both NC State and Virginia are a little better than average here, but Virginia gets the bump because of their better 3pt %. Both teams shoot about 47% in traditional FG%, but Virginia shoots better from beyond the arc (39% to NC State’s 34%). Virginia has 3 guys shooting it really well from out there in Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome and Devon Hall. All 3 shoot in the 44-45% range from downtown. To put that into perspective, during former NC State marksman Scott Wood’s best season, he shot 44%. NC State’s ability to defend the 3 will be big in this one.

Effective FG% Allowed
Virginia- 42.3 (3rd in nation)
NC State- 49.9

The takeaway: This is where Virginia makes their money. Defense. They are 3rd in the nation in eFG% allowed. They simply make it hard to score. Their pack line defense is focused, physical and disciplined. The Cavs work hard on D and have great communication at all times. They will pressure the ball handler as much as possible, but the other 4 guys will remain sunken in the lane. Virginia wants you to pass it around the perimeter and shoot a 3 off of a side-to-side swung pass. The key for the Pack is to get it down to Yurtseven, he will draw a double team, and allow him to kick it to open shooters. If NC State doesn’t do this and settles for long, side-swung 3s, then they lose this game.

Turnover % on offense
Virginia– 14.4 (6th in nation)
NC State- 16.4 (40th in nation)

The takeaway: This is an area that NC State is pretty good, however, it’s an area that Virginia is better. The Cavs rarely turn the ball over, but a lot of that comes from their pace of play. They literally the slowest team in the NCAA when it comes to admjusted tempo. They like to play slow and methodical.

NC State also isn’t too shabby in this department. What the Pack is doing might even be more impressive, actually. They are not too far behind UVA and they play at a much faster pace. They are going to be doing everything they can to make Virginia speed things up, get out of sync and up that turnover number.

Turnover % forced
Virginia-22.8 (19th in nation)
NC State- 22.1 (32nd in nation)

The takeaway: NC State’s bread and butter is UVA’s as well. Both team’s are great at turning you over. Virginia does it by frusterating you in the half court. They sag their defenders into the lane and make you shoot 3s, but teams that aren’t hitting are forced to jam it inside. This plays right into the Cavaliers’ hands and helps them create turnovers.

For NC State, the name of the game is speed. If they want to create turnovers, they’ll need to speed up the Cavs. That’s not easy to do because you need to make shots to get into your press, and not many teams are making shots against UVA (just look at the eFG% number above). That being said, it’s likely that Markell Johnson returns today and having him alongside Lavar Batts Jr is going to pester any guard, no matter what you’re trying to do. Also note that Virginia’s only loss came to West Virginia, who forced them to play a lot faster then they like.

Offensive rebounding % Offense
Virginia- 27.9
NC State- 36.2 (13th in nation)

The takeaway: NC State wins by a ton here, but how much does this matter? Virginia is a very good team on the boards because they always have 4 defenders sunk in around the basket. This allows them to really block out and seal off the paint for their bigs. Omer Yurtseven’s ability to get going on the offensive glass will be huge, but it won’t be easy.

Offensive rebounding % Allowed
Virginia- 27.5
NC State- 32.5

The takeaway: As we noted above, Virginia doesn’t really allow offensive rebounds, and it’s really just a product of the type of defense they play. Their gang rebounding mentality helps them limits second chance buckets.

IF NC State wants to win, they’ll need to really shock Virginia on the offensive glass.

FT Rate Offense
Virginia- 27
NC State- 39.4 (54th in nation)

The takeaway: NC State gets to the line pretty well. This is mostly because they have a group of guys who like to attack the basket. Al Freeman, Lennard Freeman and Torin Dorn lead NC State at getting to the line.

FT Rate Allowed
Virginia- 25.9 (29th in nation)
NC State- 34.9

The takeaway: Obviously, this is another stat that points to UVA’s solid defense. They play smart, position D and rarely allow their opponent to get clear driving lanes. This means they are forcing teams to take a lot of jump shots, which rarely get you to the line.

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Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.

Turnover percentage is a pace-independent measure of ball security.

Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.

Free throw rate captures a team’s ability to get to the free-throw line.