NC State vs. Wake Forest: By the (advanced) Numbers

NC State takes on Wake Forest tonight at home at 8 pm (streaming on the Watch ESPN app). The Deacs come into this game at 8-9 on the season and 1-4 in the ACC. Their best wins have been over Syracuse and Illinois, however, they have lost 5 of their last 6 games.

We took a look at the 4-Factors statistics (which are based on Dean Oliver’s study of “What wins in basketball”) and found some interesting areas of focus that may end up being the deciding factors on today’s game. Take a look. (explanation of these statistics at the bottom of page)

Effective FG% Offense
Wake- 52.4
NC State- 51.6

The takeaway: These two teams are nearly even when it comes to ‘effective FG%’. Wake is going to rely on the 3 a little more than the Wolfpack, and they should. They shoot it at a 39% clip. This will be an area of focus for NC State. If they can defend the 3 well, then they will beat Wake. If they can’t then we are in for a wild one.

Effective FG% Allowed
Wake- 51.6
NC State- 50.5

The takeaway: NC State does have a tiny advantage here, but honestly we are looking at two teams who are allowing nearly identical ‘effective FG%.’ Neither are all that great at stopping people from getting good looks, so at this point, predicting an advantage for either team is going to have to come from somewhere else.

Turnover % on offense
Wake- 19.1
NC State- 16.8 (52nd in nation)

The takeaway: Ok, so here we finally have a little separation. NC State is turning it over less on offense than Wake. In fact, State is the 52nd ranked team in the nation, while the Deacs slot in at 166. NC State is also going to see their starting PG, Markell Johnson, getting more minutes in this one after playing sparingly in his return from suspension. With 3 PGs capable of handling the ball, the Pack should actually see their number improve against Wake (who also doesn’t really do a great job in forcing TOs)

Turnover % forced
Wake- 19.1
NC State- 22.3 (31st in nation)

The takeaway: Forcing turnovers is NC State’s desired identity and so far they’ve done a pretty good job at it. They are 31st in the nation in Forced TO %. The Pack can really take advantage here. With Markell Johnson (arguably their best defender) back in the fold, State could push this number even higher. Their ability to turn Wake over is going to be big in deciding a winner in this one.

Offensive rebounding % 
Wake- 31.5
NC State- 36.4 (12th in nation)

The takeaway: Another area where NC State is surprisingly VERY good, is offensive rebounding. While it wasn’t something you would have thought entering the season, the combination of size, strength and good old fashion ‘want-to’ has led the Pack to be one of the nation’s leaders on the offensive glass. This is thanks to Omer Yurtseven being the 14th best offensive rebounder in the country and Torin Dorn and Lennard Freeman both helping out a bunch.  Wake, on the other hand, is just about average on the offensive glass. 7’1 junior, Doral Moore is the 32nd best offensive rebounder in the nation, but after that, Wake kind of falls off.

Offensive rebounding % Allowed
Wake- 28.4
NC State- 32.3

The takeaway: Now that we’ve discussed how good these teams are at GETTING offensive boards, we need to look at which teams allows the most. That would be NC State. The Pack is one of the worst teams in the nation at allowing teams to get on the offensive glass. Seems strange, but they rank 290th there. This could help even out the prior stat and take away State’s big advantage in ORB%.

FT Rate Offense
Wake- 34.4
NC State- 37.9

The takeaway: State gets to the line a lot. That’s thanks to a strong frontcourt and the ability and desire of Al Freeman to get to the rim. It’s also out of necessity since the Pack has shot the ball poorly from beyond the arc for a majority of the season. Wake, on the other hand, isn’t all that far behind, but don’t see as much time on the line because they aren’t really committed to playing through their frontcourt. They’re going to shoot a lot of jumpers and a good amount of 3s.

FT Rate Allowed
Wake- 34.5
NC State- 35.1

The takeaway: Defensively, these teams look pretty even. Not much of discrepancy in allowing opponents to get to the line and neither of these numbers are really that great.

Overall
The final tally is NC State 5,  Wake 3. State wins the battle of the 4-factors, but not all that convincingly.

NC State has gotten where they are by turning teams over and winning on the offensive glass. They have that same advantage here vs. Wake. The Deacs are kind of normal across the board. They don’t jump out at you in any one category, although their offense is certainly better than their defense.

With NC State playing at home, the numbers in their favor and the Pack yet to drop a home game after a loss, it looks like that if they come out with intensity and effort, they should have what it takes to defeat the Deacs.

Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.

Turnover percentage is a pace-independent measure of ball security.

Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.

Free throw rate captures a team’s ability to get to the free-throw line.