NC State vs #25 Miami: By the (advanced) numbers

NC State takes on #25 Miami today at home at 12 noon (on the ACC Network – WRAL in Raleigh ). The Hurricanes come into this game at 13-4 on the season and 2-3 in the ACC. Their best wins have been over#12 Minnesota and #24 FSU. They have lost New Mexico State, Georgia Tech, #19 Clemson, and #5 Duke. They ar currently on a 2 game losing streak.

We took a look at the 4-Factors statistics (which are based on Dean Oliver’s study of “What wins in basketball”) and found some interesting areas of focus that may end up being the deciding factors on today’s game. Take a look. (explanation of these statistics at the bottom of page)

Effective FG% Offense
Miami- 52.9
NC State- 51.4

The takeaway: Pretty close here, but Miami is a little bit of a better shooting team than NC State. The Pack shoots 46% from the field and 32% from 3pt range. Miami shoots 47% from the floor and 34.7% from 3. Neither of these teams rely on the 3 ball, and it’s probably because neither team shoots it exceptionally well. Miami gets a lot of their offense from Dewan Huell (a 6’11 center) who is shooting 63% from the floor and NC State.

Meanwhile, NC State is kind of in a transition phase. They were relying on Al Freeman for a lot of their offense (he has taken an insane 70 more shots than the next highest guy the FG attempts list, Torin Dorn), but that wasn’t working out since he is shooting a team worst 33.1% from the floor. So you can see why State’s shooting %’s have been so low. Lately, however, they have been relying on Yurtseven and Dorn for a majority of their offense, which seems to be working out much better for them since Dorn is shooting 55% and Yurt is at 60% (and 57% from 3).

Effective FG% Allowed
Miami- 43.4 (6th in the nation)
NC State- 50% 

The takeaway: Well look at Miami! They are 6th in the nation in keeping down team’s shooting %’s. This is thanks to a team of big guards and a very good 6’11 big in the middle. They are only about 1% behind Virginia in this category, but while the Cavs do it with physicality and position defense, Miami does it with size and athleticism.

NC State struggles here because they allow a lot of guard penetration, however with Markell Johnson back, you’ll see this number start to inch down in the coming weeks.

Turnover % on offense
Miami- 17.5
NC State- 16.8 (54th in nation)

The takeaway: Miami can get a little loose with the basketball when they are sped up. They do usually have 3 good ball handlers on the floor at all times, so that helps them deal with pressure, but they are also very aggressive and are always trying to make things happen. This could play into NC State’s hands if they can ratchet up the pressure with Johnson and Batts. That being said, Miami is coming off of two games where they were in single digits in the TO department, so maybe they are cleaning this up? But do remember that in their loss to GT, they coughed it up 18 times.

Turnover % forced
Miami- 20.5
NC State- 22 (33rd in nation)

The takeaway: Obviously, this is one area where NC State can bother the Hurricanes. They have been really good at forcing TOs and with Markell Johnson back, we’ll definitely see that number rise.

Miami is ok here, but their pressure is a lot less disciplined and sporadic. Keatts may have to go a little bigger against the Canes, so NC State could be more TO prone in that case.

Offensive rebounding % 
Miami- 28.7
NC State- 36.1 (12th in nation)

The takeaway: Huge difference here, and an area that NC State needs to take full advantage of. The Pack is one of the best teams in America when it comes to cleaning up the offensive glass. That is thanks to Omer Yurtseven being the 16th best player nationally in OR% and Dorn falling just outside the Top 100 (which is still really good).

For Miami, Huell leads their team with 38 offensive boards, which isn’t that great when you compare that to NC State, who has 3 guys better than that. Yurt has 58, Dorn has 54 and Lennard Freeman has 40.

Offensive rebounding % Allowed
Miami-28.3
NC State- 31.9

The takeaway: Miami is a bit better in not allowing offensive boards than NC State, but we’ve seen teams that supposedly are good on the defensive glass get beat up pretty good by the Wolfpack on the offensive glass.

FT Rate Offense
Miami- 27.7
NC State- 37.6

The takeaway: As usual, NC State does a better job of getting to the line than their opponent. In fact, NC State has gotten to the line a lot in every game this season except the game against Virginia (which was probably the most physical matchup of the season…go figure). The key here is for NC State to knock down their FTs. As a team they’ve been decent with Yurtseven starting to knock his down. But PGs Markell Johnson and Lavar Batts Jr need to sure themselves up at the line.

FT Rate Allowed
Miami-25.3 (23rd in the nation)
NC State- 34.4

The takeaway: Miami doesn’t put you on the line that much, and that makes sense with their athleticism. They have a good defense and are long and strong at every position. If NC State wants to get to the line they’ll need to really attack the basket with some aggression and look to draw body contact.

Overall
This is a pretty even matchup. Miami is young, but they have big guards and are athletic all around. It will be another interesting game of watching the lineups that Keatts comes up with, but it seems like one where Lennard Freeman and Malik Abu will be important pieces.

On paper, NC State has the advantage on the offensive glass and in the turnover department. If they win these battles and shooting %s hold true, then the Pack wins.

Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.

Turnover percentage is a pace-independent measure of ball security.

Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.

Free throw rate captures a team’s ability to get to the free-throw line.