NC State vs Pitt: By the (advanced) numbers

NC State is at Pitt tonight with tip slated for 9pm, (on Fox Sports South ). The Panthers come into this game at 8-12 on the season and 0-7 in the ACC. They have yet to record a quality win, and they’ve lost 7 in a row.

We took a look at the 4-Factors statistics (which are based on Dean Oliver’s study of “What wins in basketball”) and found some interesting areas of focus that may end up being the deciding factors on today’s game. Take a look. (explanation of these statistics at the bottom of page)

Effective FG% Offense
Pitt- 50.3
NC State- 51.8

The takeaway: Not many ACC teams are going to come in lower than the Wolfpack in eFG%, but Pitt is one of them. The Pack is actually 7th in the ACC in traditional FG % (which isn’t bad), but they are 13th in 3pt% and that drags down their eFG% significantly. Meanwhile, Pitt ranks 14th in traditional FG% and only slightly better than State (12th) in 3pt %, which when combined puts them slightly worse than the Pack in this category.  Only Syracuse and GT are worse than Pitt in eFG%. Also, keep in mind that Pitt is without their 6’9 senior, and leading scorer, Ryan Luther who was shooting 46% from the floor and 39% from 3pt range.

Effective FG% Allowed
Pitt– 49.6
NC State- 50.8

The takeaway: The Pitt defense isn’t that great, but neither is the Wolfpack’s. Both teams struggle to keep down their opponents shooting %. NC State has been criticized by Keatts for allowing too many open 3s, but he has a high standard. Opponents are shooting a pretty average 34% from downtown vs the Pack. Their problem has been more inside the arc, where they are allowing teams to shoot over 50%. This is interesting because State has a good shot-altering big in Yurtseven. What it points to is the inability of the guards to keep their man in front and their struggle to play coordinated team defense for full possessions.Too many breakdowns in help and recover, especially as of late.

For Pitt, the excuse is simple. These guys are all freshmen and sophomores. Their lone senior contributor (and leading scorer) Ryan Luther is out for the season with a broken foot, so this is a very green group and defense is usually the last area to develop, but give them credit, they’re harder to score on than NC State at the moment.

Turnover % on offense
Pitt – 22.4
NC State- 17

The takeaway: This is where the problem is going to come for Pitt. They are young and loose with the basketball. Their 22.4% turnover rate is almost the worst in the NCAA (literally). On the other hand, NC State is actually pretty good in this category (59th in the nation). This will be a huge factor in the outcome of tonight’s game.

Turnover % forced
Pitt- 16.8
NC State- 21.7 (40th in nation)

The takeaway:  To piggyback on that last point, Pitt turns the ball over a bunch, and when you couple that with the fact that NC State is good at turning people over, you see why Pitt should be worried. They will start all freshman guards and NC State will ratchet up the full-court pressure early and often. Look for the Wolfpack defense to possibly get their season high in deflections (in conference play) and for guys like Markell Johnson and Lavar Batts to cause havoc.

Offensive rebounding % 
Pitt- 24.8
NC State- 35.9 (13th in nation)

The takeaway: Another huge plus for the Pack is offensive rebounding. They are 13th in the nation in OR% and Omer Yurtseven leads the way. With Luther out (their best guy on the offensive glass), Pitt is going to have to rely on Terrell Brown or Shamiel Stevenson to get them second chances. The problem is, they both are under 25 offensive boards on the season and NC State has Yurt with 61, Dorn with 55 and Lennard Freeman has 40.

Pitt is last in rebounding in the ACC and 2nd to last in offensive rebounding. NC State has a massive advantage here and needs to make sure they capitalize on it.

FT Rate Offense
Pitt- 37.3
NC State- 37.2

The takeaway: Pitt gets to the line almost at the exact same rate at the Wolfpack. Both teams don’t shoot a ton of 3s, so you can see why their FT rate is pretty decent. Pitt has tried 461 3s and NC State has attempted 406. Both teams are best when they try to get to the bucket and their FT rate shows that.

FT Rate Allowed
Pitt-28.7
NC State- 33.7

The takeaway: Pitt does a better job at not putting teams on the line. This is well above average. You see this numbers with teams that play smart defense (Virginia for example), have great shot blockers. Pitt has neither, so I’m wondering if this is just a ‘lack of toughness’ from a young group that lets teams get to the rim and finish without too much physicality.

Overall

With the eFG%s near identical and NC State with such drastic advantages in both the offensive reboundign and turnover categories, you should expect a Wolfapck win if they take care of their business. All they need to do is play smart, play hard and execute and things shoudl take care of themselves.

Remember, however, that this is a road game and NC State has yet to win a conference game on the road. Will that factor in? Likely, but Pitt will need to play a very uncharacteristic game to beat NC State in this one.

If you’re Kevin Keatts and you’re looking at these numbers, you should be preaching toughness and defensive execution in this game. Take care of those things and you could make this a blowout.

Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.

Turnover percentage is a pace-independent measure of ball security.

Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.

Free throw rate captures a team’s ability to get to the free-throw line.