NC State vs Notre Dame: By the (advanced) numbers

NC State takes on Notre Dame today at 12 noon (on the ESPN ). The Irish come into this game at 13- 9 on the season and 3-6 in the ACC. They have lost their last 6 games, mostly because they have been without three of their top players (Bonzi Colson, Matt Farrell and DJ Harvey.) Colson and Harvey will remain out vs NC State and Matt Farrell will be a game-time decision.

We took a look at the 4-Factors statistics (which are based on Dean Oliver’s study of “What wins in basketball”) and found some interesting areas of focus that may end up being the deciding factors on today’s game. Take a look. (explanation of these statistics at the bottom of page)

Effective FG% Offense
Notre Dame- 51.3
NC State- 51.4

The takeaway: You don’t get much closer than this. The Pack and Irish are just .1% away from one another in eFG%. Last time these two teams met, Notre Dame was well ahead of NC State in this category, however, the loss of Colson really hurt them. Couple that with the fact that Harvey and Farrell have both missed time and you can see how they’ve fallen from an eFG of 55.6% (which was 16th best in the nation), to a tick below NC State at 51.3. Just look at their 6 game losing streak. They shot 36% vs Duke, 39% vs VT and Clemson, 38% vs Louisville, 35% vs UNC, and 36% vs. Georgia Tech. Notre Dame is struggling to score it right now, so if NC State can make shots, they should be in good shape.

Effective FG% Defense
Notre Dame–  48.8
NC State- 51

The takeaway: Notre Dame has is better at NC State at making it difficult for their opponents to score, but not by all that much. Look at their play of late. They allowed both Duke and VT to shoot over 50% (both games without Matt Farrell). They are trending down, but NC State isn’t exactly doing much to close that gap. They allowed two of their last three opponents to shoot over 50% (UNC 52% and Miami 56%).

Turnover % on offense
Notre Dame- 15.3 (18th in nation)
NC State- 16.7

The takeaway: Notre Dame does a good job of taking care of the basketball, however last time these teams met, the Irish were #2 in the nation with a TO% of  13.4%. They have fallen some, but not all that much. Even without Farrell, they’ve been able to keep TO’s down. For the Wolfpack, they have actually stayed pretty consistent. They were at 17% in this category when these teams met last time, and are pretty close to that number once again. Both teams are doing a good job of valuing the basketball.

Turnover % forced
Notre Dame- 18.3
NC State- 21.3 (40th in nation)

The takeaway: As usual, NC State sees a pretty big advantage in TO% forced and they are only getting better. They’ve forced 28 TOs over their past two games. The reintegration of Markell Johnson has really helped the cause here. His pressure D has led to opposing PGs giving the ball up a lot faster, which has caused teams to get a little more careless. If Farrell sits this one out, NC State could do some serious damage in this category.

Offensive rebounding % 
Notre Dame – 32.8
NC State- 35.6 (17th in nation)

The takeaway: Again, an area that the Pack often outperforms their opponents is on the offensive glass. They are well ahead of the Irish here and actually are 17th in the nation in this number. Colson and Harvey will be out, so look for Yurtseven and the Pack to have another big day here.

Offensive rebounding % Allowed
Notre Dame – 29.3
NC State- 31.5

The takeaway: ND has done a pretty good job not allowing second-chance points, but so have a lot of NC State’s opponents and that hasn’t stopped the Pack from being dominant on the offensive glass. For ND, they’ll need to rely on Geben who hit up State for 5 offensive rebounds last time out.

FT Rate Offense
Notre Dame – 30.6
NC State- 35.6

The takeaway: State gets to the line well thanks to Al Freeman and Torin Dorn. Notre Dame used to do a great job at getting to the line, but without Colson and Harvey in the lineup and with Gibbs mainly being a jump shooter, they’ll struggle here.

FT Rate Allowed
Notre Dame – 22.4 (2nd in the nation)
NC State- 33.1                                                                    

The takeaway: One of the best teams in the nation at not allowing teams to get to the line, the Irish play fundamental defense and don’t really foul that much. This is good news for them since their bench is getting pretty thin. They did allow Duke 19 trips to the line, but that’s abnormal

Overall
Even though the numbers look pretty even here, this is a little misleading. Notre Dame is trending down and NC State, for the most part, is trending up. The Irish aren’t doing things worse, they are just missing their best players. If they have Matt Farrell back, then some of these numbers could hold a little bit, but if not, look for the Irish to struggle to keep up with their averages. If NC State plays like they have, then their offensive rebounding and ability to force TOs should be too much for ND to handle, but if they struggle to shoot and Farrell returns, then this could be a back and forth exchange.

Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.

Turnover percentage is a pace-independent measure of ball security.

Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.

Free throw rate captures a team’s ability to get to the free-throw line.