Trusted “Dance Card” formula gives NC State 99.9% chance of a Tourney bid

The the “Dance Card” formula was developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Economists Incorporated, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University and is designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

This formula has correctly predicted 209 of 218 at-large bids over the last six years combined (96%).

According to the “Dance Card,” NC State is ranked #42 and has a 99.9% chance of getting a bid as of February 4th.

So, what changed? Did the Notre Dame win really vault NC State into a near ‘tournament lock”?

Nope. As we explained after the UNC game, everyone was so laser-focused on RPI and NC State’s weak SOS that they were shelving some of the biggest deciders out there. The Pack has a neutral court win against Arizona. They have home wins against Clemson and Duke and they have a road win over UNC and they had a really good chance of getting to 9 ACC wins (or more). All they had to do is continue to play the way they have been playing and they were in.

Interesting what happens when you really dig into the stats and take in the whole picture instead of cherry picking stats that fit your “Why NC State might not make the dance” narrative (as some decided to do after the UNC win).  In fact, if you had taken in the full statistical profile of NC State after the UNC win, the narrative was trending much more towards the “Why NC State is closing in on locking up an NCAA bid in a season where everyone and their mother picked them to finish in the bottom 4”

Now of course, 99.9% is not 100%. Any of these teams could fall apart. Shoot, some of these 100% teams could lose out and fail to get a bid. But as of now, with the information that’s out there, with the current statistical trends, NC State is closing in on being a lock for the NCAA tournament.

A big week this week could punch their ticket.