NC State vs Virginia Tech: By the (advanced) numbers

NC State is at Virginia Tech tonight at 9pm. The Hokies come into this game at 16- 7 on the season and 5-5 in the ACC. They are 3-3 over their past 6 games. Numbers wise, this team does a few things really well but does have deficiencies. The have a good record, but have they beaten anyone other than UNC? Well, the did throttle Washington (RPI #36) early this season in Blacksburg, but that’s it. They are actually 2-6 against the RPI top 50. Meanwhile, the Pack is 4-4 against RPI top 25 teams (State hasn’t played a game against a team ranked between 25-50 in the RPI).

We took a look at the 4-Factors statistics (which are based on Dean Oliver’s study of “What wins in basketball”) and found some interesting areas of focus that may end up being the deciding factors on today’s game. Take a look. (explanation of these statistics at the bottom of page)

Effective FG% Offense
Virginia Tech- 59.2 (3rd in nation)
NC State- 51.5

The takeaway:  Virginia Tech is 3rd in the nation when it comes to eFG%. They can score it and score it with efficiency. They are shooting over 50% from the field and 40% from 3pt range. They have shot makers at every spot on the floor, so NC State will need to be ready.

Effective FG% Defense
Virginia Tech– 49.8
NC State- 50.8

The takeaway: The Hokies D is ok, but not great. It’s about on par with NC State at the moment. The Pack will need to limit penetration on D and not allow VT to get clean looks from beyond the arc (they’ve done well there lately.) As for the Hokie’s ability to stop State? Well, it kind of depends which NC State team shows up. Since Markell has gotten back to fullspeed, they’ve looked great. In fact, they’ve shot over 50% in their past 2 outings.

Turnover % on offense
Virginia Tech- 17.1
NC State- 16.8 

The takeaway: Not a huge difference, but both teams don’t turn it over all that much. NC State is better here thanks to their ability to have 2 PGs on the floor most of the time. VT plays small, and most of their guys can handle the rock. Will that hinder State’s ability to create turnovers off the press? We’ll have to keep a close eye on that.

Turnover % forced
Virginia Tech- 18.1
NC State- 21.4 (39th in nation)

The takeaway:  Speaking of NC State’s ability to create turnovers, they are much better in this category, but again, Virginia Tech has a lot of ball handlers and may be able to neutralize the Wolfpack’s press. However, NC State does do a good job of getting the ball out of the PGs hands, and it doesn’t seem as if VT has faced many teams that have been able to do this. State WANTS to get them out of their comfort zone. Will they be able to is the question.

Offensive rebounding % 
Virginia Tech – 23.9
NC State- 35.7 (11th in nation)

The takeaway: Ok, so now we’re getting into an area where the Pack has a massive advantage. Virginia Tech is going to play small, so there will be mismatches on the floor. Who will take advantage of those? Well, the Pack has gotten where they are by playing small ball. Sure, they have Yurt in the middle, but with Dorn at the 4 most of the time, Virginia Tech won’t find as many mismatches as they usually do. Also, the Pack is the 11th best team in the nation in offensive rebounding and they’ve gotten there with this smaller lineup (Yurt and Dorn lead the team in OR%). Virginia Tech’s smaller lineup hasn’t proven to be effective on the offensive glass at all (in fact they are one of the worst in the nation).  State needs to win by a huge margain here.

Offensive rebounding % Allowed
Virginia Tech – 28
NC State- 31

The takeaway: VT allows less offensive boards, but not by much and NC State’s numbers here are trending up. Aside from the UNC game, NC State hasn’t been outrebounded since their early January matchup with Clemson. That’s an interesting stat to pay attention to. State has been winning on the offensive glass all season, but suddenly they’ve figured out how to win on the defensive glass as well. Also, teams that have been good AGAINST OR% haven’t seen that translate vs the Pack. So I suspect NC State goes bonkers on the offensive glass tonight.

FT Rate Offense
Virginia Tech – 38.4
NC State- 35.1

The takeaway: Virginia Tech gets to the line a little better than NC State, mostly because they have a very aggressive bunch that get a lot of perimeter mismatches.

FT Rate Allowed
Virginia Tech – 28.8
NC State- 32.8                                                                  

The takeaway: The Hokies don’t allow a lot of FT opportunities for their opponents. This is showing me that teams haven’t been successful going down low and beating them by going big and getting them in foul trouble. You want to beat VT, you’ve got to play their small ball game. Luckily, that’s what NC State is comfortable with.

Overall
Looking through the numbers, you see that Virginia Tech is a much better scoring team than the Wolfpack. They are more efficient and can score inside and out. However, NC State has outperformed metrics all season dominating teams in two areas; Turnovers and the offensive glass. Once again, those are the two areas that they have a huge advantage. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. It seems pretty apparent, that NC State’s ability to make VT take tough shots will be the decider. If the Hokies finish the game shooting over 50% it’s likely that the Pack aren’t able to pull this one out. But keep them in the low 40’s and win the turnover and rebounding battle and NC State can win another massive road game.

Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.

Turnover percentage is a pace-independent measure of ball security.

Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.

Free throw rate captures a team’s ability to get to the free-throw line.