SI Projects a Monster Season From Trea Turner

Former NC State All-American Shortstop Trea Turner is technically entering his 4th year in the majors. In 2015, Turner was called up at the end of the year for 22 games. In 2016, Turner spent the first two months of the season in the minors before being called up for his official rookie season. Last year he lost two months with a broken wrist.

There is no guarantee for a full season, but Sports Illustrated took a stab at what it could look like, and it looks monstrous.

Helpfully, Turner’s 2016 and 2017 add up to about full season. He played in 171 games across those two seasons, amassing 771 plate appearances. That’s about 150 more plate appearances than we’d expect for a No. 2 hitter over a full season, but it’s certainly close enough for the sake of comparison. Turner slashed .309/.351/.501 with 24 homers, 79 steals, 128 runs and 85 RBI the last two years. If we average it to 162 games, the counting stats come out to 23 homers, 75 steals, 122 runs and 81 RBI. Turner has earned every bit of his first-round ADP.

Now, a 23-homer, 75-steal, 122-run, 81-RBI season would be an incredible feat. You don’t need me to tell you that. But past isn’t always prologue, and no one should be locking in those numbers as floors for Turner. Let’s bring them all down a bit, and make them a little easier to achieve. It seems fair to project Turner for 20 homers, 60 steals, 100 runs and 70 RBI in a full 162-game season. Steamer has him at 17, 50, 96 and 66, but also has him playing just 139 games. If it gave him 162, or even 152, he’d likely hit all those thresholds in one of the most sophisticated projection systems.

So, how many times has a 20-homer, 60-steal, 100-run, 70-RBI season happened in MLB history? Four. Who owns those seasons? Joe Morgan and Rickey Henderson. Morgan did it in 1973 and 1976, while Henderson did it in 1985 and 1986. What does a full season of Turner look like? If he continues the trajectory he set for himself the last two seasons, it looks like Joe Morgan in his prime. That’s pretty good. (SI)

Morgan and Henderson were once in a generation caliber players. Even amateur baseball historians know their last names. Maybe years from now they will remember the name Turner in the same way.