NC State vs. #25 Florida State: By the (advanced) numbers

NC State takes on Florida State tonight at 6pm. The Seminoles come into this game at 19- 8 on the season and are one game behind NC State at  8-7 in the ACC. They currently are on a 2 game winning streak, one of which was a win over #15 Clemson. Their quality wins include that Clemson win, a win over #12 (at the time) UNC and a win over #5 (at the time) Florida

We took a look at the 4-Factors statistics (which are based on Dean Oliver’s study of “What wins in basketball”) and found some interesting areas of focus that may end up being the deciding factors on today’s game. Take a look. (explanation of these statistics at the bottom of page)

Effective FG% Offense
Florida State- 54.2
NC State- 53

The takeaway: These two teams are very similar in shooting %s. FSU is literally just 1% better than the Pack in both traditional FG% and 3-point %. The difference may be the fact that over the past few weeks, NC State has really taken a step forward. The Pack is shooting over 50% in their last 4 games and have hit nearly 47% of their 3s during that span. Meanwhile, FSU has been about average in FG% and a little below average in 3pt % over their previous 4.

Effective FG% Defense
Florida State- 48.1 (47th in nation)
NC State- 51.4

The takeaway: As expected, FSU is a little better at eFG% defense, but really they aren’t as good as you’d think based on their size, speed and athleticism. NC State has known issues in this area, but it’s become clear that Keatts isn’t worried about it. He wants to create turnovers, rule the offensive glass and make teams shoot a low % from 3point range. That’s the equation he bets on and lately it’s shown to be a winning one.

Turnover % on offense
Florida State- 17.4
NC State- 17.4

The takeaway: It’s incredible, but their TO%’s on offense are an exact tie down to the decimal. Both teams do a good job of keeping down turnovers despite playing at such a fast pace.

Turnover % forced
Florida State- 19.5
NC State- 21.1 (45th in nation)

The takeaway: NC State, as usual, has the advantage here. They are one of the better teams in the nation at turning you over thanks to their full-court pressure defense. It’s been speeding up teams and causing mistakes, but FSU loves to play at breakneck speeds, so will it affect them?

Offensive rebounding % 
Florida State- 34.2
NC State- 34.3

The takeaway: Another area where these teams are basically identical. Both teams get at it on the offensive glass do well with 2nd chance points. This will be a major battle to watch. NC State’s offensive rebounding has taken a dip lately, but mainly because they’ve been making more shots. The bigger key will be keeping FSU OFF the offensive glass.

Offensive rebounding % Allowed
Florida State- 29.9
NC State- 32

The takeaway: Florida State allows less offensive rebounds, but not by all that much. The Pack has recently been a little giving in this category and really needs Omer Yurtseven on the floor to secure defensive rebounds. Without him they end up with a lot of tipping it around, leading to opponents racking up the offensive boards.

FT Rate Offense
Florida State- 35.8
NC State- 34.8

FT Rate Allowed
Florida State – 30.9
NC State- 32.8

Overall
These two teams are very similar in terms of style. They both like to get out and run and they both play well at a faster pace. FSU is bigger and more athletic than NC State, but the Pack has been shooting a red-hot basketball as of late. If they continue to shoot it like they have and all these other stats hold true, NC State likely walks away with a win at home, but if FSU’s length and size can bother them, then this will be a very tough matchup.

Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.

Turnover percentage is a pace-independent measure of ball security.

Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.

Free throw rate captures a team’s ability to get to the free-throw line.