NC State vs. Georgia Tech: By the (advanced) numbers

NC State takes on Georgia Tech tonight at 8pm in Atlanta. The Yellow Jackets come into this game at 11-18 on the season and 4-12 in the ACC. They currently sit at 13th in the ACC and have lost 7 straight and 11 of their last 12. They have been playing without star freshman PG (and second leading scorer) Jose Alvarado, who is out for the season with a fractured elbow.

We took a look at the 4-Factors statistics (which are based on Dean Oliver’s study of “What wins in basketball”) and found some interesting areas of focus that may end up being the deciding factors on today’s game. Take a look. (explanation of these statistics at the bottom of page)

Effective FG% Offense
Georgia Tech – 47
NC State- 53.2

Effective FG% Defense
Georgia Tech – 49.5
NC State- 51.3

Turnover % on offense
Georgia Tech – 19.3
NC State- 17.3

Turnover % forced
Georgia Tech- 18.5
NC State- 21 (43rd in nation)

Offensive rebounding % 
Georgia Tech – 31.4
NC State- 34.3 (26th in nation)

Offensive rebounding % Allowed
Georgia Tech – 30.8
NC State-31.8

Adjusted Tempo
Georgia Tech – 65.2
NC State- 71.8

FT Rate Offense
Georgia Tech – 35.2
NC State- 34.5

FT Rate Allowed
Georgia Tech – 31.3
NC State- 33.2

Overall Takeaways
Looking at these stats, you can see that NC State clearly has the advantage. They are outperforming GT in all their ‘strength’ areas and only losing to them by a very small margin in the categories that are a bit less important.

For instance, NC State is shooting the ball much better as a team. They are turning the ball over less than GT and forcing TO’s at a much higher rate as well. Couple that with the fact that NC State is going to really speed this game up, and the Jackets are going to try to slow it down. All these things are a big advantage to the Wolfpack. The faster GT plays, the more mistakes they are going to make, especially with their starting PG sidelined.

NC State also beats Georgia Tech in offensive rebounding. So that’s a clean sweep in the Keatts world. He is focused on stats that equal extra possessions. So TOs and Offensive rebounding stats seem to be pretty good predictors of this team. NC State dominates on both fronts.

In the ACC ranks, Georgia Tech is 13th in FG% and dead last (32%) in 3-point percentage, which is another big stats for Keatts. They are 12th in rebounding and 9th in offensive rebounding. They are 13th in assists, however they do rank 6th in steals.

The Yellow Jackets are 14th in the ACC in overall scoring on the season and want to slow the pace of play down. Meanwhile, NC State is doing everything they can to speed it up, create extra possessions and score a lot of points.

Statistically this is a pretty bad matchup for Georgia Tech and one NC State, if they come out focused and with energy, should really take advantage of.

Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.

Turnover percentage is a pace-independent measure of ball security.

Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.

Free throw rate captures a team’s ability to get to the free-throw line.