NC State Ranks 23rd in PFF’s Week 2 Power Rankings

ProFootballFocus ranks NC State 23rd in their Week 2 ELO Power Rankings. The Wolfpack entered the season ranked 19th, and fell to 21st after Week 1.

1) Alabama
2) Wisconsin
3) Georgia
4) Oklahoma
5) Ohio St.
6) Clemson
7) Penn St.
8) Auburn
9) Stanford
10) Notre Dame
11) LSU
12) UCF
13) Oklahoma State
14) Iowa
15) Washington
16) Boise State
17) USF
18) Mississippi State
19) TCU
20) USC
21) Virginia Tech
22) Michigan
23) NC State
24) Miami
25) Utah

Here’s PFF’s explanation of how they calculate their Power Rankings. As usual, it’s pretty fascinating.

Like all ELO systems (including our version for the NFL), PFF ELO is an iterative system that updates each team’s rating after each game based on two things: how well they played against their opponent and how well they were expected to play against their opponent. The PFF ELO rating system measures the former using our unique offensive, defensive and special teams grades, while the latter is determined by the PFF ELO ratings leading up to the game and where the game is played.

For example, a heavy favorite playing at home is expected to outplay the visitor, so a victory would result in only a small rise in their PFF ELO rating and a similarly-small decrease in the defeated team’s, but if an upset were to happen, the visiting team would see their PFF ELO rating rise substantially, and the home team’s see a similarly-sized drop.

Sometimes in football, the best team does not win, and PFF ELO accounts for these oddities by using our grades. Hence there will be teams rated higher or lower in this system than their win-loss record would suggest. Since PFF began charting college football in 2014, the difference in PFF ELO values alone has been able to explain over three-fourths of the variance in the closing Vegas line. (PFF)