Breaking Down NC State’s Chances at a New Years Day Bowl

Prior to last night’s updated College Football Playoff Rankings, NC State’s chance of landing a Major New Years Day Bowl (NY6) were going to be an uphill battle. With the CFP committee bumping the Wolfpack from #21 to #14, an NY6 bowl became a much more likely scenario.

Joe Giglio of the News & Observer used his trusty Yellow Pad to break down how the Major Bowls would shake out if the season ended today.

A few things have to break NC State’s way in order for the Wolfpack to land in a Major Bowl, because the cards aren’t stacked in their favor.

The Orange Bowl has an ACC tie-in, and if it weren’t one of the two Bowls making up the College Football Playoff Semifinals this year, the #2 ACC team (according to the CFP rankings) would automatically be in the Orange Bowl on New Years Day. With the Orange dubbed as a CFP Semifinals host, the ACC technically doesn’t have a tie-in to a Major Bowl in 2018.

So how does NC State land in a New Years Day Bowl?

For starters, the Wolfpack needs to win their 4 remaining regular season games: Wake Forest, Louisville, UNC and East Carolina.

Secondly, NC State most likely needs Syracuse to take an L. Even if one of the teams currently projected to go to one of the major bowls loses, the Orangemen sit one spot ahead of the Wolfpack in the rankings currently, giving them the next hypothetical spot. Syracuse still has to play #3 Notre Dame and #17 Boston College. Odds are they aren’t winning out the next three games.

The Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl both have conference tie-ins that make them impossible landing spots for the Wolfpack. The Rose Bowl will be Big Ten vs. Pac-12, and the Sugar Bowl will be SEC vs. Big 12.

That leaves the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl as the only two Major Bowls that are on the table. Neither one of them have a conference tie-in attached to them, and they will be filled with the remaining teams that are ranked the highest in the CFP Poll. The only team that is locked into either the Fiesta or Peach is the highest ranked Group of 5 school, which is currently #12 UCF.

As you can see from Joe’s Yellow Pad breakdown above, if the season ended today, LSU, Kentucky and West Virginia are the three teams that would land in the Fiesta and Peach Bowls.

#11 Kentucky already has two losses, so one more loss, and they are out. Unfortunately, their remaining schedule is Tennessee, Middle Tennessee State and Louisville.

#7 LSU has two losses, but they have a good chance of winning out: Arkansas, Rice, Texas A&M.

#9 West Virginia, who NC State was slated to play earlier in the year, but was cancelled due to Hurricane Florence, only has one loss. The close to their season isn’t an easy one. They have to play TCU, Oklahoma State, and finish with #6 Oklahoma. The most likely scenario is that they will have to play them again the very next week in the Big 12 Championship Game, but they could slip prior to that.

Teams that are currently projected in Major Bowls with conference tie-ins could slip in the upcoming weeks, shaking things up and opening up spots.

#6 Oklahoma (1 loss) has a rivalry game against Oklahoma State this weekend, followed by Kansas, then ending the regular season against #9 West Virginia.

#10 Ohio State (1 loss) has #18 Michigan State and #4 Michigan left on the schedule.

A lot can happen in the next three weeks.

Things could break NC State’s way, and they could win out, and find a way into a Major Bowl on New Years Day. The Wolfpack have never played in a Major Bowl.

On the flip side, NC State could feasibly finish 10-2, and land in Orlando at the Camping World Bowl.

There is also a disastrous possibility that NC State underachieves, and finds a way to lose one of the next 4 games, against an opponent they will be double-digit favorites against. If that happens, I have wasted a lot of time writing this article.

It would be truly magical for NC State to land in a Major Bowl for the 1st time on New Year’s Day.

The Wolfpack’s next order of business is to beat Wake Forest on Thursday.

We will keep you up-to-date with all the different Wolfpack bowl scenarios as the upcoming weeks unfold.