NC State Ranks 21st in PFF’s Week 14 Power Rankings

After beating rival UNC 34-28 in overtime this past Saturday, NC State slipped back 2 spots to #21 in ProFootballFocus’ ELO Week 14 Power Rankings.

Preseason: 19th
Week 1: 21st
Week 2: 23rd
Week 3: 24th
Week 4: 19th
Week 5: 16th
Week 6: 13th
Week 7: 15th
Week 8: 22nd
Week 9: 23rd
Week 11: 24th
Week 13: 19th
Week 14: 21st

PFF Week 14 Power Rankings

1) Alabama (-)
2) Clemson (-)
3) Notre Dame (-)
4) Georgia (-)
5) Oklahoma (-)
6) UCF (+1)
7) Penn State (+1)
8) Ohio State (+1)
9) Boise State (+1)
10) Michigan (-4)
11. Washington (+3)
12. Mississippi State (+4)
13. LSU (-1)
14. Fresno State (+3)
15. Texas(-)
16. Utah (+2)
17. Iowa (+7)
18. Auburn (-5)
19. Washington State (-8)
20. Missouri (-)
21. NC State (-2)
23. Northwestern (-)
23. Miami (Fla.) (+17)
24. Appalachian State (-2)
25. Army (-4)

Here’s PFF’s explanation of how they calculate their Power Rankings. As usual, it’s pretty fascinating.

Like all ELO systems (including our version for the NFL), PFF ELO is an iterative system that updates each team’s rating after each game based on two things: how well they played against their opponent and how well they were expected to play against their opponent. The PFF ELO rating system measures the former using our unique offensive, defensive and special teams grades, while the latter is determined by the PFF ELO ratings leading up to the game and where the game is played.

For example, a heavy favorite playing at home is expected to outplay the visitor, so a victory would result in only a small rise in their PFF ELO rating and a similarly-small decrease in the defeated team’s, but if an upset were to happen, the visiting team would see their PFF ELO rating rise substantially, and the home team’s see a similarly-sized drop.

Sometimes in football, the best team does not win, and PFF ELO accounts for these oddities by using our grades. Hence there will be teams rated higher or lower in this system than their win-loss record would suggest. Since PFF began charting college football in 2014, the difference in PFF ELO values alone has been able to explain over three-fourths of the variance in the closing Vegas line. (PFF)