Previewing NC State vs. Miami: By the Numbers

#18 NC State and Miami will kickoff their ACC slate tonight down in Coral Gables at 7pm on ESPNU, but before they do, let’s break down the matchup by the numbers.

To break down the matchup, I will primarily be referencing the Four Factors that Dean Oliver made famous almost two decades ago: Effective Field Goal Percentage, Turnover Percentage, Offensive Rebounding Percentage, and Free Throw Rate.

Oliver concluded that these were the Four Factors of Basketball Success, with their level of importance being in that order.

• Effective Field Goal% is an alternative to FG%, which inflates when the team makes three pointers.
• Turnover Rate is an estimation of turnovers committed by a team per 100 possessions.
• Offensive Rebound Rate is the percentage of contested rebounds that a team grabs after its own missed shots.
• Free Throw Rate is the number of free throw attempts per every field goal attempt. Apart from easy points, free throws contribute towards opponent’s foul trouble. (Link)

NC State Offensive Four Factors vs. Miami

The Wolfpack enters the contest as one of the hottest shooting teams in the land, ranked 5th nationally in Effective FG% (59.5%). In comparison, Miami’s Effective FG% Defense ranks 131st nationally (49.4%).

NC State hasn’t done a good job taking care of the basketball through non-conference play, ranking 157th nationally in Turnover % (18.7%). Fortunately, the Hurricane’s Defensive Turnover % is middle of the road, ranking 70th nationally (21.4%).

The Wolfpack has shown they are one of the best nationally in crashing the offensive glass through the first 13 games, ranking 8th nationally in Offensive Rebounding % (38.5%). Miami isn’t excellent when it comes to boxing out to snag defensive rebounds, ranking 117th (27.1%).

As aggressive as NC State is at running the court, they haven’t been successful at getting to the charity stripe, ranking 211th in Free Throw Rate (32.4). The Wolfpack aren’t going to get any favors in this area from the Hurricanes tonight, who rank 3rd nationally in Defensive Free Throw Rate. They keep their hands to themselves.

NC State Defensive Four Factors vs. Miami

Miami ranks 60th in Effective FG% (54.1%), and the Wolfpack hold their opponents to an EFG% of 46.8%, which ranks 62nd nationally.

The Hurricanes don’t do a great job holding onto the basketball, ranking 101st nationally in Turnover % (17.6%). Not good sign for the home team tonight…the Wolfpack rank 3rd nationally in Defensive Turnover % (25.7%)

Don’t expect Miami to dominate the offensive glass tonight, ranking a dreary 239th in Offensive Rebounding % (26.5%). The Wolfpack have been halfway decent at keeping their opponents off the offensive glass, ranking 63rd nationally (25.4%).

Fortunately, when it comes to the last factor, Miami is weak where NC State is weak. The Hurricanes rank 205th in Free Throw Rate (33.0), and NC State ranks 267th (38.3) in Defensive Free Throw Rate. The Wolfpack aggressively foul, but Miami isn’t aggressive offensively.

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When it comes to Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, NC State holds the edge in both.