Exactly How Unlikely was NC State’s 69-67 Victory Over Clemson?

I knew that NC State beat the odds beating Clemson 69-67 with a buzzer-beater earlier today, but I just couldn’t help myself.

I needed to know how bad the odds were as the time ticked off the clock.

(The following data is from ESPN’s Gamecast.) 

When Torin Dorn hit a three pointer with 2:24 left in the game, NC State had a 41.5% chance of winning.

Had NC State snagged the defensive rebound when Marcquise Reed missed a 3-point attempt, I’m not sure what the odds were, but they would have been better than Clyde Trapp getting 3 offensive rebounds that ended in a layup. When the ball went through the hoop, the Wolfpack had a 33.9% chance of winning.

When Markell Johnson missed a three-pointer with 1:19 on the clock, NC State’s chances dwindled down to 24.2%

When Marquise Reed followed Johnson’s miss with a successful jumper, the Wolfpack’s odds sunk to 14.8%.

When Torin Dorn missed a three-pointer with 40 seconds left, NC State’s chances dwindled to 6.6%.

When Clyde Trapp made a free throw with 34 seconds left, giving Clemson a 6-point lead, the Wolfpack had a 6.7% chance.

When Sheldon Mitchell made a free throw with 26 seconds left, NC State’s chances fell to 5%.

Markell Johnson’s and-1 play with 19 seconds made it a three-point game, but the Wolfpack still only had a 10.6% chance of winning.

When Marcquise Reed missed his first set of free throws with 13 seconds left, the Wolfpack’s chances increased to 15.4%.

Even when Reed missed his next set of free throws, with 7 seconds left, down by 1, NC State’s chances of victory were 16.4%.

Also, the odds that Marcquise Reed would actually miss 4 consecutive free throws…

Marquis Reed is a 84% free throw shooter for the season and was 9-10 up to the last minute. Doing the math, for him to miss four consecutive times comes down to a 0.498% chance of occurring.

We got lucky.

— Brian Onorio (@brianonorio) January 26, 2019

Who cares about the odds anyways.

NC State is 16-4 despite the odds.