DEEP STATS: Studying up on what last week’s Notre Dame win can tell us about the Pack’s ACCT chances

The Pack had one of their best showings against Notre Dame last week when they took out the Irish 80-69. Notre Dame then turned around and waxed the 2nd best team in the ACC, Florida State, 83-73. That made us want to circle back on the NC game and take a closer What exactly went so right for State and how can they capture that lighting in a bottle for the upcoming ACCT gauntlet they’ll be put through.

Agaisnt ND, the Pack had an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 61% which is well above their season average of 53.2%  and actually matches the season-high.  The other was a 21 point victory over Umass-Lowell early in the season.  That’s impressive given Notre Dame is a tough ACC opponent.

Effective Field Goal Percentage, or eFG%, is calculated the following way:

(2pt FGM + 1.5*3pt FGM) / FGA

This means a made three-pointer is worth one and a half times as much as a made two-pointer. A player who shoots 4 for 10 on all two-point baskets has a standard FG% of 40% and an eFG% of 40%. But, if all those makes were three-pointers, that player’s eFG% is 60%, reflecting the extra value of a made three.

In a real game of basketball, what matters is points scored per possession. A player whose eFG% is 60% is scoring at a rate equal to shooting 60% on two-point field goal attempts, a very respectable number. (link)

Sow what does this tell us moving forward? Well, eFG% gets to looking good when you’re not just shooting well from the field, but when you’re knocking down your 3s. State shot almost 40% from long range in that game and shot 54% from the field.

What this points to is that NC State played inside out. They looked for easy buckets first and then kicked out to open shooters when the defense collapsed. This is what Keatts wants to do and it’s what he has been trying to get his freshmen to understand all along. When NC State plays inside out, they move the ball more, they get better shots and they convert at a higher rate. They certainly need to make sure they keep this going in the ACC Tournament, especially against Syracuse who wants to bait you to just swing the ball side to side and launch contested 3s.

The Pack also posted an ACC low for the season in Turnover Percentage (% of possessions you turn the ball over) at 12%.  Impressive given that Pack saw huge minutes from their freshman.  You can really start to see the Freshman grow in this stat.  Since the Syracuse and Duke loss (where the Pack saw a Turnover Percentage over 20% in each) it has steadily declined in each game.  Though it does need to be said that Notre Dame sports an ACC worst 12.5% Defensive Turnover Rate.

What this tells us is obvious. NC State isn’t going to win when they are turning the ball over. Turn it over less, get more shots. Get more shots (and follow advice on eFG% section) and make more shots. Make more shots, get more points. You win.

On the defensive end, the Pack opponents average around a 50% Effective Field Goal Percentage.  This game wasn’t too far from average for State, holding Notre Dame to a 44% eFG%.  But, let’s not forget this is an efficient scoring Notre Dame is a team who averages, on the season, a 55% Effective Field Goal Percentage.

The Pack also did all this without forcing nearly as many turnovers as they are used to. The Pack sits a 19.7 Defensive Turnover Percentage on average.  In this game, they only saw a 12.7 Defensive Turnover Percentage.

This was an interesting one for us. State only turned ND over 11 times, and when you think of Kevin Keatts and NC State, you think of a team that needs to turn you over a lot to win. But this team has changed it’s identity. They no longer have to turn you over. They are forced to play big now and because of that, they are forced to play better position defense and do less gambling. This is equating to less turnovers.

The fact that NC State could beat a team like ND by this much, only turning them over 11 times is telling. This is a team that has changed from a high-volume possession team to a team that is learning to be more efficient on offense and more disciplined on defense.

This all goes to show that the Pack really did have one of their best showings of the season against the Irish, but they did it all in a way you may not have expected. This is a new team now. They have new strengths and new weaknesses. So understanding what went on vs. Notre Dame, may help you understand what they need to do be successful moving forward in the postseason.