McPackington: This is how NC State makes the NCAA Tournament

This article is an updated version of the one we wrote on 2/26.

When I wrote the first article, I took a look at what the Pack would have to do with 3 games left to have a shot at the NCAA tourney.  Mainly, it was about them needing to win out, which they did…sort of.  While the Pack did everything they were supposed to on their end, there were a few things that didn’t go their way.

First, Notre Dame lost to BC prior to playing State.  A terrible loss for Notre Dame, also not great for the Pack.  If Notre Dame wins that game, the road game for the Pack ends up being a Quad 1 win.  But that loss changed that.  Though still an impressive win, this win only counts as a Quad 2 win.  Then you had a big matchup at home versus Virginia Tech.  While this was a tougher matchup, the fact that it was at home would have made it also another Quad 2 win.  But none of that matters and VT is done for the regular season and now so is the Pack.

Where Do We Stand:

While it would have been nice to play one more game, especially against a quality opponent, it just didn’t make sense for anyone to step in for VT and play an unscheduled game against a red-hot Wolfpack squad.  Since we are now done for the regular season, we can take a look at our current resume and what it will take to get in.

Currently, State (13-9) has a NET ranking of 66, moving only 7 spots behind Duke.  The Pack is 1-6 against Q1 opponents, 3-2 against Q2, 4-0 against Q3, and 5-1 in Q4 (again, that Miami loss hurt).

Right now, according to Bracketology, both Duke and Syracuse are on the outside looking in according to ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi.  The ‘Last 4 In’ according to Lunardi are Colorado State, Michigan State, Xavier, and Boise State.

Michigan State is interesting as they sit behind Duke, Syracuse, and NC State in the NET Rankings. Though they have been hot of late and currently hold a 14-11 record with 4 Q1 wins and almost all their losses coming in Q1 as well.

Next, you have Boise State who is another interesting team to look at.  They are 45 in NET with a 2-4 Q1 record, 2-2 against Q2, 4-0 against Q3, and 9-1 in Q4.  Meaning most of their wins have come from Q4 teams.  So realistically, we are looking at a team with a higher NET ranking, due to 1 extra Q1 win, 2 fewer losses (playing 2 fewer Q1 teams), and 4 more wins (again, mostly against Q4).

Now, am I saying that State deserves to be in over these teams?  No not at the moment, but it does certainly bring up some very interesting questions and paints a picture showing that the Pack really are not quite out of the running just yet.

What’s Next?

The Pack was originally looking at a possible 10 seed, but Duke’s loss to UNC this weekend changed things.

With the Duke loss, you now have a whole new picture. The Pack moves into the 9-seed to play Syracuse in the first round, and here is where it gets a little more interesting. As of yesterday, Syracuse had a NET ranking of 51.  A Quadrant 1 win on a neutral court is considered beating a team with a 1-50 NET ranking, but with no games left for Syracuse, it would take a loss from another high 40’s NET team for Syracuse to move up 1 spot.

Well, thanks to losses by Louisville and Colorado State, that’s exactly what happened. Syracuse now sits at a NET 49 ranking, which gives the Pack a chance to get a Q1 win in the first round.

Next, they would face the #1 seeded UVA (who they have already beat once), giving them another chance to get a Q1 win.

Are We In?:

Let’s say the Pack just beats Syracuse.

This puts the Pack at 14-9 with 2 Q1 wins, which would have to put us squarely on the bubble. I’m not too sure it would get us in, but it would definitely get us in the conversation.

State’s future, after a round 1 win, would more than likely be in the hands of other bubble teams. You’d have to have a few bad losses from those teams to let State sneak in.

Now if they beat both Syracuse and UVA, you are now looking at a team that sits at 15-9 with 3 Q1 wins.  This gives this Wolfpack team arguably a stronger resume than Boise St with only a few fewer wins and a comparable resume to Michigan State.  Let’s not forget that the Pack would be looking at a 7-game win streak in the ACC along with 7 straight wins on the road or on a neutral site. How do you leave a time like that out?

I would say that with those 2 wins in the ACC Tournament, the Pack with be sitting quite pretty to get into the Big Dance.

With the combination of 2 more Q1 wins and their recent hot streak, it would be hard for me to see the committee leaving them out.  Again, it all comes down to how the committee will judge teams this season.  With teams missing players at times, missing big games, and W-L records all over the place, it will be next to impossible to predict how the committee will factor who all gets in.

Let’s be real…

You may disagree with this take, but if the committee has no true way to determine who deserves to get in, I think revenue may also come into play, which in my opinion, could help NC State.

You know good and well that these guys want their UNC, Duke, Michigan States in there.  The only way you’re calling me a conspiracy theorist is if you have no experience in big business. You can spin it however you want, it’s always all about the money, baby.

Now I’m not saying the Pack is on that level of Blue Bloods (financially), but they do hold a lot more weight than say a Xavier, Boise State, or Colorado State.  Again, this is just an opinion. I hate to think the NCAA would do something for the sake of revenue (like turning a blind eye to fake classes or something)….but hey, you never know.

So there you have it. Two more wins for the Pack and you could end up seeing what most fans considered impossible. What most media haven’t even considered, and STILL aren’t talking about.

We’re not talking NIT here. We are talking about the very real chance of an NCAA Tournament berth with a couple more wins.  And once they are in, who knows, but it’s been a crazy past 12 months and the Big Dance is no stranger to unlikely runs…like this one….and that one time in ’83.