BY THE NUMBERS: Davidson’s offense ranks near the top, but these stats may be deceptive

They say that you can predict who is going to win a basketball game by focusing on the ‘Four Factors’ — shooting (effective field goal percentage), rebounding (offensive and defensive rebounding rates), turnovers (turnover rate), and getting to the free-throw line (free throw rate) — and generates how many points a team scores, and gives up, per 100 possessions.

We wanted to put this to the test and see where NC State and Davidson rank when put up against each other. Take a look.

Offensive Four Factors

Effective FG%
NC State – 52.7% (63rd)
Davidson – 55.5% (17th) •

Off Rebound%
NC State – 29.9% (107th) •
Davidson – 28.3% (157th)

FTA/FGA
NC State – 32.1 (161st) •
Davidson – 27.1 (283rd)

Turnover%
NC State – 18.6% (158th)
Davidson – 17.3% (88th) •

Defensive Four Factors

Effective FG%
NC State – 51.5% (232nd)
Davidson – 49.3% (136th) •

Off Rebound%
NC State – 32.6% (321st)
Davidson – 22.2% (12th) •

FTA/FGA
NC State – 29.3 (118th)
Davidson – 28.9 (111th) •

Turnover%
NC State – 22% (37th) •
Davidson – 16.2% (315th)

Now you’re probably wondering why it looks like the numbers are saying that Davidson is going to run away with this game, however, there is some deception going on.

When we break down these numbers in the regular season, you are comparing apples to apples. NC State and their opponents are playing the same level of talent night in and night out. That isn’t the case here.

The numbers you are seeing from NC State are with them going up against ACC-level talent on a nightly basis. Meanwhile, Davidson is playing in the A-10. But how much will that affect anything?

We think it will have a big effect.

There is no doubt that Davidson is one of the best offensive teams in the nation when you look at statistics, but when you watch them on film, you see a team that is big, poised, and can shoot it. However, they aren’t very athletic, and they seem to be susceptible to longer teams that apply pressure (ala NC State).  That, however, is for another article. This is the numbers article and when you look at them side by side, it looks like Davidson has the advantage.

The Wildcats are very efficient. They are very patient and they don’t turn the ball over. They have shooters at every spot and they work hard to get them open looks. On defense they do a great job of limiting second-chance points, however, they are not going to turn you over. I know this might sound weird, but Davidson is the team you get if you mixed Notre Dame and Virginia together.

With all of that said, it’s hard to use these numbers as much of an indicator of what will happen on Thursday. They are teams that have played very different competitions all year long. Davidson has spent the entire year being the biggest team on the court, however, against NC State, that won’t be the case.