Vonwolf is the Devil, Here to Say the NIT Doesn’t Matter

There are going to be a lot of people reading this and saying “Vonwolf, STFU, just let them play.”

There will also be those handful of “State fans” that “love State” but yet only trash this school, that will now call me their leader.

I hope State does well in the NIT…but it’s pretty worthless.

Catapult to Future Success

I’ll admit, if I was a gambling man (I am), I would guess that teams that make the Finals of the NIT, see benefits in future years. Annnnndddddddd I just lost my house…

Projecting a little, but the NIT has slowly, year after year, dwindled in significance. If you won it in 1991, it would pay dividends in recruiting and fan buy-in. In 2021, however, I just don’t think that’s the case. For statistical backing, I went through each of the last 10 NIT Championships to determine if there was positive change for teams that at least got to the Finals.

Winning Percentage:
Year in Finals: .631
Following Year: .618
Two-Years Out: .609

Rutrow

Tournament Appearances Following Year:
55% of Teams make the NCAAT the following year…That’s a coin toss, which should come as no surprise seeing most NIT teams tend to be floating around the bubble anyways.

It should also be noted, in the last five years, only 3 Finals teams have made the NCAAT the following year (yikes 30% :|). Historically, the numbers start skewing less and less. That could be a trend or a wonderful, cyclical anomaly.

So in short, if you make the Finals, there is no correlation to future success.

Gives Freshmen More Playing Time

This statement is 100% true…but…I have a hard time believing that Keatts is going to come in and drastically change who plays and how they play. Maybe Moore plays significantly more than Braxton, but DJ is going to get his standard minutes (especially if the matchup is working). I will grant, that playing extra time in a one-and-done scenario adds a multiplier to the experience points. I just don’t know how much it matters when it could end up being an additional 30 minutes, followed by seven months with no games.

Inj***ies

Like…not saying…just saying…but I didn’t say it…

Doomsday Scenario

That’s a harsh header, but here is a very bad thought…State gets smoked by Davidson. I wholeheartedly believe that it will be a good game, but I also think that Davidson might be the best of the three possible, early opponents. On paper, it’s awesome to have the chance to redeem yourself from the disaster that was Syracuse. This game has now, however, become a pseudo “must win.” So yes to experience points, but also yes to the chances this hurts Keatts and the young players mentally coming out of this weird season.

I will be glued to my tv tonight. Every ounce of me will be excited to see this team on the court, in the hopes we put together a great game. Unless we get a win or two, I don’t necessarily put much value in this whole NIT thing.

Regardless, just know that with the good, could come the bad.