NC State may be underdogs vs. Richmond, but backcourt size and length may give the Wolfpack a leg up

Richmond comes into this game vs NC State with a 6-4 record.

The Spiders have early-season wins over Hofstra, Wofford, and Toledo, with notable losses to Maryland and Mississippi State.

They aren’t a team with great size or athleticism, but they do have shooters and a plethora of skill players. One guy who could be a matchup problem for the Wolfpack is junior forward Tyler Burton.

Burton is a 6’7 future pro. He’s got a great, physical build, weighing in at 215lbs. He is basically a big scoring guard who is shooting an elite 47% from long range. But this kid isn’t just a shooter, in fact he gets most of his buckets in other ways. Burton can face you up, put it on the floor and get to the hoop. Or he can back you down and score in the post. Here are some highlights..

NC State will likely use Jericole Hellems and Dereon Seabron to guard him. Hellems is also an undersized forward with guard skills. He’s not as athletic or versatile as Burton, but he’s close. Hellems comes in at 200lbs, so he’ll be giving up 15 pounds. However, Hellems best attribute is his ability to guard multiple types of players and he’s faced a few guys like Burton before. Meanwhile, Seabron on Burton may be a matchup Keatts likes, since Seabron is quicker and more athletic, potentially forcing Burton to try to do more of his damage inside.

Burton is averaging 18 ppg and almost 7 rebounds. He’s also shooting over 57% from the floor. Slowing him down is a key to NC State coming out with a win and NC State has options to do just that. Most teams don’t have a single guy that can slow down Burton. NC State has a physical option with Hellems or a more athletic option with Seabron. This is important to note since Richmond does not do a lot of ball screening for Burton, meaning whoever is on him, likely won’t be switching very much.

The other key will be guarding senior big man Grant Golden. Now, upon first glance, Golden shouldn’t be a problem. He’s 6’10, 255lbs, but he’s not very athletic. Guarding him will be Ebe Dowuona, who lately has come into his own and is 6’11 himself. However, Dowuona has struggled against guys like Golden. He’s one of those bigs who is crafty, knows how to use his body, and finishes well with both hands. He’s also a great passer and can shoot it if you leave him open. You can expect a lot of pump fakes and body bumps before he goes up from the block. Dowuona will have to be disciplined with his shot-blocking and his positioning against Golden. If he’s too quick to jump, he’ll find himself in foul trouble real fast.

At guard, the main guy NC State needs to key on is Jacob Gilyard. The 5’10 senior isn’t big, but he too is crafty and does a great job at setting up his teammates. Gilyard is averaging 12 points and 5.5 assists per game, all while turning the ball over less than 2 times per game.

The rest of Richmond is pretty underwhelming. They have 6’4 guard Nick Sherod who is a senior but only logs about 17 minutes per game. He can shoot it alright but isn’t going to take over a game. Then there is 6’7 senior forward Nathan Cayo. Cayo is more of a scrappy, garbage man. He’s undersized, can’t really shoot, but is very aggressive on the blocks. He’s averaging 7 points and 4.6 boards.

This is going to be a good matchup. In fact, Ken Pom has Richmond winning this one by 1 point. However, looking at the matchup, we think NC State has a slight advantage thanks to their size at guard.

Cam Hayes will have a serious height advantage, and with the way he likes to use his pull-up jumper, he should be able to find success against Gilyard. Meanwhile, Terquavion Smith will be a pivotal player for the Pack. Richmond doesn’t have a quality scoring guard and will likely use 6’0 Isaiah Wilson to guard Smith. If Smith is able to build off his performances over the past 2 weeks, he should be able to eat up Wilson both on drives and by shooting over him (Smith is 6’4).

The keys here on keeping Burton in check and not allowing Golden to catch it too deep. Dowuona struggled against Trevion Williams (Purdue) who is a better version of Golden but has the same style of play. Richmond holds the advantage inside, but NC State has done a good job at flustering opposing guards, and Richmond doesn’t have a big backcourt to throw over the top of the press. So, NC State will have the backcourt advantage.

Richmond also gets a lot of their points with back cuts, or with drive and kicks. They aren’t a ball screening team, so NC State needs to have their heads on a swivel and be aware that their guy screening could quickly be diving to the hoop if they aren’t careful.

How does this play out? We’ll have to wait and see, but Keatts will likely have the same gameplan ready that he used against Purdue. Take away the 3 ball and let them win it inside if they can. Richmond shoots a very good 38% from long range and hits about 10 3s per game. So taking that percentage down and limiting their volume from long range will likely dictate a lot. Doing that means their guards need to keep Richmond’s guards out of the paint, requiring help side to slide over.

Lastly, an area that NC State will have an advantage is with their length (everyone on the court is 6’3 or above). This is a big one. Richmond passes a lot. In fact, not much of their offense comes off dribble drives or post play. However, they haven’t faced a team as long and athletic as the Pack. Passing against a team as long as State is tough. The windows close quickly and weaving in a pass becomes a lot riskier. But State needs to make sure to not overlay, as the Spiders will be quick to expose that with a back door cut. Watch…