Will they be back next season? An update on the NBA Draft stock of Seabron and Bates

Sure, there is still a lot of basketball to play this season, but it’s never to early to start trying to figure out what this NC State team is going to look like next year.

The biggest questions revolve around whether or not Dereon Seabron and Manny Bates decide to return. However, that is something we won’t know because Seabron and Bates likely don’t currently know for sure.

All (or most) of it depends on where they’re projected to go in the NBA Draft. Let’s take a look at where the latest projections have them going. We’ll focus on the largest Mock Draft sites that project out 2 rounds. None of the ones that have just the first round have either Seabron or Bates listed.

ESPN Mock Draft(formally DraftExpress.com)
Seabron- Undrafted
Bates- Undrafted

NBADraft.net
Seabron- #33 (third pick of 2nd round)
Bates- Undrafted

Tankathon.com
Seabron- Undrafted
Bates- Undrafted

Bleacher Report Mock Draft
Seabron- #28 (1st round)
Bates- Undrafted

USA Today Mock Draft
Seabron – #60 (last pick of 2nd round)
Bates – Undrafted

So far, that’s it. So what is the takeaway?

Well, Seabron only slots into the first round in the Bleacher Report mock. If he were to get selected there, he’d be guaranteed about $3 million over his first two years with options for year three and year four. If he were able to get those options picked up he’d be bringing in nearly $10 million.

If Seabron moves up the board at all or is a sure-fire first-rounder, he’s gone. No one should pass up that kind of guaranteed money.

However, if he slips to the second round things get interesting. If he’s picked with the #33 pick, like NBADraft.net suggests, then he’ll likely make a $2 million over his first two years with an option for his third year. He’d be likely to get that $2 million guaranteed at signing.

But if he slips to the #60 pick as USA Today suggests, then he’ll still get a contract worth around $2 million over two years, but he’ll only get about $500,000 guaranteed. That’s not as enticing.

There is no reason for Seabron, a sophomore, to leave if he’s going to project late in the 2nd round or go undrafted. He’s too good. If he were to come back another year, focus on improving his jumper, and move solidly into the first round, he’d be guaranteeing himself money that won’t just change his life, but his kid’s, kid’s, kid’s lives. But if I’m him and I’m getting the word that I’m a likely 1st rounder or early 2nd rounder, then bye-bye!

A lot depends on how this season ends for him. Lately, teams have been keying on him and really trying to limit his paint touches. It’s been working to an extent. He’s only had one double-double in the past 5 games, and he’s scored below his average of 19 the past 4 games (the last two he’s had 13 in each).

Seabron needs to get a respectable jump shot. He’s got decent form, he just needs an off-season of working with a shooting coach daily and he’ll be fine. The NBA will help him do that, but he can do it at NC State too. The question will be about math.

His ceiling with a jumper is potentially a lottery pick, and those guys are getting $20 million guaranteed. Does he bet on himself, stay another year at NC State, and showcase his new jump shot? Or does he cash in early and take the money that’s there for the taking.

If the question is between $20 million and $2 million guaranteed, I can see him leaving, taking that $2 million, and trying to earn the rest during his career. However, if the question is staying and trying to get that $20 million guaranteed, or leaving and likely taking $500,000 guaranteed (or nothing guaranteed if he goes undrafted), then I think the decision gets a LOT tougher, and I suspect he’d stay.

As for Bates, he isn’t listed anywhere, which, maybe I’m crazy, but it surprised me a little. Bates had some really good offensive games last season and everyone knows he’s probably the best shot-blocker in college basketball when healthy. But then again, the NBA has changed. The centers are either long, bouncy athletic freaks who can attack off the dribble, or more stationary bigs who can block shots, pass, and knock down jumpers. Bates is the latter, and I’m guessing his small sample size of showcasing that last year, coupled with his injury, isn’t exciting that many NBA execs right now.

Bates has been at every practice and at every game. He seems engaged and excited to root on his teammates. It’s almost as if he’s plotting on coming back next season. Who knows though. He could leave and try his hand at signing a free-agent contract, but if Bates comes back and showcases the offensive prowess Keatts was touting preseason, then he’s likely a second-round pick, and that is guaranteed millions if you move up the board enough.

At the end of the day, it’s a wait-and-see thing. These kids will have EVERYONE and their mother in their ears. Some will tell them to cash out, some will tell them to be patient and earn the big payday. I’d assume these draft boards will have more pull than any of them. So we wait and watch.