Kevin Keatts says NC State will play 100% zone defense this year. Is he lying?

Fresh off an offseason of roster re-building, Keatts said all the right things in his media day presser. He talked about taking full responsibility, he talked about tweaking his system, he talked about adapting to the new landscape and how it alters coaching.

Oh, he also talked about ditching his signature man-to-man and playing 100% zone this season.

“It was different last year. We had the leading shot blocker in the country that we thought was coming back, so our philosophy on how we tried to guard the ball was a little bit different because, in the past, we could really pressure, and even when we flushed guards to the hole, Manny was back there to clean it up. I think we’re going to play 100 percent zone this year. I’ve been looking at a lot of tape of Syracuse, and if you’re going to play a zone, Coach [Jim] Boeheim’s got a tremendous zone, so I think I’m going to play a lot of zone this year. Write that down. You don’t believe me, but write that down. I’m not saying that our zone is going to be as good as theirs, but…”

Now, Keatts said this with a smile on his face and at first, it seemed like he might be kidding. But his points were valid and to did tell the reporters to write it down…

So is Keatts baiting the media or could we see NC State turn into a zone team? 

Well, note that at the beginning of the question,

Keatts explained that last year’s defensive strategy was based on the fact that they had Manny Bates, one of the nation’s top shot blockers in the middle. This is 100% true and it’s something I’ve said over and over again last season. NC State’s system of ‘charting deflections’ wasn’t great with Manny Bates, but it was awful without him.

Keatts charts deflections and has made it known that it’s a state he pays attention to. And when you think about it, it’s not crazy. If you are looking for a stat that can capture how hard you’re playing, deflections is a good one. You don’t need to end up with the steal, but you need to get your hand on the ball to get a tally in the deflection column.

This works in high school and probably worked at UNCW, but at the ACC level, it hasn’t.

NC State has been very bad when it comes to opponent FG%. Last year they finished dead last, allowing teams to shoot over 47% from the field. It’s the second time in five years that they’ve finished last in that stat. The other time was Keatts’ first season in which they allowed teams to shoot over 46% from the floor.

In fact, since Kevin Keatts arrived, the Pack has finished no better than 11th in ‘Opponent FG %’. Meaning, other teams were pretty much scoring at will the past 5 seasons. However, on the same token, until last season, NC State has finished 5th or better every year in Team FG%, shooting 45% or better each season. 

Basketball is simple math. Score more than your opponent. If NC State wants to improve, it’s got to come on the defensive end. Their offense (aside from last season) has been top 5 in the ACC.

So something needs to change on defense. But what?

NC State is not undermanned. They have tall, long, athletic guards, they play hard, and most of them are pretty physical. It’s not a problem with your roster. It’s a problem with your system. Bates or no Bates, this team has consistently had trouble stopping other teams from scoring. So it’s time Keatts tweaked the system.

Just look at the roster moves. With the addition of DJ Burns and Mohorcic, Keatts making it clear that NC State is not relying on shot-blockers in the paint. If you missed it, I broke it all down right here in early May. Keatts has to make sure his guards stay down in a stance and in front of their man. No more out-of-control close-outs. No more jumping passes or overplaying for the deflection. NC State needs to focus on playing old-school, hand-in-your-face, sound defense.

Or, you could just play zone.

Now, the part about Keatts playing zone 100% of the time. That is a lie. But the more you think about it, the more you realize that zone might be their only option on some nights.

Keatts’s best option in the middle is going to be DJ Burns, and with today’s game, defenses are going to use ball screen to force a switch and get Burns in a mismatch all day long. Same goes for Mahorcic.

So how do you stop teams from take advantage of a group of less athletic centers? You play zone.

Look, we’ll see how it shakes out, because Keatts likes playing with pace, and one reason their offense has been so good during his 5 years is partly because of pace. Going zone will slow things down considerably, but it’s about finding that right balance where you tip the scales just enough to have an advantage.

I don’t know if NC State is going to be a ‘zone team’, but I do know that zone is going to be a real option for them this season and it wouldn’t surprise me if Keatt’s was hinting that out of the gates, the goal is for it to be used a lot more than us NC State fans are used to seeing.