Just how Improbable was #24 NC State’s Comeback Against Virginia Tech?

According to ESPN analytics, after Virginia Tech took a 21-3 lead with roughly 4 minutes left in the 3rd Quarter last night, #24 NC State had a 5.2% chance of winning the game.

Remind anyone of when the Wolfpack had a 0.1% chance of beating UNC in the final regular season game last year, with 2 minutes left on the clock?

The 18-point comeback was the 2nd largest comeback in the FBS in 2022.

This was the biggest comeback by NC State since Dave Doeren took over as Head Coach in 2013. This was the Wolfpack’s biggest comeback since overcoming a 27-point deficit against Maryland in 2011.

NC State is one of only two teams in college football to have more than one 2nd half comeback of 14 points or more this season (the Wolfpack trailed FSU 17-3 in 2nd half). The other team is Houston.