5 things NC State must do to beat UNC in Chapel Hill

NC State takes on UNC in Chapel Hill today at 5 pm. NC State is riding a 4 game winning streak and have won 7 of their last 8. Meanwhile, UNC has won 2 straight and 4 of their last 5. Both teams are 5-3 in the ACC. Here are our keys to the game…

1. Stop Armando Bacot
Easier said than done. Bacot is averaging 17.6 points and 11.2 rebounds per game. He’s the focal point of their offense and there is no question they are going to try to get him the ball on most possessions. And why wouldn’t they? NC State’s frontcourt is hobbled. DJ Burns is the only healthy big on the roster. Ebe Dowuona may play today, but he’s going to be a game-time decision. Even with Dowuona though, it’ll be tough. Burns has the beef to keep Bacot from getting too deep, but they are going to do everything they can to put Burns in foul trouble. And to be honest, Dowuona can’t stop Bacot (last year Bacot combined for 46 points and 31 boards vs Ebe in the two matchups), but having another body in the middle could keep Burns fresh and limit his fouls would be nice. That said, if Ebe is out and Burns gets in foul trouble then it’s as good as over for NC State if they play straight up. Keatts will have the option of going zone, but he hasn’t shown it at all this season, so who knows if he’ll open up his bag of tricks tonight. I’d assume that aside from going zone, State will throw a lot of double teams at Bacot and make UNC beat them from the perimeter.

2. Make things tough for RJ Davis
Davis is UNC’s best guard and lately he’s been playing great. Just look at his recent games and look at those shooting percentages.

Jarkell Joiner will be tasked with guarding him and I think that’s actually a pretty good matchup for State. Both guys are about 6’0, but Joiner is quicker and more athletic than Davis by a bit. The key for Joiner will be keeping tabs on Davis in transition since I don’t think Davis will be successful trying to isolate and go one on one against Jarkell.

3. Make Caleb Love implode
This one is going to be on Tarquavion Smith. Love has been a mess this season for UNC. He’s shooting 27% from long range, he’s taking all sorts of poor shots and it looks like he’s more interested in building up his stat sheet for NBA scouts than he is interested in making his team better. This is a big game for him, he’s going to want to come out and try to dominate his rival. Smith needs to make it tough for him early, get in his head, bait him into taking long, tough shots, and allow him to implode. When UNC is at their worst, Caleb Love is sabotaging them with selfish play. If he gets going early, State is in trouble, but if they can force him into mistakes, I believe it will compound and work against the Heels in a big way.

4. Don’t leave Pete Nance
NC State needs to be smart about how they double-team Bacot. If they force Gantt or Ross down, that leave Pete Nance open, and the 6’11 shooter is hitting 35% of his 3s this season. He hasn’t been consistent with a hand in his face, but when he’s open he hits. I’d expect to see Keatts want to bring Morsell down to dig on Bacot in the double and pester him from putting the ball on the floor. This also leaves open Leaky Black, who is the guy you want shooting for UNC. He is hitting at a higer clip this season (32%) but he’s still erratic from long range and has been way off the past 4 games.

5. Come out with a quiet confidence and expose the Heels true selves
If ever there is a year to feel confident about your chances in UNC, this is it. There are cracks in the program’s armor. UNC has a fake swagger that they get from the logo on their chest. As a team they know they don’t have things figured out. They know they aren’t clicking as a unit. But fake swagger is better than no swagger, because if that fake swagger gets some outside confirmation, it can turn into real swagger for a bit. What I’m saying is that, if UNC comes out hot and hits some shots, and NC State comes out cold, UNC could ride a wave to victory. They’ve done it a few times this season and emotions will be high in this rivalry game. That said, that fake swagger can disappear pretty fast and expose who they really are if things don’t go as planned. Some early mistakes, some bad shots, a few fouls on Bacot, and suddenly they’ll be exposed for what they are. A team that lacks chemistry doesn’t have a real identity.