OUR TAKE: On NC State’s season so-far, heading into matchup vs. #12 Tennessee

I kept telling you that this year would be a roller coaster. Now that you’re feeling these ups and downs, do you get what I was saying?

It started with a ton of questions about the roster makeup. That’s just a built-in thing going forward with the way transfers work now, and NIL in the equation.

Then there was the early season dominance. The Pack came out of the gate with 4 straight wins, their 4th being a win over a Vanderbilt team that was supposed to be decent.

Next, there was the dip. A loss to BYU, which at the time had people panicking. But I did tell you that BYU was going to end up a top 15 team, and right now they’re ranked 18th in the coaches poll and #3 in the NET rankings.

But the 20-point loss to Ole Miss gave the critics a little more ammo, and honestly, it was warranted criticism. The Pack’s biggest flaws were all exposed by the Rebels in that game. But again, is Ole Miss really that bad of a loss? They are sitting 1st in the SEC at 9-0, with wins over us, Memphis, UCF, and Temple.

Now we find ourselves back on the rise with our first ACC win (Boston College) and a couple of pseudo-cupcake wins. But next up is a huge test…#12 Tennessee.

So what’s next?

Well, before we answer that, let me give my thoughts on where we’re at…

– This team is SUPER deep.
Horne, Taylor, Morsell, and LJ Thomas have been putting in quality minutes at the guard spots. Parker, Diarra and now MJ Rice can hold down the forward spots pretty well, and Burns and Middlebrooks are giving good minutes at the 5. But the real key is the interchangeability of this team. Morsell can play the 2 or the 3. Parker can play the 3 or the 4. MJ rice can play the 3 or the 4. Middlebrooks can play the 4 or the 5. Keatts has so many options that sometimes I think he isn’t sure how much he wants to tinker and how much he wants to just get guys feeling comfortable.

– This team has no TRUE point guard.
While the team has a ton of talent, they just don’t have a real elite PG. O’Connell is the closest thing they have, but he’s been losing minutes with his inability to defend quicker guards or knock down open looks from outside. Without him, they are forced to use Horne, who is doing a great job of scoring from the PG slot, but when State needs to settle it down, control pace, and take away momentum from an opponent, we haven’t seen Horne be able to do that. That’s concerning. Keatts has tinkered more with LJ Thomas at the 1, and at this point he’s probably their best bet to really control pace a little bit, but even he gets sped up from time to time.

– MJ Rice could be the X-Factor.
His plus-minus hasn’t been great, but he’s filled up the highlight reels early on. He’s just getting back from an early season absence, so we can just chalk that up to getting back in the swing of things. However, if Rice can clean up some of his defensive mistakes, he could be the x-factor for the Pack. Parker is a good quick swing forward, and Diarra gives you good height, but there hasn’t really been a good physical presence with mobility at the 4 until Rice showed up. Now State can pretty much guard any 4 man on the planet, seeing as they have 3 very talented, very skillfully, and physically diverse guys.

– Keatts could be a little more strategic with his pressure. 
I think Keatts has put together a great team here, but I will go to my grave preaching the fact that he can and should call off the dogs every now and again on the defensive end. I think there are times for chaos and unending pressure, and then there’s time to give your guys a breather, give them a few plays off from guarding full-court, and allow them to just sit back and play position defense. I think the never-ending pressing and ball-hawking 30 feet from the basket causes a waste of energy, gets us in unnecessary foul trouble, and gets us out of position with guys trying to jump passes and press up on ACC level guards 30 feet away. Look, there is a time for it, and Keatts should buy into that 75% of the time, but give the guys a break every now and again when you feel the flow of the game allows it. It’ll keep these guys fresh to finish games off and it will limit the mental mistakes. But hey, I’m just some schmo with a keyboard, so take it or leave it.

– Jayden Taylor and DJ Horne are GREAT
Taylor is a freaking superstar on both ends of the floor. He’s leading the team at 15ppg, yet he’s taken the 4th most shots on  the team. He’s leading the team in steals and he’s shooting an insane 47.5% from 3-point range (and he’s 2nd on the team in attempts). Meanwhile, Horne is almost as good. He’s tied for 2nd on the team in scoring at 13.3ppg. He’s shooting 38% from 3, which is great seeing as he started the season 1-7 from long range. In fact, if you take away his only 2 bad shooting games, he’s also shooting 47.5% from 3.

– Burns is being Burns
Burns has been great. He’s averaging 13.3 ppg, but more importantly, his presence in the middle is opening up things for everyone. Teams are having to gameplan around Burns, sending double teams and hedging guys at him when he’s got the ball on the block. This is leading to a lot of open 3s and is a real reason why Horne and Taylor are hitting at such a high percentage.

– Morsell is providing the leadership
I love this version of Casey Morsell. He’s in attack mode and he’s in win-now mode. The senior is averaging 13ppg, hitting a bunch of big shots, but most importantly he’s providing the leadership for this basketball team. He’s the level-headed captain this team needs.

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Overall, I think by the time this season is over, you’ll see that this is a pretty darn good basketball team. I think like football, the early loss to Louisville had fans frustrated, but Louisville turned out to be giants. And same goes with Ole Miss and BYU. I think both of those teams are going to end up in the Top 25-30 (BYU will be top 15), and I think a lot of the early-season panic will be unwarranted in retrospect. But if you’re going to make the dance in March you need quality wins, and NC State has the chance for a big one come Saturday.