Wolferetti: Keatts critics can shove it. Stats show he’s on par with ACC legends at 4-year mark

The recent firing of Archie Miller by Indiana, coupled with the dull hum of the “Keatts ain’t the guy” sect of NC State fanbase, got me thinking.

What is a good start for an up-and-coming coach coming from a mid-major or lower and transitioning to the ACC?

First, let’s set the foundation for this debate. I’m talking about winning.

I’m not talking about your feelings on his approach, his strategy on offense, or your opinion on who has and has not developed a certain way under his leadership. WINNING and WINNING only.

With that agreed upon, I want you to think hard about the top coaches in the ACC. Now which of those coaches came from established, high-end D-1 programs and which were up and comers who came from the mid-major level or below?

Let’s focus on some of the biggest, most successful ACC coaches who have come from mid-major or had no head coaching experience before taking over an ACC program.

Mike Krzyzewski (Duke) – up and comer from Army
Dean Smith (UNC) – up and comer from within UNC
Tony Bennett (UVA) – up and comer from Washington State
Jim Valvano (NC State) – up and comer from Iona

There’s no doubt when you read this list of names you are looking at some of the most successful and most celebrated coaches in ACC history. But do you even know how they got there?

In your mind, do you envision K, Smith, Bennet, and V as guys who just walked in from smaller schools (or in Smith’s case, without any head coaching experience) and just flourished in the ACC?

If you think they did, then you don’t know your ACC history.

And if you don’t know your ACC history then what the h*ll are you Keatts critics basing your judgment on? Your eye test? Your educated opinion? At best you’re a YMCA superstar, at worst you’ve never played competitive basketball in your life. Yet somehow you’re sure it’s time for NC State to fire Kevin Keatts and move on?

What if I told you that Kevin Keatts has an equal or better winning percentage over his first 4 years than ALL of the aforementioned coaches. Better than Coach K. Better than Dean Smith. Better than Tony Bennett. And the same as NC State darling Jim Valvano.

Don’t believe me? Fine, but the stats don’t lie. Here are the number from these coaches’ first 4 seasons.

Mike Krzyzewski (Duke)
Up and comer from Army
62-57 record (52%)
1 NCAA Tournament
1 NIT

Dean Smith (UNC)
Up and Comer from within @ UNC
50-36 record (58%)
0 NCAA Tournaments*
0 NIT *

Tony Bennett (Virginia)
Up and comer from Washington State
76-53 record (59%)
1 NCAA Tournament
1 NIT

Jim Valvano (NC State)
Up and comer from Iona
81-47 record (63%)
2 NCAA Tournaments (one national championship)
1 NIT

Now let’s look at what Keatts has done over his first 4 seasons.

Kevin Keatts (NC State)
Up and comer from UNC-Wilmington
78-46 record (63%)
1 NCAA Tournament**
2 NIT

Of this group, only Valvano went to the NCAA tournament twice in his first 4 years and you could argue that Keatts would have been right there with him if COVID hadn’t ended the postseason early in 2020 (**). Bennet and K did it once and Dean Smith had zero postseason appearances (although he was coaching when qualifying for the  NCAA Tournament was very different*).

So Keatts critics, what do you have to say for yourself now?

I’m sure you’re going to go rifling through Wikipedia pages, looking for a set of underlying stats that semi-support your argument, or you’ll fall back on your opinion and dig your heels in. Or wait, you’ll start attacking the messenger and ignore the message? Or no, no, you’ll move the goalposts and start arguing that it’s ridiculous to compare Keatts to Coach K or Dean Smith! Or better. yet, you’re going to argue that things were different in the K, Dean Smith, Jimmy V era, but ignore the Bennett comparison and then decide to not look at guys like Josh Pastner or Buzz Williams who turned around their programs (Williams has since left for greener pastures)… Don’t worry, I won’t let you.

Josh Pastner (GT) 
From Memphis
65-67 record (49%)
ZERO NCAA Tournaments
1 NIT

Buzz Williams (VT)
From Marquette
74-60 (55%)
2 NCAA Tournaments
1 NIT

We can keep going, but, whether you’ll admit it or not, I think you get it.

This article isn’t me trying to tell you that Keatts is the next ACC legend. It’s me telling you that, like players, coaches have to transition to this league too and you can’t expect dominance in just 4 years if you’ve hired an up-and-comer. No matter who you are.  This article is me telling you that your criticism of the outcome and accomplishments of Kevin Keatts first four seasons are not based on facts. And it’s me telling you that any thoughts you have of Keatts underperforming to this point are based on a false premise.

Keatts didn’t walk into a program on the rise. He walked into one coming off two straight 13th place finishes, with an almost barren roster that had lost 72% of its scoring from the previous year and a potential recruiting scandal hanging over his head from the previous coach. And what has he done? Oh, only have a first 4 seasons that rival some of the biggest names in ACC history, that’s all.

So if you’re crying about our NIT bid or how we aren’t where you want to be in year 4, then save it for someone who cares (or someone who won’t do the research after you’re done with your hot take).

If you can’t see what he’s building here, I can’t help you. There is a difference between the type of player that NC State fans are used to and the ones Keatts is bringing in. No more flawed talent. No more big talent, low on-floor IQ. No more huge egos that think NC State owes THEM something. These Keatts-kids are high-talent, high-character, high-IQ, high work-ethic, low ego winners and they are going to be a part of a true culture shift that is beginning to happen at NC State as Keatts gets his recruits in.

Does that culture shift help him take that next jump? Either way, we’ll find out in a couple of years. However, those judging Keatts TODAY, and believing his production warrants the door, you just don’t know your history. In fact, if 4 years was the cutoff for judging an incoming up-and-comer, the ACC would be down a few legends.