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Kevin Keatts has been late too often this season and it’s costing NC State.

Published

2 years ago

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You know I hate to write this.

I’m a Keatts guy. I’ve written article after article defending him. I believe in the culture he’s building. I believe he’s a great motivator and that guys will run through walls for him. I believe, now that the fear of NCAA sanctions is gone, you’re finally going to see that he’s an elite recruiter. I believe he’s eventually going to make NC State into an ACC contender.

But sometimes you just gotta call it like it is.

I know, I know. Manny Bates is hurt. Ross is hurt. Morsell was down for a while. Cam Hayes is struggling, etc. The guy has excuses he can pull, but he doesn’t want to use those (respect that!), and neither should you.

NC State has 10 losses. 5 of those have been by 6 points or less. I’ll say it another way. 5 of their losses have been 2 possession games. Another one, against the best team in the country at the time, was tied at the end of regulation (or just a one-possession game).

That’s 6 games that came down to just a couple possessions. 6 very winnable games. And winnable games should be won.

This is why I’m pointing the finger at Kevin Keatts. It’s time for him to be accountable. I’ve sat back and watched this team and they are not a bad team. In fact, you have to first credit Keatts for getting this team to play so hungry and with so much ‘want-to’ before you can criticize him for his in-game mistakes.

I’m just going to be blunt. Keatts is coaching reactively and that alone is costing NC State a few points here and there, which this season, is the difference between a 9-10 team and a 14-5 team.

Let me give you some examples.

Late on moving Seabron to primary ball handler

I told you that to get this team to its full potential they needed to move Seabron to the point. Cam Hayes has struggled all year, the offense was stagnant and it was costing this team games. I didn’t want to write that article. You never want to write an article that recommends sitting a kid down. You never want to dig into the stats that show why that recommendation holds merit. These kids are 18 years old. I had the stats. I saw that it was necessary, and it’s likely a lot of you did too. But nothing was changing. State was dropping games. So I wrote the piece. The next game, Seabron was at point. And it’s not because of any article, it’s because it was becoming all too obvious.

But why did it take that long?

I started to note that maybe Cam needed a role change after the Nebraska game. We hinted at it again after the Louisville game. I noted it again after the Purdue loss. Finally, after the Miami game, I had seen enough. I put out a clear and concise argument for moving Hayes off the ball and moving Seabron to the point.

Look, hindsight is 20/20, but I’m going out of my way and putting my a#* on the line in these columns. If Hayes turns it around or Seabron falls apart as the PG, I look like an idiot. People lose trust in this site. This site makes less money. And the guys that run the site fire me. That’s why you don’t see many sportswriters write these types of articles. You can’t be wrong if you don’t have a strong opinion!

But why live like that? No one wants to read the same old regurgitated synopsis. They want to know how to fix a problem. Is there something there that the staff is missing? Is there a way that a few decisions or adjustments could fix our team?

Usually, the answer is no. Usually, the answer is you just don’t have the talent.

However, in this case, during this season, I think the answer is yes. And that, folks, is why I’m writing THIS article.

Late on increasing minutes for Ernest Ross

Let’s move on to the Ernest Ross example, which at this point is moot, but worth noting.

The kid is done for the year with an ankle fracture, just as he was about to break out.. But Ernest Ross had been showing signs of being ready to contribute. All while Dowuona and Gibson were building a track record of struggling against bigger, more athletic bigs. There was a noticeable difference in Ross during the Miami loss. I noted that and suggested it was time he start to see more playing time in my post-game recap.

However, he then didn’t see a single minute vs. Florida State, a 2 point loss in which Dowuona and Gibson combined for 39 minutes, zero points, 5 rebounds, and 2 blocks. Would it have made a difference? We’ll never know.

Then came the first Virginia Tech game where Ross played 15 minutes, had 4 points and 3 rebounds. I again hinted that it was time to start getting Ross more minutes and figured the staff was seeing the same thing. But again was dumbfounded as he only saw 4 minutes vs. Clemson (a game NC State lost by 5.) In that one, Dowuona and Gibson combined for 35 minutes, 2 points, 2 rebounds, and one block, all while allowing PJ Hall to drop 20 points, almost all from the paint.

What was going on? Why, while Ross was showing promise in his small amount of minutes, was he seeing games where he barely got off the bench? Was I seeing things? The stats were showing that Ross was being more productive, but they really weren’t convincing enough to come out and really question anything publically.

Then came the Louisville game. NC State won on the road in blowout fashion. I analyzed the game from a number of different perspectives and the most obvious difference was the impact Ross had on the game. He played a season-high 18 minutes, had 4 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 blocks. But the stats didn’t tell the whole story. The game was different when Ross was in. He was altering shots inside and this was forcing the Louisville guards to play a little more hesitant on their drives. It changed the game. I went back and manually tracked his minutes.

When Ernest Ross was on the floor (18 minutes). NC State won 47-21. 

When Ernest Ross was not on the floor (22 minutes). NC State lost 32-42.

This tracked with what we had started to see vs. Miami and what we saw in the Virginia Tech game. Just his presence was creating a net positive for NC State. This seemed clear 4 games prior, but you still had the 2 games in there where he barely played. What gives?

That’s why I put out the “The numbers don’t lie. It’s time to hand Ernest Ross the starting role.” Again, I didn’t want to write that piece and a lot of you criticized me calling for him as a starter. It seems risky to sit down your starting big and bench your other big for a freshman that was just emerging, but it had become too clear. The numbers were telling the story and low and behold, Keatts, in last night’s press conference said “If Ernest Ross was going to playing this one, he was going to fight for starter minutes.”

Keatts is making the right moves, he’s just making them too late. Your current bigs provided a clear and large data set. They weren’t producing. Ross was trending in the right direction, and you were losing games where he wasn’t seeing significant time.

Now, would major minutes for Ross have changed anything against Duke or Virginia Tech? We’ll never know since Ross was lost to an ankle injury right after that piece. But that question should have been answered during the FSU-VT-Clemson-Louisville stretch.

Now, NC State has lost two in a row. And I’m back to pointing out another trend.

Late on moving Casey Morsell back into the starting role

Casey Morsell is a guy I’ve loved since Keatts landed him as a transfer from UVA. After watching his high school highlights and his games at Virginia, it was clear to me that Morsell would be the team’s best defender and would likely become a pretty good scoring option in this offense. He started strong. Keatts was starting him and he was averaging 12 ppg, then he went down with an ankle injury.

I thought Keatts did a good job at trying to get him back in the mix, but he just didn’t look the same. He wasn’t defending at the same level and he couldn’t buy a shot. He wasn’t right, which eventually led Keatts to turn to Thomas Allen.

This worked out well as Allen went through a stretch of being red-hot. He had a great game vs. Miami, a good game vs FSU, an ok game vs. VT and then a good game against Clemson. He was helping NC State on offense, but they lost 3 of those 4 games and their defense was struggling.

During that Clemson game, Casey Morsell logged 22 minutes and seemed to look like his old self. He was defending well, and 2 of his 4 3s fell. I expected Morsell to start carving out his role again, but one game wasn’t enough to provide real confidence. The next game vs. Louisville Morsell only logged 12 minutes and didn’t score. Smith was hitting everything so he wasn’t coming out and Allen was 4-10 and had 4 assists with no turnovers. I get it, but Hayes was 1-7 and got 19 minutes (although he did have 4 assist). Morsell is your best defender and looked like he was starting to get things back on track, why wasn’t Keatts getting him more run? Still, NC State won and the offense was buzzing, so it glossed over any problems that were lingering under the surface.

The Duke game is where it became clear for me. Morsell logged just 11 minutes and only hit 1 of 4 shots (another 3), but he had 2 steals and a rebound in his time. But it was how he looked in that game that made things obvious. Morsell was locked in defensively. He was moving so well, badgering the Duke guards, and was the only guy keeping his man out of the paint. He was playing physical, and never gave up, barking at his team to play harder, even as the game had surely slipped away.

Meanwhile, Allen played 18 minutes, scored 5 points and had 3 assists. Hayes played 8 minutes, had 4 points, but turned it over 3 times. And Breon Pass got some run, logging 10 quality offensive minutes, scored 5 points, 2 assists, but was overmatched on defense (fouling 4 times in those 10 mins).

Morsell was obviously back to 100% physically and was easily the best on-ball defender that NC State had against Duke. He was also starting to hit some shots. So I wondered why he wasn’t beating these other guys out for minutes? He can provide the same amount of offense, he gives you good size, more physicality and he’s easily a huge upgrade on defense. In fact, when I looked, sure enough, Morsell was NC State’s 3rd best 3-point shooter on the season. It was time that Keatts stopped playing around and started committing more to Morsell. Why wasn’t it in the process of happening?

Well, I gave him benefit of the doubt. He was probably going to commit to him against Virginia Tech. I was so sure that Morsell was going to break out that it was one of the keys to the game I wrote up in my pregame piece…

Fast forward to last night’s game and what do you know. Morsell gets 26 minutes, scores 11 on 4-7 shooting, hits 3-4 3s, grabs 4 rebounds, and nets 3 steals (should have been 4 steals and 13 points but the refs called him for a phantom reach on his pick-pocket at half court).

Morsell broke out. It wasn’t a lucky guess. It was trending data and observations. It was clear Morsell was about to do this. So again, why did Kevin Keatts keep him out of the starting lineup? Did he not see this? Did his staff not present this?

What’s the big deal, you might ask? Morsell did get 26 minutes to Allen and Hayes’ combined 19.

Well, remember, NC State lost this game by 2 points. 5 of their 10 losses have been 2 possession games. Morsell didn’t get into this game until it was 13-0. When your season is riding on such a thin margin, you can’t keep missing like this. Every minute counts. Every substitution matters. You can’t keep being reactive. You need to see these trends and make changes before the situation forces you to.

NC State lost this Virginia Tech game by 2 points.

When Casey Morsell was on the floor (26 minutes). NC State won by 13.

When Casey Morsell was not on the floor (14 minutes). NC State lost by 15.

Would starting Morsell have won this game for you? Based on the trends and stats of this game, yeah, probably.

This isn’t just me saying these. Log onto Twitter. Look on Facebook. There are a handful of real basketball heads who are analyzing what we’re seeing and are pointing out these adjustments. Sure they’re small. A few minutes more for this guy, a few minutes less for that guy. But when you’re margins are this razor thin, they matter.

Look, I’m a Keatts guy. I believe in what he’s doing here. I want him here. I don’t think there should even be conversations about replacing him at any point in the near future… but for this issue, I gotta call it like it is. The players are responsible for their play, but the coaches are responsible for having the right guys on the court to make those plays. Keatts has made adjustments, he’s just simply been too slow to make them in a season where the difference between an NCAA Tournament appearance and going home after the ACC Tourny is just a possession or two per game.

That, folks, is another visible trend. One that, this time, we hope is dealt with proactively instead of reactively.

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A pasta eatin', Wolfpack lovin' loudmouth from Raleigh by way of New Jersey. Jimmy V and Chuck Amato fanboy. All opinions are my own and you're gonna hear'em.

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Papajohn
Papajohn
2 years ago

Interesting take. Not sure I agree with it as a whole, but I do agree change is good. Seabron – When asked about moving Seabron to primary ballhandler Keatts said that Seabron had been playing some PG since the beginning of the season, but Seabron had not been involving other players – as a PG should. He coached him up, and now Seabron is leading the team in assists and minutes at PG. Ross – Ross is a forward, not a center. So he has to learn a new position. Early in the season, Ross was terrible at defense. Even… Read more »

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Rev
Rev
2 years ago

Here is another, very difficult item that needs to be addressed. Keatts is a young coach. He prides himself in his relationship with his players. He wants to be loved. Afterglow was headed in the right direction when alluded to personnel issues at work. YOU CANT BE BUDDIES WITH YOUR PLAYERS (or employees). To now paraphrase what Joey is saying, “You shouldn’t hesitate so long before making decisions that look contrary to your loyalty to your players.”

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brad58
brad58
2 years ago

I think Kevin is also developing as a coach, just like the players. I think we need to remain patient as he checks most of the other boxes. I would like to see him demonstrate that he can sign some top ranked players consistently. This helps with winning because you don’t have guys not showing up from game to game.

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Afterglow
Afterglow
2 years ago
Reply to  brad58

I like this idea, especially in the proactive approach to games instead of a reactive approach. I work at a job where being proactive is the difference between dealing with choir boys or a reenactment of Lord of the Flies. Every little move throughout the day dictates how well things will go. And developing that Spidey sense is possible. But I wonder if as a coach, to develop that, Keatts needs to hire some guys that can see the forest for the trees for him, whether it’s a stat guy (doubtful), or assistant coaching changes, like an offensive and defensive… Read more »

Last edited 2 years ago by Afterglow
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Opinion

Pick and Roll Problems: Is it time to hand PG reins to LJ Thomas?

Published

3 months ago

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January 28, 2024

By

NC State likes to do two things on offense. They like to get the ball down into the post and use DJ Burns as a point man and they like to use high ball screens to get pick and roll action.

They primarily do this to create switches, but this is the ACC and entire rosters have been created to deal with switches. Meanwhile, the teams that don’t switch as much (Virginia), have been able to push the NC guards out enough to give their man enough time to recover and get back into position.

If you’re going to use high-screens (pick and rolls) to initiate your offense, then you HAVE TO make them worthwhile.

Let me explain…

The pick and roll is the hardest play to guard in basketball if you run it correctly, but you have the right personnel in place.

First off, the perfect personnel would be a big who is big, wide, and has a decent jumper, allowing him to either pick and roll or pick and pop. Meanwhile, the guard should be able to shoot it with consistency and also create rim pressure. If you have all of this and execute with precision, then the defense has no choice but to be on their heels.

Here is how it should work…

1) The big needs to set a nice, wide, physical screen.

2) THE GUARD SHOULD GO OFF THE BIG MANS SHOULDER and start forcing pressure downhill.

If you go off too wide and leave room for your defender to slip through, you’ve failed. You need to set up your defender with the dribble and then take an angle that runs him into the screen. This forces him to either go UNDER the screen (leaving you open for a shot), or over the screen, forcing the big man’s defender to stop the ball handler. If the screener rolls correctly, he’ll have a mismatch

If the big’s defender hedges out to contain, the guard should split the defense and knife to the lane. If the big’s defender sags to stop the drive, the guard should shoot.

Let’s look at the difference.

Here is LJ Thomas, the only NC State guard who constantly sets up his screens and puts downhill pressure on the defense off the high screen.

And here is DJ Horne, not going off the screener’s shoulder and taking it too wide, not putting any downhill pressure on the defense.

I’m not really blaming Horne here. Like I’ve said from day one, he’s a 2 guard by nature and these are intricacies that only come naturally to a true PG. This is why I constantly harp on this staff bringing in a TRUE PG that can thrive in the ‘Pick and Roll’.

Go back and watch the games, this poor use of ball screens has been a constant problem during the Keatts era and the foundational reason people keep saying ”

“The is no offense”… “We play AAU ball”… “We play selfish.”

None of those are true. There are a ton of schools that run the same actions we do and don’t look like they have offensive stagnation.

The real truth is, we fail to do the small things that make the pick and roll action valuable.

I’m sure the staff is teaching this (I hope), but sometimes it’s hard to change the entire basketball instinct of a lifelong scorer, to start playing like a true PG (reading angles, shifting speeds, creating space for others).

However, if you have guys who fail to do this, you have to correct it somehow, even if that means bench time for valuable players. It’s that important.

At the end of the day, this is something the coaches should be correcting as it is the difference between the offense action creating pressure on the defense, and the action being meaningless and forcing us into 1-on-1 iso situations.

So what’s the fix?

The best fix at this point has to be LJ Thomas getting more than 8 minutes per game.

He’s produced quality minutes all season long, and while he does give you a drop in defense (from Taylor/Horne) he has the instincts and skill set that need to be invested in. He’s not going to be a savior for NC State, but he moves the ball and is the only guard NC State has that has true PG instincts, understands how to attack the pick and roll (NC State’s most used action), and has enough skill to be dangerous scoring on 3 levels.

O’Connell does this but isn’t dangerous enough offensively. He’s shooting just 29% from 3 and he doesn’t create enough rim pressure, as he’s not really athletic enough to get in there and score amongst the trees.

This will be the hard part for Keatts. He wants to create massive defensive pressure all the time, but he’s doing so at the expense of offense and hoping the defense can create transition buckets. The problem is, the trade-off isn’t working. The defense is good, but it’s not creating enough offense to balance it out.

If NC State is going to turn this around it’s going to need Keatts to figure out a way to feature LJ Thomas as the point, while balancing the usage of Horne, Taylor, and Morsell at the 2/3. It’s really the only way I see this offense being able to kick into gear enough to make a late-season run.

But what do I know, right?

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NC State Basketball

WOLFERETTI: The unfiltered Kevin Keatts that NC State fans have been waiting for

Published

3 months ago

on

January 18, 2024

By

What is the key to every NC State fan’s heart?

It’s an unabashed, uncensored rant from their coach on being sick and tired of being treated as ‘not good enough’ or ‘not tough enough.’ These rants connect best after a big “I told you so” win.

It wasn’t long ago that Dave Doeren was on the hot seat with Pack fans. Half liked him, half didn’t. But then he started to realize that self-censoring wasn’t getting him anywhere. Politically correct takes weren’t really doing his job security any favors. So the real Dave Doeren showed his face.

He channeled the fanbase when he took a swing at UNC…

He shot back at the media when he called out Steve Smith by name for taking a cheap shot at NC State’s football program, calling State ‘just a basketball school’…

State fans loved every minute of it, dubbing this new unfiltered Dave Doeren ‘Salty Dave.’

The funny thing is, as soon as Dave removed the filter, so did his players. NC State players started sounding off a little bit about their frustration with being set up as ‘second fiddle’ in almost every national media narrative focused on the Triangle.

In a way, they started writing checks with their mouth, and when you have the gall to write those, you better be able to cash’em.

It seems that change in posture by Dave filtered through his program. He had recruited guys that had the same mindset as him, but now they were off the leash and able to show who they really were.

I think that is the difference between this year and years past. I think that’s a big reason you’re seeing NC State football begin to show signs of braking through nationally, and why you’re seeing players from all over the country signing up to play in Raleigh.

What you’re seeing within the NC State football program is the re-emergence of unfiltered sport. It’s celebrating competition and encouraging passion. This is why kids play the game.

Over the past 10-15 years it’s been watered down. Players have been forced to go through classes on dealing with the media and ‘saying the right thing.’ It’s dumbed-down rivalries, it’s stripped the personality from the game and it’s taken some excitement away.

Part of the entertainment of sports is the team element, where people with different backgrounds, different demeanors and different ways of communicating, come together to achieve a common goal. And for fans, we get to watch it all take shape and play out.

Maybe NIL has helped take the reigns off. Maybe kids being in charge of their own brands have helped bring us to this moment and maybe the addition of the transfer portal has taken some heat off coaches needing to always say the right things so they don’t rub a recruit’s parents the wrong way. I’m not sure, but suddenly we’re seeing a different side of players and coaches here at NC State.

We’ve had Elliot Avent for years, and he’s just a throwback who has been speaking his mind from the get-go. Baseball has been pretty successful as of late at NC State. Now, suddenly Salty Dave appears and Football starts seeing real success. And just two nights ago, Kevin Keatts finally got in on the action (meanwhile his team is 5-1 in conference and 13-4 overall)…

This is a Kevin Keatts we haven’t seen in the media. Keatts is usually smiling, joking, pretty PC most of the time. Tuesday night however, he seemingly had enough.

Keatts was tossed midway through the first half after straight-up losing it after a no-call on a fast break. He walked on to the court and laid into the official, getting a technical. But instead of heading back to the bench, he stayed on the court, making it clear that he was ready for them to send him to the locker room.

They did that, but NC State responded with a comeback win, and in his press conference, a masked Kevin Keatts said his piece. And judging by the responses from fans, it was exactly what they’d been wanting.

What made him snap?

Maybe it was the fact that he’s off to his best ACC start of his tenure, yet the media has barely said a thing and a faction of the fanbase still wants to go a different direction?

Maybe it was the mask?

Whatever the case, NC State fans loved it and want to see more of it. ‘Kind Kevin’ was nice for the first 6 years, but I think we can all agree that ‘Cranky Keatts’ is more on-brand for this fanbase.

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Opinion

LOVED IT, HATED IT: From NC State’s embarrassing 72-52 loss to Ole Miss

Published

5 months ago

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November 29, 2023

By

These late games are starting to wear on me. So forgive me if I’m not my usual rosey self today, but I’m not going to beat around the bush on this one. The Pack looked downright apathetic, undisciplined, and unprepared in their 72-52 loss at Ole Miss.
Let’s jump right in.

LOVED IT

Ben Middlebrooks showed NC State fans his value, notching 13 points and 12 boards.
It was nice to see someone come to play. Middlebrooks played a season-high 22 minutes, thanks in part to DJ Burns showing up soft for some reason against a 7’5″ twig that he’d usually bury underneath the basket (but I’ll get to that later). Middlebrooks matched the Ole Miss energy and physicality, and if the rest of the team had followed his lead, we would have had a ball game. For Middlebrooks, this was his coming out party for the Pack. NC State is going to need a bruiser this year at times, and Big Ben showed us he’s willing to be that guy.

LJ Thomas, nice to see you!
Tonight we saw signs that DJ Horne doesn’t have the intangibles of a true point guard (nor should he, he’s always been a SG) and Mike O’Connell is going to struggle all year against aggressive, athletic defenders (again, we’ll get to this later), so Keatts finally gave his sophomore PG some run.

LJ Thomas played his first meaningful minutes of the season, and while he didn’t light the world on fire, he provided some physicality and stability at the lead guard position. He played 22 minutes, scored 7 points, dished out 4 assists, and only turned the ball over 1 time (he also hit the only 3 he took).

It’s obvious this team is going to need a PG, so why LJ Thomas hasn’t been worked into the mix is beyond me. He’s in his second season, he has a good frame, decent vision, nice shot, and honestly has been pretty effective in the limited minutes he’s played in his career. How does anyone suppose the kid will reach his potential when he barely sees the floor? I know Keatts is in ‘win-now’ mode, but slowly working in Thomas when it’s clear you have no true PG is probably the real ‘win-now’ move if we’re being honest.

HATED IT

(Kids, close your eyes this isn’t going to be pretty)

Ok, I’ll admit it. It’s time to start pointing the finger at Kevin Keatts
I’ve been a Keatts apologist for a long time. I like Kevin Keatts. I think he gets player to buy-in. I think he’s a good talent evaluator. I think his teams are always in shape and always giving a ton of effort. I think NC State could be in a much worse spot coaching-wise, but we’re 7 years in now and there are a few patterns that we’ve all seen that we’ve hoped would work themselves out. However, it’s looking like that’s not happening yet again.

Yes, this was one game, but I can’t make excuses for this any longer. Keatts teams lack discipline in a lot of places.

Sure, they play hard as heck, but they are constantly gambling on passes, trying to get deflections and they are always out of position on defense. Watch NC State play defense against a disciplined team that moves the basketball and understands spacing. They always look like they’re playing catch-up. They’re always a step late, having to rely on constant communication for switches, constantly late on rotations, and always in panic mode on the close-outs. Keatts may look at that type of ‘chaos’ on defense as a feature, not a bug. But it’s been 7 years and guys, it’s a bug. A well-laid-out and executed game plan against NC State almost always throws us for a loop.

Look, this type of defense isn’t bad. In fact, there are a lot of matchups where this defense is going to rattle your opponent, fluster opposing guards and win you basketball games. But there are also matchups where you can learn pretty fast that this type of defense is going to get chewed up by your opponent, and you HAVE to read that early before things get out of hand. Your team has got to be disciplined enough to be able to turn it off and on over the course of a basketball game.

Meanwhile, when real defensive pressure is applied to NC State, Keatts’ teams never seem to step back, collect themselves, and focus on running their offense. Instead, they revert to one-on-one isolation.

It happens EVERY SINGLE YEAR and it doesn’t seem like anyone does anything to stop it. That is not how you consistently win basketball games. It happened with Al Freeman in Keatts’ first season, it happened with CJ Bryce, Torin Dorn, Terquavion Smith, and Jarkel Joiner. Every year there is a guy that Keatts’ relies on to bail out his team with isolation and one-on-one basketball. ENOUGH!

The State fans blame the players for being selfish, but the pattern suggests it’s not the players, but the lack of an offensive system they trust. They just want to win so they’re doing it the best way they know how. And with the way the last 3 halves have gone, it looks like Casey Morsell is going to be forced into this year’s volume-scoring iso guy…and that’s not how you get the best out of Casey Morsell.

Hey NC State, your lack of a point guard is showing!
We all knew when NC State didn’t land a PG in the portal that things might be dicey this season. Sure, DJ Horne can bring the ball up the floor and has a real nice handle, and while you did land Mike O’Connell and brought back Breon Pass and LJ Thomas, none of those guys are ready to be an elite PG at the ACC level.

Horne is a scoring guard (style-wise), O’Connell is a PG, but doesn’t have the athleticism needed to be the main guy for a top tier ACC team. Breon Pass, despite his size, is more of a scoring guard (style-wise), and LJ Thomas looks like a scoring guard but is actually the one guy who resembles a PG out there (however, he certainly lacks experience).

Last night, NC State got punched in the mouth, right out of the gate. And instead of collecting themselves and steadying themselves, they short-circuited, panicked, and fell apart.

If you think that a PG is only good for dribbling up the floor or for piling up assists, then that right there will be. your fatal flaw as you put together a basketball team. A PG’s main role is pace control, emotional stability in the face of adversity and situational awareness. People put all those things in the bucket and call it “leadership” or “coach on the floor”, but it’s a set of skills that make an elite PG, which in turn, can help make an elite basketball team.

NC State doesn’t have that. They haven’t had nor prioritized a player like that in years, and that is one reason you see games like this take place year after year.

What was up with DJ Burns?
DJ is one of my favorite State players in years, but no one gets a pass in these articles. Burns turned in one of those rare performances we haven’t seen since his outing against Creighton in the NCAA tournament, which coincidentally was against another skilled 7-footer.

I know DJ is undersized in matchups like this, but the 7’5″ Jamarion Sharpe is kind of a twig. Burns at times buried him under the hoop, but missed the shot. I’m not really sure what was going on here. Burns was in pass-first mode, in a matchup I felt he would try to exploit.

I was expecting NC State to clear out, and let Burns back down Sharpe (Burns has a 40lb advantage). Once he’s down deep enough, I felt like he’d have to throw a few pump fakes and get creative due to Sharpe’s reach. Burns is a great passer, and certainly more dangerous when he gets deep since he has more options, but it just seemed like DJ didn’t want any part of Sharpe last night. This team is going to need the offense to run through him if they’re going to be successful. Again, void of a PG, Burns is going to have to play that role for this squad and last night he didn’t.

Diarra, our 6’10” stretch-forward, only getting 4 minutes? 
I know Diarra has been getting out of position a lot on defense and it’s bothering Keatts, but the guy is 6’10”, probably your best rebounder and you really needed to match Ole Miss’ ability to be big, agile, and physical. I was hoping to see a front court of Middlebrooks and Diarra for a bit, but never really got that chance.

Now look, Dennis Parker Jr. deserved the start. The kid has been playing great, but in the 2nd half of the BYU game and all last night, he looked a little shaken. And that’s fine for a Freshman, but 16 minutes, no points, and only 2 boards from your 4 man just ain’t gonna cut it. Especially, when your former starting PF logs just 4 minutes.

I know Keatts probably saw something different, but you were down 20 most of the night. I think a little more tinkering with your 6’10” guy might have been worth a shot, unless he’s still hurt, in which case all of this is moot.

——

We could keep going here and dive into the details, but I think we’re better off moving on. This was only one game, and I’m going to get criticized for overreacting, but that’s what this column is all about. And to be honest, I don’t feel like I’m overreacting. I feel like I’m witnessing this team, with all new players, fall into the same pattern that all of Keatts’ teams have fallen into over the years and I’m terrified of that. I want Keatts to succeed. I think he has the coaching intangibles that could make him a very successful coach here at NC State, but things need to change. Foundational, core principles need to be adjusted or we’ll see another NC State team that is streaky, matchup-reliant, and limps into the post-season.

I’d love to be proven wrong. I’d love for this team and this coach to make me eat these words. But these patterns I’ve glossed over or ignored over the Keatts era aren’t going away and it’s making me pretty nervous.

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Opinion

Wolferetti: Will the new NIL landscape hurt NC State’s ability to upgrade their facilities & hire new coaches? Does it matter?

Published

5 months ago

on

November 27, 2023

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I’m going to go ahead and address the elephant in the room.

NIL is causing a problem for schools like NC State.

There’s only so much money to go around and donors are having to choose between donating to their alma mater for facility upgrades, coach salaries, and scholarships, or donating to these NIL Collectives which pool money to eventually pay players in hopes they can be convinced to come or stay.

This is the reality now. The time for being an old man and arguing against the concept is over. It’s time to figure out how to operate in this landscape.

Let’s take KC Concepcion for example.

He’s the best freshman receiver NC State has had in a long, long time. Heck, he’s the best receiver NC State has had in a long, long time. But this isn’t 2018 anymore. Concepcion is about to have some options. He’s going to have schools knocking down his door, offering him life-changing money to switch schools. If that’s the path he wants to take, he won’t even have to sit out a year. So how does a school like NC State compete?

Well, first off, they need to match the money. It’s a bidding game in almost every case. So, they need to pay him close to the going rate. And how will they get that money? Well, they’re going to be relying on donors…the same donors that NC State’s Athletic Department has been relying on for coaches salaries and facility upgrades for years and years.

But the economy isn’t exactly thriving right now, and these donors don’t seem all that willing to simply keep their university donations AND add on NIL donations, so there is a choice to be made.

Just yesterday, Dave Doeren took some (unwarranted) heat from the editor-in-chief of ‘The Athletic’ for asking donors to pitch into the NIL collectives before the portal opens this week.

But what do you want the guy to do? His job depends on winning, and the only way to win is to get-and-keep good players, and today, the only way to get-and-keep good players is to pay them.

So without many other options, that is what NC State Football is going to be forced to do.

That said, I personally know a few big donors who aren’t too thrilled with having to weigh these options. One of them refuses to donate to the NIL because he doesn’t believe players should be paid. While the other is pulling his funding from the university and sending money solely to NIL Collectives.

The latter is what NC State is bracing for behind the scenes.

If NIL continues as it is going, the player asks are only going to rise and to stay competitive, donors are going to have to foot that bill. Like I said, there is only so much money floating around in Raleigh. For schools like Texas or UK this might not be an issue, but if we’re going to be honest, in Raleigh (and most of the ACC) it will be.

Meanwhile, NC State needs a major upgrade to the Murphy Center and its weight room. It was a state-of-the-art facility when it was built, but it’s 20 years old now and needs an upgrade. At the same time, the university has been dying to get enough funding to extend the upper decks at Carter-Finley and close in the horseshoe.

And while the football team’s practice facility is just about 9 years old, it’s not long until they’ll want a pro-level, all-encompassing facility, like the mega-programs are building. Here is what Texas is about to build…

Once you understand this scenario played out over years and years, you start to understand why it looks like these schools and conferences are panicking. They need to find a reliable source of money going forward, and right now the focus is to increase these TV deals and milk every cent they can out of them (that TV deal money can’t be touched by NIL).

But how sustainable is that? I don’t know, and by the looks of the way it’s playing out across the NCAA, they don’t know either.

So either the NCAA gets some kind of control of the NIL situation, or schools like NC State are going to have to get creative.

And that might mean a host of things, but in the end, they’re going to have to start operating a lot more like a true business, leveraging assets and land that they may have, to create revenue that, right now, they aren’t accessing.

Meanwhile, us fans, we’re going to have to understand this, because decisions will have to be made that change things from the stats-quo we’ve grown accustomed to over the years.

It’s adapt or die right now in college sports and schools like NC State are the ones who are walking a razor-thin line. There is a way for them to flourish, take advantage of the system, and come out on top. But because there is not an unlimited pool of money here, there is also a way for them to mismanage this situation and fail.

The coming years will go a long way in letting us know which side of that coin NC State ends up on. But for the time being, there isn’t a clear message coming from the university on where a donor with a fixed budget should allocate their money.

The best we have right now is the football coach, Dave Doeren, letting the fans know that the NIL Collectives needs it the most right now, and fans and donors seem to be listening.

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