NC State likes to do two things on offense. They like to get the ball down into the post and use DJ Burns as a point man and they like to use high ball screens to get pick and roll action.

They primarily do this to create switches, but this is the ACC and entire rosters have been created to deal with switches. Meanwhile, the teams that don’t switch as much (Virginia), have been able to push the NC guards out enough to give their man enough time to recover and get back into position.

If you’re going to use high-screens (pick and rolls) to initiate your offense, then you HAVE TO make them worthwhile.

Let me explain…

The pick and roll is the hardest play to guard in basketball if you run it correctly, but you have the right personnel in place.

First off, the perfect personnel would be a big who is big, wide, and has a decent jumper, allowing him to either pick and roll or pick and pop. Meanwhile, the guard should be able to shoot it with consistency and also create rim pressure. If you have all of this and execute with precision, then the defense has no choice but to be on their heels.

Here is how it should work…

1) The big needs to set a nice, wide, physical screen.

2) THE GUARD SHOULD GO OFF THE BIG MANS SHOULDER and start forcing pressure downhill.

If you go off too wide and leave room for your defender to slip through, you’ve failed. You need to set up your defender with the dribble and then take an angle that runs him into the screen. This forces him to either go UNDER the screen (leaving you open for a shot), or over the screen, forcing the big man’s defender to stop the ball handler. If the screener rolls correctly, he’ll have a mismatch

If the big’s defender hedges out to contain, the guard should split the defense and knife to the lane. If the big’s defender sags to stop the drive, the guard should shoot.

Let’s look at the difference.

Here is LJ Thomas, the only NC State guard who constantly sets up his screens and puts downhill pressure on the defense off the high screen.

And here is DJ Horne, not going off the screener’s shoulder and taking it too wide, not putting any downhill pressure on the defense.

I’m not really blaming Horne here. Like I’ve said from day one, he’s a 2 guard by nature and these are intricacies that only come naturally to a true PG. This is why I constantly harp on this staff bringing in a TRUE PG that can thrive in the ‘Pick and Roll’.

Go back and watch the games, this poor use of ball screens has been a constant problem during the Keatts era and the foundational reason people keep saying ”

“The is no offense”… “We play AAU ball”… “We play selfish.”

None of those are true. There are a ton of schools that run the same actions we do and don’t look like they have offensive stagnation.

The real truth is, we fail to do the small things that make the pick and roll action valuable.

I’m sure the staff is teaching this (I hope), but sometimes it’s hard to change the entire basketball instinct of a lifelong scorer, to start playing like a true PG (reading angles, shifting speeds, creating space for others).

However, if you have guys who fail to do this, you have to correct it somehow, even if that means bench time for valuable players. It’s that important.

At the end of the day, this is something the coaches should be correcting as it is the difference between the offense action creating pressure on the defense, and the action being meaningless and forcing us into 1-on-1 iso situations.

So what’s the fix?

The best fix at this point has to be LJ Thomas getting more than 8 minutes per game.

He’s produced quality minutes all season long, and while he does give you a drop in defense (from Taylor/Horne) he has the instincts and skill set that need to be invested in. He’s not going to be a savior for NC State, but he moves the ball and is the only guard NC State has that has true PG instincts, understands how to attack the pick and roll (NC State’s most used action), and has enough skill to be dangerous scoring on 3 levels.

O’Connell does this but isn’t dangerous enough offensively. He’s shooting just 29% from 3 and he doesn’t create enough rim pressure, as he’s not really athletic enough to get in there and score amongst the trees.

This will be the hard part for Keatts. He wants to create massive defensive pressure all the time, but he’s doing so at the expense of offense and hoping the defense can create transition buckets. The problem is, the trade-off isn’t working. The defense is good, but it’s not creating enough offense to balance it out.

If NC State is going to turn this around it’s going to need Keatts to figure out a way to feature LJ Thomas as the point, while balancing the usage of Horne, Taylor, and Morsell at the 2/3. It’s really the only way I see this offense being able to kick into gear enough to make a late-season run.

But what do I know, right?

What is the key to every NC State fan’s heart?

It’s an unabashed, uncensored rant from their coach on being sick and tired of being treated as ‘not good enough’ or ‘not tough enough.’ These rants connect best after a big “I told you so” win.

It wasn’t long ago that Dave Doeren was on the hot seat with Pack fans. Half liked him, half didn’t. But then he started to realize that self-censoring wasn’t getting him anywhere. Politically correct takes weren’t really doing his job security any favors. So the real Dave Doeren showed his face.

He channeled the fanbase when he took a swing at UNC…

He shot back at the media when he called out Steve Smith by name for taking a cheap shot at NC State’s football program, calling State ‘just a basketball school’…

State fans loved every minute of it, dubbing this new unfiltered Dave Doeren ‘Salty Dave.’

The funny thing is, as soon as Dave removed the filter, so did his players. NC State players started sounding off a little bit about their frustration with being set up as ‘second fiddle’ in almost every national media narrative focused on the Triangle.

In a way, they started writing checks with their mouth, and when you have the gall to write those, you better be able to cash’em.

It seems that change in posture by Dave filtered through his program. He had recruited guys that had the same mindset as him, but now they were off the leash and able to show who they really were.

I think that is the difference between this year and years past. I think that’s a big reason you’re seeing NC State football begin to show signs of braking through nationally, and why you’re seeing players from all over the country signing up to play in Raleigh.

What you’re seeing within the NC State football program is the re-emergence of unfiltered sport. It’s celebrating competition and encouraging passion. This is why kids play the game.

Over the past 10-15 years it’s been watered down. Players have been forced to go through classes on dealing with the media and ‘saying the right thing.’ It’s dumbed-down rivalries, it’s stripped the personality from the game and it’s taken some excitement away.

Part of the entertainment of sports is the team element, where people with different backgrounds, different demeanors and different ways of communicating, come together to achieve a common goal. And for fans, we get to watch it all take shape and play out.

Maybe NIL has helped take the reigns off. Maybe kids being in charge of their own brands have helped bring us to this moment and maybe the addition of the transfer portal has taken some heat off coaches needing to always say the right things so they don’t rub a recruit’s parents the wrong way. I’m not sure, but suddenly we’re seeing a different side of players and coaches here at NC State.

We’ve had Elliot Avent for years, and he’s just a throwback who has been speaking his mind from the get-go. Baseball has been pretty successful as of late at NC State. Now, suddenly Salty Dave appears and Football starts seeing real success. And just two nights ago, Kevin Keatts finally got in on the action (meanwhile his team is 5-1 in conference and 13-4 overall)…

“I’m tired of this shit. I’m tired of people talking about how we ain’t tough enough.”

Kevin Keatts won’t be hitting up Dave Doeren’s bourbon stash tonight but he’s just as fired up after #NCState‘s comeback win over Wake Forest. pic.twitter.com/nil4GGhTDl

— Jordan Crammer (@JordanCrammer) January 17, 2024

This is a Kevin Keatts we haven’t seen in the media. Keatts is usually smiling, joking, pretty PC most of the time. Tuesday night however, he seemingly had enough.

Keatts was tossed midway through the first half after straight-up losing it after a no-call on a fast break. He walked on to the court and laid into the official, getting a technical. But instead of heading back to the bench, he stayed on the court, making it clear that he was ready for them to send him to the locker room.

They did that, but NC State responded with a comeback win, and in his press conference, a masked Kevin Keatts said his piece. And judging by the responses from fans, it was exactly what they’d been wanting.

What made him snap?

Maybe it was the fact that he’s off to his best ACC start of his tenure, yet the media has barely said a thing and a faction of the fanbase still wants to go a different direction?

Maybe it was the mask?

Whatever the case, NC State fans loved it and want to see more of it. ‘Kind Kevin’ was nice for the first 6 years, but I think we can all agree that ‘Cranky Keatts’ is more on-brand for this fanbase.

I’m going to go ahead and address the elephant in the room.

NIL is causing a problem for schools like NC State.

There’s only so much money to go around and donors are having to choose between donating to their alma mater for facility upgrades, coach salaries, and scholarships, or donating to these NIL Collectives which pool money to eventually pay players in hopes they can be convinced to come or stay.

This is the reality now. The time for being an old man and arguing against the concept is over. It’s time to figure out how to operate in this landscape.

Let’s take KC Concepcion for example.

He’s the best freshman receiver NC State has had in a long, long time. Heck, he’s the best receiver NC State has had in a long, long time. But this isn’t 2018 anymore. Concepcion is about to have some options. He’s going to have schools knocking down his door, offering him life-changing money to switch schools. If that’s the path he wants to take, he won’t even have to sit out a year. So how does a school like NC State compete?

Well, first off, they need to match the money. It’s a bidding game in almost every case. So, they need to pay him close to the going rate. And how will they get that money? Well, they’re going to be relying on donors…the same donors that NC State’s Athletic Department has been relying on for coaches salaries and facility upgrades for years and years.

But the economy isn’t exactly thriving right now, and these donors don’t seem all that willing to simply keep their university donations AND add on NIL donations, so there is a choice to be made.

Just yesterday, Dave Doeren took some (unwarranted) heat from the editor-in-chief of ‘The Athletic’ for asking donors to pitch into the NIL collectives before the portal opens this week.

But what do you want the guy to do? His job depends on winning, and the only way to win is to get-and-keep good players, and today, the only way to get-and-keep good players is to pay them.

So without many other options, that is what NC State Football is going to be forced to do.

That said, I personally know a few big donors who aren’t too thrilled with having to weigh these options. One of them refuses to donate to the NIL because he doesn’t believe players should be paid. While the other is pulling his funding from the university and sending money solely to NIL Collectives.

The latter is what NC State is bracing for behind the scenes.

If NIL continues as it is going, the player asks are only going to rise and to stay competitive, donors are going to have to foot that bill. Like I said, there is only so much money floating around in Raleigh. For schools like Texas or UK this might not be an issue, but if we’re going to be honest, in Raleigh (and most of the ACC) it will be.

Meanwhile, NC State needs a major upgrade to the Murphy Center and its weight room. It was a state-of-the-art facility when it was built, but it’s 20 years old now and needs an upgrade. At the same time, the university has been dying to get enough funding to extend the upper decks at Carter-Finley and close in the horseshoe.

And while the football team’s practice facility is just about 9 years old, it’s not long until they’ll want a pro-level, all-encompassing facility, like the mega-programs are building. Here is what Texas is about to build…

Once you understand this scenario played out over years and years, you start to understand why it looks like these schools and conferences are panicking. They need to find a reliable source of money going forward, and right now the focus is to increase these TV deals and milk every cent they can out of them (that TV deal money can’t be touched by NIL).

But how sustainable is that? I don’t know, and by the looks of the way it’s playing out across the NCAA, they don’t know either.

So either the NCAA gets some kind of control of the NIL situation, or schools like NC State are going to have to get creative.

And that might mean a host of things, but in the end, they’re going to have to start operating a lot more like a true business, leveraging assets and land that they may have, to create revenue that, right now, they aren’t accessing.

Meanwhile, us fans, we’re going to have to understand this, because decisions will have to be made that change things from the stats-quo we’ve grown accustomed to over the years.

It’s adapt or die right now in college sports and schools like NC State are the ones who are walking a razor-thin line. There is a way for them to flourish, take advantage of the system, and come out on top. But because there is not an unlimited pool of money here, there is also a way for them to mismanage this situation and fail.

The coming years will go a long way in letting us know which side of that coin NC State ends up on. But for the time being, there isn’t a clear message coming from the university on where a donor with a fixed budget should allocate their money.

The best we have right now is the football coach, Dave Doeren, letting the fans know that the NIL Collectives needs it the most right now, and fans and donors seem to be listening.

The past 24 hours we have had more NEW members / donors to @packofwolvesnil than any other day in my (almost) 12 months here.

Let’s keep up the momentum!!
🐺 🐺 🐺

Tax deductible donations: https://t.co/1ZyrZcuXqj

Membership options: https://t.co/y180PdHT8W

GO PACK! 🐺🐺 pic.twitter.com/3bJpZqUlMM

— Chris Vurnakes (@Vurnakes12) November 27, 2023

NC State’s season is over, but you don’t have to wait until November to get excited about basketball again. With the new NIL rules and the transfer portal open, college basketball’s off-season is a season all in itself. Let’s just right in and talk about what I see NC State focusing on this offseason (Note that Jarkell Joiner is definitely gone, having used up all his eligability.

DJ Burns: I predict the big man comes back. He’s hinted at wanting to come back, I’m sure the NIL money is going to be nice, and he’s likely going to be NC State’s go-to guy on offense. If Burns wants to play in the NBA one day he needs to come into next season below 300 lbs. I think that’s important because he’s got a skill set that can make him some money to play professionally, but he needs to expand his range and get a little more nimble in his face-up game. He’s quick and has good footwork, but he’s lugging around 30 extra pounds with every move he makes. If Burns can shed fat and build some serious muscle this offseason, he’ll have the opportunity to be an ACC POY candidate.

Dusan Mahorcic: The big man missed most of this season (over 70%) with a knee injury, which means he’s very likely going to be awarded a medical waiver to play another season. I’m hearing that Mahorcic is interested in playing another season at NC State, but his knee has yet to bounce back to playing shape. I think this is something to monitor this off-season. If he’s healthy, it seems like he’ll be back, logging some minutes with or behind Burns. If he’s not 100% by season time then I’m not sure how the staff will play it. I think it’s safe to say that Mahorcic’s best bet is trying to play next year at NC State, and if he can get back to full strength, I think that happens one way or another.

Casey Morsell: Morsell has another season and I’m hearing different things about Morsell. Most expect him to return, get a nice NIL payout and try to have a successful season where he’s a little more involved offensively. That said, he wants to showcase that he can be a much more capable scorer and with Smith and Joiner dominating the shots this year, he only got a small taste of that. I think Morsell comes back, however, I think before he makes his final decision he wants to see how the roster plays out. Say Terquavion Smith comes back and Keatts adds another ball-dominant PG. There’s a chance Morsell stays, but I’d actually guess that he looks elsewhere, be it transfer or pro ball. I don’t think Morsell wants to come back and be the 3rd option again. I think he wants to come back and be option 2A or 2B and I think he can. Morsell is a key piece to this team’s success. An elite defender who can shoot 40%+ from long range is very, very hard to find and it would be smart for Keatts to focus on bringing in a PG who is more interested in getting his teammates involved. That said, I am nearly certain Morsell will stay another season.

Terquavion Smith: I’m 85% sure Smith is gone. The way he ended the season is fresh in the minds of NBA scouts. He showcased what he’s capable of and in a class with pretty weak guard play, Smith is one of the best all-around 2 guards out there. Now, sure, there is a chance that scouts drop him down to 2nd round status because of his lower shooting percentages this year, and it might make Smith question whether coming back and improving on those gets him the big bonus of the first round picks, but I’m not going to hold my breath. Smith escaped having his career ended with that foul against UNC, and he improved on almost all his numbers outside of shooting percentage. I think his shooting and scoring is the least of scout’s worries, so I think he’ll be a late 1st rounder and I think he’ll be gone. If I was him, I’d be cashing in while I could for sure.

Jack Clark: I’d assume Jack Clark comes back, but you never know. He’s got a lot to prove and with the injuries this season, he never really got into a rhythm. I also think one more year to hone his 3 would be good for him. He’s got the skill set to really be a factor in a Keatts offense, and I think he’d play a key role if he returned. That said, I’ve heard that of some teams (one in particular) that Clark might leave for. I’m taking that with a grain of salt because Clark has a secure starting role next season. But crazier things have happened, that said, when all is said and done, I’d expect Clark back.

Greg Gantt: Gantt was a quality add by Keatts and this year we finally got to see how important he was. He was the muscle at the 4. Clark, while I really like him, can get soft at times. Gantt was a great matchup for opposing 4s who were more physical. In the ACC you need both of these guys. Sometimes you get a versatile 4 and sometimes you get a beefy, strong 4. Gantt allowed NC State to at least compete with the beefy 4s. However, I’m not so sure Keatts won’t go out and get a big, strong 4 with a little more offense than Gantt. With Gantt’s injury past and coming off a knee injury, I don’t think the staff will leave it up to chance. I’m not sure what happens to Gantt. I think he’ll probably return, get healthy, and try to work his way into minutes next season regardless of who Keatts brings in.

Ernest Ross: I think Ross’ future depends mostly on who Keatts brings in with the portal. If he does go out and bring in another 4 man and Clark stays, then I’d assume the logjam entices Ross or Gantt or Ross and Gantt to look around at other options. However, if Keatts feels secure with the frontcourt and focuses more on guards (or if Clark or Gantt were to leave) then I’d bet on Ross staying. Ross has an upside that we haven’t seen yet. You saw it in spurts this year. When his confidence gets going, he becomes a real factor. Is that sustainable for him? I don’t know, I hope. But I’d say Ross is inclined to stay, but I’ll have to see what plays out at the log jammed 4 spot.

Breon Pass / LJ Thomas: There is no doubt that Keatts is going to be looking for guards in the portal this season. Pass provided some good minutes late, and honestly, LJ Thomas impressed nearly every time he was on the floor. But Pass hasn’t really shown that he can be a lead guard at the ACC level just yet and I’m afraid that if Keatts brings in a seasoned veteran at the point, Pass won’t be all that interested in playing backup during his junior year. As for Thomas, it’s interesting to me that Keatts didn’t give him more opportunities. He showed the ability to score it and was a pretty physical defender. I’m really hoping Thomas sticks around for another season, as I can see him being a factor at this level with more minutes under his belt. Thomas is a sophomore, so I think he’ll be more apt to play a role coming off the bench for Keatts, so if Keatts brings in a seasoned 2 guard, I’m going to bet Thomas sticks it out and plays behind him, pushing him and potentially breaking in to get more minutes as the season progresses.

Ebe Dowuona: As you’ve likely heard, Dowuona is leaving. He entered the portal, meaning that it was likely Burns and Mahorcic are coming back and Dowuona would be 3rd string yet again. As much as I liked Ebe’s passion and energy, I think NC State can find an upgrade in the portal if they want to get some depth behind Burns and Mahrocic. In fact, this is why I think they’ll be focusing on a 4/5 guy. What I mean by that is, a guy who can play both the 4 or the 5. A more versatile center with some meat on his bones. Someone physical, but also able to stretch the defense to the perimeter at times. This gives you that guy who can bang with bigger teams, and it also gives you depth at the center if the unthinkable happens.

Isaiah Miranda: The 7-foot forward joined the Wolfpack mid-season and some believed he would immediately get playing time seeing as he was a potential to jump straight to the NBA. Turns out, he had a lot of work to do. He needed to mature physically and he needed to get used to a lot more contact in the college game. He never saw the floor this year, so I’m not sure what to expect next season. Will he be ready? If the answer is yes, then State will be super deep at the 4 spot. If not, then I’m not sure what the move is going to be. In today’s game you can’t just wait around for guys to get it. Heck if you do, they might leave when they finally are ready, and you need every spot you can get for depth purposes. I don’t know how to look at this situation with Miranda. I’m guessing he’ll be here next season, but that is pure speculation.

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What will State look to add: If Smith is gone (which I think he is), and Ebe is gone (he is), they’ll be super focused on bringing in both a PG, a volume-scoring SG and a 4/5 guytrue. The guard positions are actually 2 positions that I don’t think they’ll have trouble filling with Keatts’s style of play. All these guys would have to look at is how Joiner or Smith was used and the fact that they have an elite big man and a really great spot-up shooter on the wing, and what more could you want? Plus you’re in the ACC playing for a team coming off an NCAA Tourny bid.

The question is, if you have a good group to choose from, what do you prioritize? I think you go out and find the best scoring guard you can find that can play on or off the ball. That’s your replacement for Terquavion Smith. However, I think at the PG spot you need to be a bit pickier. Joiner was great, but he and Smith’s games were just too similar. If you’re going to have a volume shooting 2 guard, then you need a PG who is a willing distributor. Joiner wasn’t really great at that. In fact, I think Markell Johnson would have been the perfect fit for this past years’ team. Keatts almost had to force Markell to become a scorer, He was a guy who could score when he needed to but was more comfortable finding an open man and making a play for his teammates. Thats the kind of player I think would fit best with this team and I think that’s a skill set that will be out there to be had.

If I’m Keatts I’m targeting a PG with a high 3pt %, someone who can read the pick and roll and make plays off of it, not necessarily be the #1 scoring option off of it. I think a kid that is more of a disrupter on offense would fit great in this offense. A one-dimensional scoring PG, IMO, isn’t ideal and is really what makes the offense so stagnant at times.

So my thought is that you get a volume-scoring SG with range who can give you 12-15 ppg, a PG who can average 8-1o ppg and 4-5 assists per game, and a big, physical 4 man who can give you 7 ppg and 5 rebounds per game.

Who is out there?
This is a good question and one we’ll be updating here shortly. We’ll start focusing in on guys who fit this mold and have some sort of NC State connection. Obviously, those would be the first calls since there are prior relationships, but there’s also a possibility to bring in guys who have no connection and simply see NC State as their best opportunity…which is something that is easier to envision this year than it was last year.

What about the incoming freshmen? 

NC State has 2 incoming freshmen in Trey Parker (SG) and Dennis Parker Jr (SF). Trey is a kid who I can see coming in and playing a role for NC State. The guy really is an elite athlete who can score at all 3 levels. He reminds me a lot of Terquavion Smith. He’s not a shy shooter and can get red hot from long-range. He’s had some HS games this season where he hit 5 or 6 3s and he’s also had a few where he went 2-9 or 0-5. So yeah, think Terquavion Smith. Now he’s not as slippery as Smith on the drive, but he’s more physical and is probably the best dunker in HS basketball. He’ll play next season and may even force his way into getting major minutes if he acclimates to ACC play fast enough.

As for Dennis Parker, he’s a guy who is super versatile. He’s a tweener at 6-6 but he’s a guy who can slot in at the 3, play a little 2 if needed but also the 4 in a pinch. He’s a kid that plays with no fear. He’s a good shooter, but he’s even better at driving to the rim. He’s physical, invites contact, and is a pretty nasty dunker as well. He’s a great defender and he’s super smart. He’s kind of like Casey Morsell, except that I’d say Morsell is more of a guard as a 3 man and Parker would be more of forward at the 3 position. Dennis Parker Jr may have more competition for minutes, but I expect him to get some playing time this season as well.

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At the end of the day, a lot of this is going to be fluid. Maybe more guys leave than expected, maybe less. Those decisions will dictate what the roster needs and what Keatts prioritizes. We’ll be keep tabs on the portal over the next few weeks/months and will keep you updated.