NC State has some big issues to fix with a crucial 2 week stretch on the horizon

NC State jumped out to a 5-0 record, beating up on easier opponents. However, they fell flat in their first two real tests of the season, dropping two in a row to #13 Purdue and BYU.

Now they have a two week stretch that is going to set the narrative for the rest of the season.

On Wednesday, the Pack hosts #28 Texas, follows it up with their ACC opener against FSU at home, then plays Coppin State before traveling to play #1 Kansas. This comes at a time when Keatts is having to make some big decisions on his rotation.

NC State’s brand of uptempo, high scoring offense hasn’t shown up against these upper level opponents. The Pack scored just 61 points each of the past two games, shooting 43% against Purdue and 37% against BYU. That includes an abysmal 23% from 3pt range vs the Boilermakers.

But it wasn’t just an offensive problem. The Pack was outrounded by 10 vs. Purdue and 12 by BYU. Both opponents dominated the offensive glass, winning the battle by 11 boards across the two games.

Looking back on last year’s run, a winning recipe for the Pack is to shoot over 45% from the floor, 35%+ from beyond the arc, and win or tie the rebounding battle. During the ACC and Final 4 run, NC State wasn’t making a living turning people over, they were making a living contesting shots and owning the boards.

Sure, you might be saying that this is only a 2 games stretch, and if you stay the course, things could change. But that’s playing with fire during a time where you need at least one decent OOC win and your window to get one is closing. And honestly, if you’ve watching this team play all season long, none of the issues you saw vs Purdue and BYU were surprising. They were just brought to the surface when the Pack finally played a top-tier opponent.

So what do you do? 

Well, NC State needs to find an identity on offense.
Playing through Huntley-Hatfield against Purdue, worked well. But when he was matched up against the muscle-bound bigs from BYU he looked flustered. I think there will be matchups where playing through him will work. But those games where that’s not working, NC State will need to find some consistent scoring from their guards and I’m really not sure where that comes from.

Move Jayden Taylor off the ball
Taylor is being relied upon right now to be that scorer and it’s not working out. He’s shooting just 27% from 3pt range, which is allowing defenders to sag off and defend the drive. This is always going to be the issue as Taylor just isn’t a great shooter off the dribble from 3, but can knock it down at a decent clip off the catch. He’s forcing it right now and that’s outside his skill set, which is why he’s leading the team with 24 turnovers (16 more than the next guard.)

If you ask me, Taylor needs to settle in more in the Casey Morsell role as the 3rd guard. Less ball handling, less attacking off the bounce. More of a catch-and-shoot guy and someone who gets a lot of his buckets in transition. His defense and rebounding are needed on the floor, just like it was for Morsell, but he needs to be more selective offensively.

The big gap for this team is at the 2 spot.

If Taylor moves to the 3, then who becomes your scoring guard? Who is the guy who can keep the defense honest, can break down the defense off the dribble and also knock down a perimeter 3? I think Keatts was trying to get by with Marcus Hill in this spot. But my early fears about Hill seem to be valid. He does most of his damage in the paint, and while that worked well in the Mid-American conference, it’s not as effective against Power-5 competition. Hill’s lack of a jumper hurts him. Defenders sag down and have the length to alter shots when he forces it up in traffic. Meanwhile, he’s shooting just 25% from 3, which is only 3% worse than he shot last year. So where do you turn?

Trey Parker has got to step up
You can keep doing what you’re doing, but you’re trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. Taylor and Hill aren’t going to lead you to an ACC Championship at the 2 guard. You can think that’s a premature statement if you want to, but based on their skillset and feedback from the first 7 games, I believe it’s clear.

I don’t think you have a veteran on this roster that can fill this role and while that’s definitely a problem, I also think it’s an opportunity.

Freshman Trey Parker has loads of talent and has shown flashes of being able to score from all 3 levels. So for better or for worse, I think Keatts needs to prioritize Parker’s minutes at SG. This is going to come with some bumps in the road, but I think it’s your only option if you want to make any significant run this season. He’s still getting lost a lot on help side defense, but that is something you can improve upon quickly. Let him make mistakes on defense, pull him out, coach him up, send him back in. Rinse. Repeat. Offensively, give him the keys to that slot and let his talent take over.

Ismael Diouf needs to emerge at the 4 spot
NC State probably could have overcome some of its offensive inefficiencies if they had competed on the boards, but over the past two games they were decimated on the glass. During NC State’s Final Four run, they were really good in the rebounding category, tying Texas Tech, beating Oakland by 12, beating Marquette by 7 and only losing to Duke by 2. The only lopsided game was vs. Purdue in the Final Four, where they were beat on the boards by 13 in the loss.

A big part of NC State becoming so competitive on the glass was the emergence of Mo Diarra. He was in double-digit rebound in 7 of the 10 postseason games. DJ Burns was only in double-digit rebounds for one of the postseason games.

This was a huge part of NC State’s run and the reason people were loving Mo Diarra (6’10, 215lbs) stepping up as NC State’s starting 4-man. After years of having either soft or undersized 4 men (Jack Clark, Greg Gantt, Ernest Ross, Jericole Hellems, Torin Dorn) they finally had 4 who was long, tall, skilled and was willing to mix it up in the paint.

But Diarra left to play professionally and they brought in Dontrez Styles, who is more in the mold of Jericole Hellems/Torin Dorn than Diarra.

I think there are times when Styles will create matchup problems for opposing teams, but you aren’t going to win a championship of any type with an undersized 4 who isn’t a dead-eye shooter.  You also aren’t going to win one with 2 back to the basket bigs out there (which is the other option, if Keatts opts to play BHH and Middlebrooks together).

This is another scenario where you just don’t have an experienced guy on this roster to fill that role.

What you do have is Ismael Diouf, a very versatile 6’9 freshman forward, who seems very similar in stature at 6’9, 215lbs. After being suspended for the first 2 games, he saw his first 8 minutes of action vs. Coastal Carolina where he grabbed 3 rebounds and had 2 points. He didn’t see any action again until the BYU game, where he logged just 3 minutes and didn’t record a stat, although he did look aggressive out there, both offensively and on the boards. He needs to get used to the physicality and speed of ACC basketball, but he’s got the frame and skillset to become a difference-maker on this team if given the chance.

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I know some of this will come off as knee-jerk reactions after just two losses, and relying on freshmen is a recipe for disaster in most cases, but this NC State roster has some very obvious holes if we’re being honest, and the guys with the skillsets and body types to fill those roles are freshmen. So Keatts is at a crossroads. Play the experienced NIL additions and see if experience can help them overcome their flaws, or give the kids a shot at more minutes and see if they can help fill some of the voids.