WOLFERETTI: Only 3 times in the Keatts era has an ACC team shot over 30 FTs with a positive double-digit disparity vs. NC State. All 3 times it’s been UNC.

This loss doesn’t sting, it stinks.

I’m not going to beat around the bush here. The refs were the primary reason NC State lost this game. What we watched wasn’t basketball, it was guys in striped shirts controlling an outcome.

Now, did they mean to do it? Did they get caught up in the UNC home crowd? Was there some kind of unconscious bias in play? Was it just a coincidence? Did NC State force their hand?

We’ll never know, but it seems par for the course if you’ve watched enough ACC basketball.

Think I’m being dramatic or making excuses? Judge for yourself.

UNC was 32-39 from the free-throw line. NC State was 12-12.

Yes, the Heels shot 27 more free throws than NC State last night.

You RARELY see a disparity in numbers like that in the ACC. I mean, sometimes you’ll get a game that is called super tight. In those games, you’d expect to see high Free Throw Attempt (FTA) totals for both teams. And sometimes you’ll get a game where the refs let you play, meaning you have low FTAs across the board. But I’ve never seen a conference game where on one side it’s called as extremely tight and on the other side they mostly just let the guys play. But that is exactly what happened last night. And if you somehow think that might be normal, I’ll take the time here to prove that it’s an EXTREME outlier.

Free Throw Attempt (FTA) Disparity in ACC games from NC State’s 2022-23 season to date

(+4) NC State 19 – Pitt 15  
(-5) NC State 12 – Miami 17 
(-3) NC State 21 – Louisville 24 
(+6) NC State 18 – Clemson 24  
(-11) NC State 15 – Duke 26*  
(-4) NC State 21 – VT 25  
(-2) NC State 20 – Miami 22  
(+2) NC State 21 – GT 19 
(-27) NC State 12 – UNC 39* 

Yeah, you see it. 27 is by far the largest FTA disparity we’ve seen all season, and it’s not even close.

So why does that matter? Well, the more fouls that are called, the more referees control the pace, flow (and score) of the game.

See, the more fouls, the quicker the teams get into the bonus, and when teams are in the bonus, any foul is one that stops momentum, sends guys to the line for free shots, and thus, changes the score without offense or defense involved.

Now, I’m not saying ACC referees stack up the fouls in games in order to control the game, but what I am saying is that IF someone was going to try to control a basketball game from the referee’s position, this would pretty much be the way you’d do it. How do I know? Well, it’s one way they DID do it in the NBA according to former NBA referee Tim Donaghy who was caught by the FBI for fixing games. Don’t take it from me though, Operation Flagrant Foul (a documentary about the Donaghy saga is on Netflix right now).

Now look, before you lose your mind and accuse me of accusing ACC refs of cheating, that’s not what I’m saying. I’m explaining how games are controlled and I’m telling you that I only know that because a former ref explained it to the world. Now, after 30+ years of watching NC State basketball, I’m starting to wonder how it’s possible these unlikely things keep happening. Some people call it the Curse of Jimmy V. Some people call it NC State S#*t. Whatever you call it, you know what I’m talking about.

The main problem is, I’m not superstitious and it’s getting harder and harder for me to believe that no matter who the players are, no matter who the coaches are, no matter who the athletic director is, the same story continues to unfold with Wolfpack basketball.

So what is going on?

Last night was just another chapter is the story. NC State plays UNC, fouls somehow play a role, the game flow just doesn’t feel like the rest of the games we’ve watched, and then the Pack loses. Fans get pissed. Blame the refs. Rinse and repeat.

So I wondered if I looked closely at the numbers if I’d find any patterns or try to uncover any hints as to what is going on. Again, not saying anyone is cheating, but wondering if there are subconscious biases involved or something. And if I didn’t find anything then I was going to just jump on the superstition bandwagon and call it a day.

Anyways, here are a few things that stood out to me.

– I saw that State’s season-low of 12 FTAs is tied for the lowest in conference play this year for the Pack.
They DID have 2 games where they shot fewer, but they were not in conference play. Those were vs Austin Peay and vs. Elon. In those games, NC State shot a ton of 3s. 28 vs AP and 33 vs Elon. So I guess in those games you could argue that they were playing mostly on the perimeter and there wasn’t much contact happening on dribble drives or post-play. This doesn’t hold true vs. UNC. NC State played physical on both ends, They were going down to Burns while Smith and Joiner were attacking the basket quite a bit. NC State shot just 17 3s (least amount in a conference game this season) vs. UNC. The Pack wasn’t just hanging out around the perimeter hoisting up 3s. They were playing a very similar style to what UNC was playing (UNC shot 18 3s) So there goes the ‘different styles of play’ argument.

– I found out There is very rarely a +20 FTA disparity in the ACC.
 In fact,  in the Keatts era, there have been only 7 games with a FTA disparity of 15 or more on either side, and of those, only 2 have had a disparity of 20 or more. I listed them below…

15+ FTA Disparity game  (NC State games – ACC) | 2021-22
(-27) NC State 12 – UNC 39 = Lost by 11

15+ FTA Disparity game  (NC State games – ACC) | 2021-22
None

15+ FTA Disparity game  (NC State games – ACC) | 2020-21
(+15) NC State 24 – Clemson 9 = Lost by 4

15+ FTA Disparity game  (NC State games – ACC) | 2019-20
(-18) NC State 7 – UNC 25 = Lost by 10
(-18) NC State 13 @ UNC 31 = Lost by 6

15+ FTA Disparity game  (NC State games – ACC) | 2018-19
(-19) NC State 9 @ Wake 28 = Lost by 3
(-22) NC State 7 @ Louisville 29 = Lost by 7
(-17) NC State 11 @ Duke 28 = Lost by 16

15+ FTA Disparity game  (NC State games – ACC) | 2017-18
None

—–

The only Pattern I could find here is that NC State lost all of these ‘high FT disparity games.’ It also may be worth noting that of the 7 ‘high disparity’ games, 5 of the 7 were Tobacco Road teams. And the last note here is that 5 of the ‘high disparity’ games FTA slants went against NC State and only once went for them. However, they even lost the one where they shot a ton more FTs.

– I found out that NC State rarely have games where one or both of the teams attempt 30 FTs  in ACC play.
Actually, during the Keatts era only 7 times during ACC play has NC State played in a game where this occurred.

1 – Last night vs UNC (they shot 39 FTs)
2- In 2021 vs. Pitt (they shot 34 and NC State shot 30 FTs)
3. In 2020 vs UNC (They shot 31 FTs)
4. In 2019 vs Wake (They shot 30 FTs)
5. In 2019 vs FSU (They shot 30 FTs)
6. In 2019 vs UNC (They shot 37 FTs)
7. In 2018 vs Wake (They shot 31 FTs)

No real pattern here other than UNC being here 3 times, and again 5 of the 7 games are Tobacco Road teams.

– However, if you look at those 30 FT games again, and then look at the disparity of those FTs,  here is what you find…

1.  NC State 12 – UNC 39 (-27)
2. NC State 34 – Pitt 30 (-4)
3. NC State 13 – UNC 31 (-18)
4. NC State 30 – Wake 26 (+6)
5. NC State 21 – FSU 30 (-9)
6. NC State 24 – UNC 37 (-13)
7. NC State 31 – Wake 22 (+9)

The only time over the entire Keatts era (during ACC play) that you had a team with extraordinarily high Free Throw Attempts (FTAs) in a game AND a double-digit disparity in team FTAs was the 3 UNC games, one of which was last night.

Kind of interesting if you ask me. But not convinced of anything….

Then I went to see “What if this had happened in any other ACC game prior to last night for UNC.” I wanted to see if UNC just lived at the foul line all the time while their opponents weren’t able to get there. If so, maybe they just play a style of basketball that I was unaware existed. One where you’re able to be very physical on offense and get to the line, but able to play such good defense that you don’t allow your opponent to the line.

I mean, you could also just say they always get calls, but I’m trying to give them the benefit of the doubt.

However, what I found is that aside from the NC State game, their highest Free Throws Attempted (FTAs) in ACC play is 27 vs VT. And in almost every conference game this season, their FTA discrepancy has been around 3 to 5. Oh, but there was one other outlier other than the +27 from last night, which was a +16 vs. Georgia Tech (They shot 24 to GTs 8 FTs) and that game happened to be on the heels of their 4 game losing streak when the bottom was falling out and they NEEDED a win.

Interesting again, but at the end of the day, this proves nothing. Maybe NC State was just foul-happy last night and UNC wasn’t. Maybe despite a full roster of different players, the same thing tends to happen every couple of years, only when NC State takes on UNC. Maybe, these are just excuses and NC State really is just cursed.

Or maybe not.