On Monday, we brought up the seemingly insane thought that State WBB wouldn’t be a #1 seed. While at first we were stunned, it got us thinking; Does it even matter?
The WBB tourney is so much different than men’s when it comes to results. More often than not, although there are 64 teams that start, only the top seeds really make their way to the finish line. That said, should be noted that this year the top seeds won’t host the first two rounds, as they normally do.
Start Strong
Crazy enough, technically, it’s statistically better to start the Tournament as a #2 or #3 seed. Since 1982;
1-Seeds in First Round Matchups are 103-1
2 and 3-Seeds in First Round Matchups are 104-0
What a dramatic difference, right? There’s a little more separation between 1’s and 2’s in the second round, depending on if they are facing a previous round upset or not.
1-Seeds vs 8-Seeds in Second Round are 48-1
1-Seeds vs 9-Seeds in Second Round are 52-2
Regardless what team first seeds play in the next round, they fair well with a winning percentage of .970. Two-seeds, however, really see a difference depending on second round matchups.
2-Seeds vs 7-Seeds in Second Round are 49-13
2-Seeds vs 10-Seeds in Second Round are 31-3
If you are a second seed, you immediately need to hope for an upset in the 7-10 matchup. This all proves how top heavy the NCAA Tournament is, as a whole. For the most part, 1-7 seeds are the competitors and 8-16 are there for a good, short time.
Elite Eight
Regardless if State is a #1 or #2 seed, we would like to think they can get to the Elite Eight. There they could meet South Carolina, Texas A&M, UCONN or Stanford and prove, one way or the other, that they are truly a contender. So let’s take a look at the last five years of NCAAT to see what the chances are they get there.
In the last five years of Elite Eights;
1-Seeds – 18 of 20 made it
2-Seeds – 13 of 20 made it
When everything was said and done, only 9 teams outside the top-2 seeds made it to the Elite Eight. Yes, there is a higher chance for 1-seeds to survive and advance, but not overwhelmingly.
Final Four
This is finally where we see the top seeds separate themselves from the competition. Over the last five years, with 20 Final Four slots;
1-Seeds were 13 of 20
2-Seeds were 5 of 20
That’s right…If you are a number one seed, you have a 65% chance of getting to the Final Four. In fact, two of the last five Final Four consisted of ALL 1-Seeds.
Champions
We call the WBB Tourney in the biz, “Chalk Time”. Most 3-16 seeds should just save the travel money from the get-go. The last time a team outside the top two spots won it all? 1997, when the 3rd seeded Tennessee Volunteers won. Those 22 years since have seen 1-seeds win 18-times and 2-seeds win 4.
Now, this is all slightly skewed from the fact that UCONN is a monster and had double-digit championships spanning two decades. But when in doubt, put money on a 1-seed to take the whole damn thing home.
What it means for State
Simply put, if State does what they need to do, they’ll make it to the Elite Eight and it truly wont matter. Even as a 2-Seed, they’d find themselves with a 65% chance of facing a top seed and get their revenge. We’ll just have to patiently wait until Monday to find out what the committee thought.
Regardless, Wes Moore will get the team laser focused and, hopefully, State fans can have some fun. Just please be longer than a day, right MBB?