An honest ‘glass half full / glass half empty’ preview of the NC State Baskeball | The Guards

We’re baaaack!!!

NC State is coming off one of the most improbable Final 4 runs in history. However, they’ve lost their the two most important pieces from last year’s squad. Can Kevin Keatts build on last year’s magic and solidify NC State as an ACC powerhouse, or will NC State fade back into mediocrity? I’m going to take a look at all the pieces and give an honest (but not always popular) take.

Let’s start with the guards…

Mike O’Connell

Glass Half Full: O’Connell comes in and plays the role he played down the stretch for NC State. Lead guard, keeping the offense patient, and knocking down open 3s. He is the steady hand for the Pack, helps them carry over their success from last year’s run and plays the role of ‘coach on the floor’. O’Connell’s leadership and discipline with the basketball rub off on the team, and NC State continues to play top-tier basketball.

Glass Half Empty: O’Connell struggles with his shot and defenses are able to play off of him, as they did early in the year last season. Anything that keeps him off the floor would also be a worst case scenario, as we saw the Pack unravel when he got hurt in the Final Four vs. Purdue. O’Connell is the key to this team right now, he’s the captain on the floor. They need him out there in almost every situation.

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Mike James

Glass Half Full: Mike James comes in after averaging double-digits at Louisville and becomes a go-to scorer for NC State. He shoots around 37% from 3pt range and secures the 2 spot in the NC State rotation. He becomes NC State’s leading scorer and at 6’5, becomes a matchup nightmare night in and night out.

Glass Half Empty: Mike James’ knee injury bleeds into the season and he never really gets going. His 3pt percentage drops and he starts forcing the drives into the paint (as he did at times at Louisville), throwing off the NC State offense.

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Paul McNeil

Glass Half Full: McNeil comes in as a freshman and takes control of the 3 spot for NC State. He shoots around 40% from the arc, is the Pack’s top 3 point shooters, establishes himself as a premier scorer, and does enough defensively to keep himself on the floor.

Glass Half Empty: MeNeil struggles to acclimate to the physicality of ACC basketball and stronger defenders take away his ability to drive/create, making him settle for contested perimeter shots.

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Trey Parker

Glass Half Full: Parker shows that he is much more than a highlight reel dunker and showcases his ability to score on all 3 levels. Remember, Parker really held his own against Kentucky’s bigtime recruit and current NBA PG, Rob Dillingham. If he plays like that, he breaks into NC State rotation and becomes a true offensive spark plug off the bench.

Glass Half Empty: Parker struggles to stay controlled with the speed of the ACC game, tries to force the issue too much himself and gets turnover prone, causing Keatts to look elsewhere for instant offense off the bench.

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Bryce Heard

Glass Half Full: Heard, who was a perfect 3-3 from the field and 1-1 from 3pt range in his college debut (exhibition vs. Lees-McRae), comes in as a late addition pleasant surprise. The 4-star shooting guard who reclassified and committed to NC State ends up becoming a great scoring option off the bench and becomes one of the NC State’s trusted perimeter scorers and starts pushing for starter minutes by season’s end.

Glass Half Empty: Heard, who is making the transition from high school, find the ACC to be a little faster and more physical than he was anticipating and he’s not able to make the jump as quickly as expected, pushing him into a lower-use role off the bench.

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Breon Pass

Glass Half Full: Pass takes the next step as a PG and secures the NC State backup PG role. Pass becomes a steady PG who never turns the ball over, can come in and give an offensive spark, and can lock down smaller guards on defense. Pass shoots 37% from 3pt range and you start to see the consistent flashes of what made him a 4-star recruit and big-time high school scorer.

Glass Half Empty: Pass focuses too much on being an offensive weapon and forces the issue at the point instead of controlling the offense, a little like he did during the 2022/23 season. This forces Keatts to look elsewhere for someone who can give O’Connell a breather and secure the ball in the meantime.

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Jayden Taylor

Glass Half Full: Taylor steps up and takes the next step for the Pack. He becomes the team’s leading perimeter scorer, is the go-to guy with the game on the line and becomes a star in the ACC on both ends of the floor. Had he not gone through a 7 game ice-cold streak from 3pt range, Taylor would have been shooting over 40% from downtown last year. If he can establish to defenses that he will knock down the 3, then his ability to get to the rim and get to the line, really become dangerous. In the best case scenario, Taylor is NC State’s emotional leader on the floor.

Glass Half Empty: Taylor struggles to find his shot through large chunks of the season and loses confidence in his offensive ability (like we saw mid-season last year). He lets it get to his head and lets his emotion get the best of him, forcing Keatts to look to guys like Mike James or Marcus Hill to play a larger role.

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Marcus Hill

Glass Half Full: Hill comes in and carves out a role for himself, getting time as the backup PG and slotting at the 2. Hill becomes one of NC State’s top playmakers with the ball, directing defenses on the pick and role, and getting to the rim to create havoc. Hill improves drastically over his 29% 3pt percentage from last year and he becomes a true threat with the basketball thanks to his slippery style and ability to get into the lane with ease.

Glass Half Empty: Hill has a tough time come from Bowling Green to the ACC. Getting in the lane is one thing, but Hill could struggle with larger, north athletic bigs in this conference. He can’t keep defenses honest if he’s not knocking down the outside shot, so the pick and role becomes easier to guard, which his man sagging to take away the roll, forcing him to prove he can knock down he 3. In a worst case scenario for Hill, he can’t carve out a role and Bryce Heard/Trey Parker/Breon Pass eat into his minutes.