Analyzing NC State’s Path to Making the ACC Tournament After Beating Wake Forest

After defeating Wake Forest 85-73 yesterday, the NC State Men’s Basketball team now occupies 16th place in the ACC with a 4-12 conference record.

With the ACC’s expansion to include three new teams (SMU, Cal, and Stanford) this season, only 15 of the 18 conference teams will qualify for the 2025 ACC Tournament.

Currently, both NC State and Boston College are one game behind Cal and Syracuse, who rank 14th and 15th in the standings, respectively, both sharing a 5-11 conference record. Syracuse currently holds the tiebreaker over Cal, having beaten them head-to-head. Similarly, NC State holds the tiebreaker over Boston College (currently in 17th place) due to their head-to-head victory.

NC State will play at Syracuse on Wednesday night at 7 PM on ESPNU. If the Wolfpack defeats the Orange, they will be tied with a 5-12 record. Cal will face SMU the same night and is considered the underdog. Boston College will also play at Stanford, facing long odds as well.

If Wednesday’s games conclude with the Wolfpack defeating the Orange, the Mustangs overcoming the Golden Bears, and the Cardinals beating the Eagles, NC State, Syracuse, and Cal would all be tied with a 5-12 record in ACC play.

Should the season end at that moment, out of the Wolfpack, Orange, and Golden Bears, only two of the three would advance to the ACC Tournament, filling the 14th and 15th spots.

The first tiebreaker among the three teams would be their games against each other, which would leave all three still tied, as all teams would have a 1-1 record against one another.

The next tiebreaker would be to look at the record of all three teams against the top team in the ACC. If that does not resolve the tie, their records against the 2nd, then the 3rd place teams, and so forth, would be considered.

According to this tiebreaker, you’d have to go down to the 4th place team to split the teams up, because NC State, Syracuse, and Cal each lost to Duke, Louisville, and Clemson, who sit in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd places, respectively. Wake Forest, in 4th place, presents a differentiating factor; NC State’s victory over the Demon Deacons would give them the edge, with both the Orange and the Golden Bears having lost to them.

This scenario is hypothetical, but if NC State defeats Syracuse on Wednesday and Cal loses to SMU, the Wolfpack would be sitting in 14th place in the ACC standings.

If the Wolfpack defeats the Orange, and the Golden Bears defeat the Mustangs, NC State would sit in 15th over Syracuse due to beating them head-to head.

Even if Boston College defeats Stanford, it wouldn’t affect the standings. If the Wolfpack, Orange, and Eagles were tied after Wednesday’s games, the first tiebreaker would examine their records against each other. This would place NC State in 15th place, due to their victories over both teams they were tied with.

Again, this is all conjecture at this point, but to clarify, NC State currently sits in 16th place. A win on Wednesday would position the Pack in either 14th or 15th place in the ACC, with three games remaining.