5 positives to focus on heading into tonight’s matchup with #20 Auburn

NC State is back from Maui and set to take on #20 Auburn tonight in the ACC/SEC challenge.

I think there are really some mixed feelings right now throughout the fan base. You have the fact that State dropped 2 games in Maui to Seton Hall and Texas when they were picked to win the Invitational. That said, Seton Hall went to the wire with USC after they beat us (USC is ranked 26th on Ken Pom) and Texas has only lost to Duke and Arizona State (by 1). So will those end up hurting the Big Dance Resume?

Nah. They won’t. Both of these games are likely to be at least Quad 2 losses since they were on a neutral court, which means neither loss will really penalize the Pack. However, the win over Boise State will likely end up as a Quad 2 win, which will be helpful. So, while you can be a little let down with the outcomes in Maui, I think really there was no harm done for the Pack’s postseason chances.

But tonight, as they head to Auburn, you’re looking at a sure-shot Quad 1 opportunity. Win this, and you put a real nice line item on your resume.

So, can they pull it off?

I think they can, and I’m saying that because, while we’ve talked a lot about the flaws that reared their head in the losses, there were a ton of positives that you could take from Maui, especially the Boise St and Texas games. Let’s take a few minutes to discuss those…

1. NC State’s offense averaged 89 points in Maui. 
This can’t be overstated. NC State scored 89+ points only twice last season (against Rider and SC Upstate) and only 3 times the season before (vs. Maryland Eastern Shore and Louisville twice). This offense is humming. The early-season turnover issues seem to have settled. They turned it over just 6 times against Texas after turning it over 10 times vs. Boise St. They shot 50% from the floor in that Boise St game, along with 43% from 3 pt range. And then vs. Texas, they shot 53% from the floor and 47% from 3pt range.

2. Ven-Allen Lubin averaged 17 and 11 in Maui.
Lubin has honestly been the most consistent offensive player for the Pack as the competition has stiffened and Wade has asked him to do more. His minutes have gone from around 20, to about 30 and Wade has seen increased production from that investment. Lubin is NC State’s best rebounder; he’s playing super physical on the blocks. He’s a hard cover because he’s such a strong finisher down there. The Texas front line is massive and if there was going to be a group to shut down Lubin, it’d be the, but the big man went out and 23 on them. Remember, Lubin was responsible for UNC’s late season surge last year, and with increased minutes, we’re starting to see that same player.

3. Paul McNeil Jr had a big game against strong competition and showed another dimension to his game
McNeil had a great start to the season, but I think everyone was a bit nervous when the first two games against stronger opponents, P2 went missing. He scored zero vs VCU (but did grab 9 boards) and then 9 vs. Seton Hall (just 1-5 from long range). But against Boise St and Texas, we saw him get going again. He’d have played more vs. Boise St, but Matt Able was on fire, and you couldn’t take Terence Arceneaux off the floor. But when those guys struggled vs. Texas, Wade leaned on the sophomore, and he delivered to the tune of 20pts on 6-11 shooting (3-6 from 3).

While it was great to see McNeil get going again, more importantly, we saw a different dimension to his game. He shot 11 shots, 6 were 3s (54%), which means 5 weren’t. Now, you might not think that’s noteworthy, however prior to that game McNeil had shot 58 shots. 42 of those were 3s (72%). Paul McNeil Jr is a 6’5 guard who was a 3 level scorer in high school. Seeing 70%+ of his shots be 3s is shortchanging the other aspects of his game. The 54% we saw vs. Texas is probably more where the staff would like to see him. He’s too versatile to allow teams to treat him as a catch-and-shoot scorer. Seeing him get more aggressive and accepting a little more physicality with his drive is a great sign going forward.

4. Alyn Breed is carving out a role for himself.
NC State has no shortage of large guards (Copeland, Able, Holloman). They also don’t have a shortage of shoot-first scorers (Able, McNeil, Holloman). What they are missing a ‘pace’ guy. A ‘calm you down when he’s handling the basketball’ guy. And I think Wade’s found that in his old friend Alyn Breed.  Now, I think it’s easy to overlook Breed and his role, but I’m telling you, 12 minutes vs. Boise St. and 14 vs. Texas. Wade is showing you something. He’s increasing Breed’s role.

What is Breed giving you? Well, let’s put it in context. Tre Holloman is usually on the floor for his scoring. Over the course of the season, he’s averaged .44 points per minute played. In the last two games, in an increased role, Alyn Breed is averaging .46 points per minute played. Meanwhile, Holloman is averaging 2 turnovers per game, while Breed has been super secure with the basketball, only turning it over twice all season. He’s been confident with his handle, he’s never taking bad shots, which I think is what Wade is really liking about him in there. Wade has been talking about ‘shooting turnovers’ a lot lately, which means he’s concerned about shot selection. Breed might not give you a volume shooter, bue he’s also not going to give you many of those ‘shooting turnovers.’

Remember, Breed isn’t some nobody. Some were penciling him in as the starting 2 guard prior to McNeil announcing his return and Able committing. Even then, people viewed Breed as a major piece for Wade up until the start of the season. It’s worth remembering that prior to his injury last year at McNeese, he dropped 17 on #2 Alabama and then turned around and dropped 18 on San Diego State.

5. All of NC State’s defensive flaws are fixable. 
NC State’s main concern right now. I’d say defense, but it’s not like they have a fatal flaw there or anything. They forced Texas to shoot 32 3s. They just happened to hit 50% of them. Boise St shot 33, they hit just 33%. NC State won. Seton Hall was kind of the outlier because the NC State offense was just bad in that one. But I guess the question is, how can you tweak your defense in a way that you can keep doing what you’re doing, but you make it a little harder for opposing teams to get clean 3pt looks.

For instance, they are sending the double teams to the post very early and from the back side. The Texas bigs had this scouted and were working the ball crosscourt as soon as they saw it coming, before NC State could rotate. Do you hesistate before sending that double? Do you constantly send it from different spots, making the big have to question where the open guy is.

How do you defend the ball screen with VAL? Do you continue to switch him off and drop him down, allowing for straightaway open 3s?

I think those are just two main areas that small tweaks could yield huge dividends. This is a versatile and deep roster, there are a lot of ways you could try to stick with your strategy but adjust it a bit to throw your opponents off balance.