FINDING BALANCE: NC State reaching its full potential rests on Williams and Copeland’s ability to shine together

The NC State offense can be elite.

In fact, for much of the season, it has been. But a lot of the offensive success has come against teams with weak defensive metrics.

So, what happens when you put the Wolfpak offense up against a top-tier defense? Well, it’s been mixed. NC State has played 4 teams within the Defensive Top-100 (according to Ken Pom). Let’s look at how they fared.

#31 VCU (Win)
NC State’s AsjO = 124.1

#13 Seton Hall (Loss)
NC State’s AdjO = 108.1

#24 Boise St. (Win)
NC State’s AdjO = 125.8

#72 Auburn (Loss)
NC State’s AdjO = 110.7

*AdjO is the metric for points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for: Strength of opposing defenses, Pace/tempo of games + other statistical adjustments to make teams comparable

As you can see, NC State has been uneven against good defensive teams. The 125-range AdjO is really good. The 110 range? Just average, and with NC State’s sloppy defense in those games, they need to be in the ‘Really good’ range, or it was going to be a loss.

Now, the defense we just saw against Liberty could change your expectations, but let’s just operate on the assumption that NC State needs to be VERY good on offense to win games.

Are there any significant differences between the games where they were in the 125 range vs. the games they struggled?

Well, yes, the games where they were good on offense, they won. The games where they struggled, they lost. But aside from that, there were a few glaring things that stood out to us while studying these games…

It started with the eye test. In both the Auburn game and the Seton Hall game, it just looked like a slog. The offense felt stagnant; there wasn’t as much ball movement, and it felt like guys were just standing around and watching. But in the VCU and Boise State games, there seemed to be more flow, more consistency, more ball movement on the offensive end.

This, coinciding with the decrease in output from Darrion Williams, led us to start looking into usage numbers, and what we saw there matches up directly with what Wade had to say in last night’s press conference…

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Before we get to his quote, let’s set the table…

Will Wade continues to harp on needing to find the right combinations. He has said it in just about every press conference, and I don’t think anyone disagrees.

This team has talent. This team has guys from winning programs. They have size, length, athleticism, they can shoot it. They have it all. But something wasn’t clicking, and Wade felt it.

You know, coaching basketball is a lot like cooking.

Sometimes you just don’t have the right ingredients for the recipe. In that case, no matter how hard you try, the food just isn’t going to taste right.

But sometimes you have all the ingredients, and you just have to figure out how much of each ingredient you need to make that perfect dish.

That is the key to unlocking NC State’s potential, and it seems Wade and his staff are starting to get a clearer picture of what that looks like…

Ok, now let’s get to that quote. Here is what Wade said when he was asked about Copeland’s stellar play over the past couple of weeks…

“It’s good. We talked about it. Q’s been good. Now, you always have to make sure he stays good.

He can get off the rails here quick. You’ve got to make sure he stays in his lane. But I thought today we did a good job of him and Darrion running parallel lanes.

A lot of times when Q’s in the fast lane, Darrion’s in the slow lane. We’ve got to have both of them in the same lane, and we’ve got to divert the other guys to the side streets. Those are the only two that can be on the interstate at the same time.”

There’s a lot there in that quote.

What it seems like he’s saying is that Copeland has been elite, and you want to continue to see that output from him, but he’s a playmaker. He’s always been a playmaker, and only over the past two seasons has been given the reins and trusted as a point guard. And playing PG isn’t just dribbling and passing. It’s pace control, and it’s situational awareness as well.

One area Wade is challenging Copeland is learning how to coexist with Williams.

This is the puzzle Wade and his staff have been working to solve. You have two guys who are playmakers. They are your best players. But to get their full value, both guys need the ball in their hands to make plays, and there’s only one basketball.

The answer: Find the right balance.

Take a look at this…

Focus on the four games NC State has played against Top-100 defenses. The games they won and had strong AdjO? Those were games where Q and Darrion both had high usage numbers. In the Seton Hall game, both guys had awful usage numbers, and in the Auburn game, Q’s numbers were up but Darrion’s were down.

Even when you expand these numbers to all the games, while there are a couple of outliers, it seems clear. The more balance, the better, and if one guy is going to have higher usage numbers by a small margin, you want it to be Williams.

Now, why would that be? Copeland has been NC State’s most valuable player by far over the past few weeks.

That’s true, but I believe these numbers bear out this way because of playing style.

Darrion Williams works as a central hub. The ball hits his hands, and something happens fast. He either moves it if nothing is there or he attacks. With Copeland, his value is more in isolation off the dribble. A lot of his success comes from setting up the defense and creating his own shot using his athleticism and size.

Neither one is wrong; they are just two distinct styles of play, but when Wade refers to Q “going off the rails” I believe he’s referring more to him getting tunnel vision and trying to do too much (which, with his style, and the fact that he’s the primary ball handler, means the other guys are left standing around).

I think there was a concerted effort in this game to try to balance this. You saw Darrion Williams hit the 30% usage number for the first time since UNCG (almost hit it at VCU) after a stretch where he saw 3 games in the teens and one in the low 20s.

NC State paid a LOT of money for the Darrion Williams that Texas Tech had last season.

That Darrion Williams had a usage rate of 27% (when you include the postseason run). He is a unique player with a unique skill set. To extract the full value, he needs to ball.

At the same time, Copeland is coming into his own and also thrives with a high usage rate, as you can see from the 4 previous games where he was in the 30 range himself.

Both of these guys are irreplaceable pieces. They are both superstars, but have some overlap in their games.

The key for the NC State staff is to help these two manage this. You have two unique puzzle pieces, and to the naked eye they may not feel like they fit together, but where there’s a Will, there’s a way (pun intended), and it seems like NC State is well aware of this challenge and already making it clear their plan to unlock the team’s potential by finding that fit.

If Liberty is any indication, Wade’s going to let Q continue to cook, but increase the number of sets you see that go directly through Williams. This gives Williams a ton of touches in spots where he can facilitate. That has been leading to a crisp offensive flow with positive outcomes even if he has an off-shooting night. Meanwhile,  Copeland is still able to get his, as you saw from his elite 11pt, 7 rebound, 7 assist line.

But doing it against Liberty is one thing. Doing it against Kansas, the #8 defense in the country…that’s where the real test begins.

Stay tuned for Part 2 where we’ll examine how guys like Alyn Breed and Musa Sagnia are earning a role alongside Q & Darrion by producing high value with low usage.