5 Thoughts on NC State’s 79-71 win over Boston College

The Wolfpack moved to 11-5 overall and 2-1 in the ACC with their win at Boston College on Tuesday. Here were 5 main takeaways from the win.

(We’re going to be talking about a stat called BPM(2.0). It’s Box +/-, the definition and calculation can be found at the bottom of this article. TLDR: It give yous a good idea of how well an individual contributed to winning.)

1) NC State snapped its 15-game ACC road losing streak, which started on February 27th, 2024, at Florida State.  That lasted the remainder of that season and through the entire 2024-25 season. Will Wade broke the streak in his first attempt.

2) Darrion Williams finally got going. Maybe it was the headband, or maybe he just finally found his shot, but he went for 22 points on 8-18 shooting, which isn’t that great, but he did hit 4-7 3s, which is a great sign. Williams added 4 points and 2 assists. NC State desperately needs him to be more of this version going forward. That said, you’d like to see a little more efficiency from him inside the arc and on the defensive end. He finished with a positive 5.8 Offensive Box +/- (a Torvik stat) but another negative Defensive Box +/-, which was -3.1.  That totals up to game Box +/- of +2.7, which means he had a winning impact on this game.

3) Terrance Arceneaux had another big game and is way more valuable than many realize. Arceneaux has had a tough transition to Raleigh. He came in cemented as a rotation guy, but has failed to put together any kind of consistency thus far. Last night, with Tre Holloman sidelined with a tweaked ankle, TA got some extended minutes…and man did he seize the opportunity. Arceneaux went for 12 points on 4-6 shooting and 3-3 from 3pt range. He also

This was his second +20 BPM game of the season. The other one was vs. Boise State, NC State’s only Top-50 win. To get graded out that high, you need to be doing everything right on both ends of the floor, and he was. When he’s giving you offense, and he was in this one (+16.2 Offensive BPM), then he’s easier to keep on the floor. And you want him on the floor for his defense. He was +4.3 in defensive BPM in this game, which was really needed because, honestly, the rest of the D stunk it up.

4) Matt Able finally breaks out! Actually, Will Wade said he was going to take ‘the restrictor plate’ off of Able prior to this game, and I think that gave Matt some confidence. He looked a lot more sure of himself. Less thinking, more attacking. Able finished with 11 points on 4-7 shooting, going 3-4 from long range. He also added 6 boards and 2 assists. He was NC State’s leading rebounder.

State needed this. Paul McNeil has been great at times, but nobody wants to talk about it, but he’s struggled a bit since teams started to really key in on him. He finished 2-10 in this one. Over the last few weeks, a game like that would be a recipe for disaster for NC State, but with Able and TA rolling, they ended up being fine. The more guys that step up the less teams can key in on tailing McNeil. Having thew 2 new weapons, plue Darrion getting back in the mix is going to unlock McNeil against better opponents.

5) The defense was awful. NC State finished up allowing 50% from the floor and 50% from 3pt range to a team that was really struggling shooting the basketball. This was NC State’s 2nd worse graded defensive game with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 123.3. Only the Texas game was worse. Lots of losing guys, lots of late rotations and miscommunications. I need to rewatch the game, but my initial thought is, there was a lack of focus and discipline in this game. Effort was ok, but not where it needs to be for ACC play.

Next up is @ FSU on Saturday at noon.

———–
Box +/- (2.0) calculation:

The exact formula is proprietary in its full details on Bart Torvik’s site, but it follows Myers’ BPM 2.0 methodology closely:

1. Normalize player box score stats to per 100 possessions (accounting for pace and minutes played).
2. Estimate the player’s position/role (e.g., guard vs. big) to apply position-specific coefficients.
3. Compute a raw BPM by weighting contributions:– Positive: Scoring (points, efficient shooting), assists, rebounds, steals, blocks.-Negative: Turnovers, missed shots, fouls (indirectly). Coefficients vary by position (e.g., blocks weigh more for bigs; assists more for guards).
4. Apply a team adjustment: Sum raw BPMs (weighted by minutes) across the team and calibrate to the team’s overall adjusted efficiency margin. This distributes unassigned credit (e.g., from team defense or untracked plays) among players on the court.
5. Separate into OBPM (offense-focused regression) and DBPM (remainder, with defensive weights).

This makes BPM “team-aware” — players on stronger teams may get slight boosts from the adjustment, but individual stats drive most of the value.