Clemson has a massive front line, and thrives off physicality and consistency. How can NC State steal a win?

NC State struggles against bigger, stronger, more physical teams that make it hard to score around the rim.

Clemson is that exact team.

The Tigers come into this game a perfect 6-0 in ACC play. They are 16-3 overall with two of their 3 losses coming to Top-15 ranked teams. Clemson is good and NC State is going to have to be better than they’ve been all season to beat them.

Let me make it simple.

Clemson is rolling out a massive and versatile front line. The 6’8 Godfrey is super physical, but also versatile. He can back you down or face you up. He’s bouncy and invites contact. He’s leading the team at 12 ppg and also adding over 5 boards per game.

Then there is the 6’10 Jake Wahlin, who is averaging just 6 points and 4 boards, but is another huge versatile big who can step out and hit a jumper or back you down on the blocks.

Their second leading scorer, and a guy who is coming on as of late, is Carter Welling, who is averaging 10 points and leading the team with 6 rebounds. Oh, he’s 6’10 too. He’s been in double figures the last 3 games, with 18 last time out vs. Miami.

Those are some big dudes… but we’re not done.

They also have Nick Davidson, another 6’10 guy. He’s averaging 9 points and 4 boards, but he’s had some big games. He’s more of a perimeter-oriented big, but he can still take you down low.

This is the Clemson recipe. Massive, fundamental bigs with versatility, paired with strong, physical guards who defend and can score a little.

This year, they have Jestin Porter, who is scoring it well. He’s their second leading scorer at 11 points and shooting 36% from long range. He’s physical, disciplined and not ball-dominant. He also is averaging less than a turnover per game. He’s paired with Dillon Hunter, a 6’3, 192lb well-build guard who also loves contact, can shoot it from 3 (41%) and won’t turn it over.

In fact, Clemson is one of the best teams at protecting the basketball. They are 29th in TO% (a great number for a team this big).

So how does NC State win this game?

I honestly don’t know. What I mean by that is, if NC State just rolls out what they have been doing, they won’t win. Clemson has been good at home, and they are great at taking away all the things NC State likes to do.

Clemson’s size, if used as they have been using it, will create havoc against NC State’s switch-everything defense. They are going to have 3 guys on the court who are size/physicality mismatches for us, so if I’m them, I’m running actions that get me switches, and then I’m finding those mismatches and exploiting them. Clemson is disciplined and poised, so believe me, they will take the time to find these.

Usually, you want to speed up a big, lumbering team, but Clemson is ranked so high for a reason. Their slew of 6’10 bigs can all handle the basketball and are all high-IQ players. Try to press them, and they can see over the top, find release valves, and make you pay.

Like I said, this is a low-turnover team that is methodical and smart.

They are going to play drop coverage on Q on the pick and roll. They will ask him to make shots. If he can hit a couple of early 3s, they will have to start respecting his 3. This will open up his skill-set and give NC State a lot of options offensively. If he doesn’t, we’re in trouble.

Clemson is surely going to follow on screens with McNeil. They will allow him into the lane on curls, living with him shooting a long 2, or a floater over their height.

And if NC State can’t get Q and McNeil going, and if Darrion doesn’t magically find his shot, then things look bleak on offense. And that means missed shots, and missed shots mean tons of transition opportunities for your opponent.  (GT was in transition 65% of the time on Saturday and scored 20+ points there).

See the snowball effect.

NC State isn’t going to dissect Clemson like they did Florida State. This team is different, and I think Wade and his staff know this. Something is going to be different today. It might be the rotation, it might be the defensive strategy, it might be the way we attack on offense. I don’t know, but on paper, if you roll out our team, the way  we’ve been rolling out, with the attack strategy we’ve deployed during ACC play, we are looking at a massive uphill climb.

Honestly, if NC State rolls out the status quo in this game, they’re going to either need someone (or a couple of guys) to have a way above average shooting game or Clemson is going to have to come out totally out of sorts (we can help that by winning the intensity battle on that end of the floor.)

Over Wade’s career, one area he’s been good is ‘in-season shifts’ based on personnel. Let’s see if he’s still got that trick in his bag.