TERRANCE TIME? Arceneaux’s conference output suggests his role is about to grow

There was a long stretch at the beginning of the season where Terrance Arceneaux was struggling badly.

In fact, it got so bad that Will Wade sat him down after the Seton Hall game and told him…

Arceaneaux responded by putting up his best performance of the season just one night later vs. Boise State.

He scored 11 points, grabbed 4 rebounds, had 3 steals, 2 blocks and 2 assists.

NC State beat Boise State that night (which at the time was their first Top-50 win) and Terrance played a season-high 23 minutes.

But carving out his role has ended up being tougher than expected.

Despite the performance, Terrance didn’t log another 23-minute game until Liberty.

And when he got those 23 minutes vs. Liberty, he played well. Scoring 8 points and grabbing 3 rebounds. More importantly, it was NC State’s highest AdjO/AdjD differential of the season at +57.7.

To get that number, you take the team’s adjusted offensive efficiency (higher the better) and subtract their adjusted defensive efficiency (the lower the better). So the higher this differential is, the better you played.

The reason I’m pointing this out is that there are trends showing up here. 

Terrance didn’t play 23+ minutes again until FSU, when he played 29 minutes.

In that game, he scored a new season-high 13 points, grabbed 5 rebounds, had 4 steals, 2 assists, and a block.

NC State AdjO/AdjD differential vs. FSU was +58.8.

The Wolfpack have only two games with a differential in the 50s, both are when Terrance Arceneaux played major (23+) minutes.

In fact, in the 3 games Terrance has played 23+ minutes, NC State’s efficiency differential averages out to +47.7. 

In the 18 games where he played less, the Pack’s efficiency differential is +18. 

That’s a massive difference. But with the sample size not being large enough to signal a ton of confidence, it’s smart to see if there are underlying metrics backing this up.

Spoiler Alert: There are.

Look at Terrance Arcenaux’s advanced analytics in conference play.

Steal %: 4.7  |  Rank–> #1
ORtG: 150 |  Rank–> #1
Box +/-: +10.2 |  Rank–> #1
2pt %: 63.6%  |  Rank–> #1
3pt %: 54% | Rank –> #1
Usage: 10.6 | Lowest on the team

Need a translation?

He’s tied for 1st in steal %, he’s been the most efficient offensive player in conference play, and the team is doing great when he’s on the floor. He’s also not taking a ton of shots or turning the ball over, and when he is shooting, he’s making them. And he’s doing all of this while not needing the basketball in his hands.

Seems like exactly what the staff is looking for, and with Darrion Williams seeming to have found his groove offensively, maybe Wade feels a little more confident in having Terrance become a more prominent piece of the rotation. Low usage, high efficiency, low turnovers, and elite defense.

We’ll have to wait and see, but the fact that the team’s best overall performances have come when Terrance has played major minutes, in addition to the fact that he’s been grading out as one of the top guys during conference play, and understanding that the Wolfpack staff relies heavily on these type of numbers…

I’m going to bet it’s about to be ‘Terrance Time.’