NC State’s NCAA Tournament Projection Slips After Loss to #1 Duke

No one expected NC State to defeat #1 Duke last night, but a 29-point loss was certainly not the projected outcome.

So how did the blowout impact the Wolfpack’s 2026 NCAA Tournament projections?

Over at Bracket Matrix, NC State’s average projected seed heading into the contest was 7.94. Following the loss, that average fell to 8.83 across 132 different bracketologist projections (not all have been updated since the loss).

Here’s how some of the most accurate bracketologists currently see the Wolfpack.

Notable Bracketologist Projections

Bracketometry
Over the past five years, Bracketometry has been the most accurate bracketologist on Bracket Matrix.

They currently project NC State as a #10 seed.

For reference, the Wolfpack were projected as a #8 seed on February 28th.

Glazewski-tology (Ranked #8)
Projects NC State as a #9 seed.

1-3-1 Sports (Ranked #16)
Dropped NC State from a #8 seed to a #10 seed following the loss.

Jake Liker (Ranked #17)
Still projects the Wolfpack as a #8 seed.

Kevin Pulsifer (Ranked #19)
Dropped NC State from an #8 seed to a #9 seed.

What About Joe Lunardi?

Many fans follow Joe Lunardi, but his projections are more popular due to his platform at ESPN than their accuracy.

Among 186 bracketologists tracked in Bracket Matrix’s 5-year rankings, Lunardi currently ranks 125th in predictive accuracy.

Fans can view the full bracketologist accuracy rankings at Bracket Matrix, but the analysts listed above consistently rank among the most reliable.

What’s Next for NC State?

A win over Stanford on Saturday likely won’t improve NC State’s projected seed. The Wolfpack are expected to win that game, meaning the result is already priced into most projections. A loss would prove problematic to say the least.

If NC State wants to improve its NCAA Tournament seed, it will likely need to make a splash in next week’s ACC Tournament.